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Franmil Reyes 2021 Outlook


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I am pretty excited for Franmil this year. He made some improvements with his approach last year which led to more walks (O-Swing% down 5.4%, BB% up 1.4%). While his approach was better, he only hit 9 HR in 241 PA (versus 37 in 548 PA in 2019). Franmil is just too powerful of a hitter to only hit 9 HR in 241 PA. This decline can be entirely attributed to a 12.7% decrease in HR/FB. For some perspective, he had 119 fly balls in 2019. 12.7% is equal to 15 HRs, which would have put him at 22 HR (about what his 2020 pace was). If this normalizes to his career norms, we should expect another 35+ HR from Franmil.

His ADP of 147 seems like an easy steal. Steamer has him projected at 37 HR which i agree with based on the above. There is definitely some average risk, but that looks like it is already priced in here. I don't think he will hit .275 again, but I would bet on over .250 which is all that you would need at this price. If the improvements in bat control are real, he should still have a respectable OBP to go along with it.

He is slated to play every day at DH with very little other competition, so I am looking for him to be an everyday player. He is also slated to bat 4th behind Lindor and Ramirez, which is an elite lineup spot. Lindor may be on the move, but even without him he is still in a good spot. Given his lineup spot and the volume of plate appearances I am expecting, 35 HR and 120 RBI don't seem that far out of reach.

Edited by Sidearmer
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Franmil is an absolute steal this season at #146.  @Sidearmer's points are well noted, and in addition I think there's huge value to be found in the "DH-only" discount.  If we comfortably project him for .250 - 30 - 100 - 90, those numbers are equivalent to Chapman (ADP #112), Moncada (#83), and Baez (#71).  So you basically get the same guy at half the price due to the fact that he only qualifies at UTIL.  👍

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13 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

He's still eligible at OF in CBS I think...

 

He played one game in the OF last year, so I doubt he does...unless CBS decides to allow for 2019 games played for 2021 eligibility. 

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  • 4 weeks later...
2 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Do we expect CLE to play him in the OF or will he strictly DH? That OF eligibility would help...

Honestly I’m not sure about the OF pt but I imagine he’d get enough in most leagues to gain eligibility. Either way he’s a guy people should not shy away from just because of the lack of position eligibility. There’s a lot of value for that type of player that often gets overlooked. 

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4 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

Honestly I’m not sure about the OF pt but I imagine he’d get enough in most leagues to gain eligibility. Either way he’s a guy people should not shy away from just because of the lack of position eligibility. There’s a lot of value for that type of player that often gets overlooked. 

It does for me when I'm already keeping Yordan Alvarez :)

but otherwise I agree with you 

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  • 2 months later...

2 bombs over the weekend. Only 7 k's so far. If the guy can keep the K's down he is money.

 

It would be nice to have him get some starts in the OF.  The DH tag is his only downside. (ESPN)

 

 

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8 minutes ago, octapuss said:

2 bombs over the weekend. Only 7 k's so far. If the guy can keep the K's down he is money.

 

It would be nice to have him get some starts in the OF.  The DH tag is his only downside. (ESPN)

 

 

3-games in Cinci this week with no DH. Rumor was he was going to get OF-eligibilty in the off-season with lots of NL parks front loaded into the schedule. I don't follow Cleveland closely, so not sure if something change since Spring Training. Naylor seems like the replacement if the NL no DH thing holds true. We will find out this week if he has a chance at OF eligibility.

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36 minutes ago, Light Tower Power said:

3-games in Cinci this week with no DH. Rumor was he was going to get OF-eligibilty in the off-season with lots of NL parks front loaded into the schedule. I don't follow Cleveland closely, so not sure if something change since Spring Training. Naylor seems like the replacement if the NL no DH thing holds true. We will find out this week if he has a chance at OF eligibility.

OF eligibility would be amazing.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Holy **** I'm so excited for Franmil this year.  The crazy thing is that I don't neccessarily think this pace is unsustainable.  He has some of the best raw power in the majors.  He does tend to be streaky so he might go into another slump period, but his wave periods ("hot" periods) are some of the most majestic in the entire major leagues.  Every single pitch he hits is smoked or finds a hole.   Oh and his xBA is 292- I think people really underrate this aspect of Franmi's game.  He's not a Sano or Gallo, he will give you a decent BA, anywhere from 250-275.  

Only thing I could nitpick so far is his K/BB rate, but I expect that to normalize.  And just FYI he got a strikeout to a walk stolen from him by the terrible umpire today, so it should be at least SLIGHTLY better lol

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  • 4 weeks later...

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