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My Favorite player so I'm making the thread!

 

2020 Was a lost year for Moncada, but he blames a lot of it on Covid and I think it's fair to give him a pass on last year.

Could be undervalued this year as I think he will have a strong bounceback.

 

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Moncada is one of my favorite players too; I drafted him first overall by giving up quite a bit of value to trade for that pick!

His early mocks ADP is around mid 7th round; I think that's a bit too low and certainly undervalued. I could be wrong, but I would have picked him in the 5th round based on the 2019 stats and believing that 2020 is an exception and that he's recovered from C-19.

Outside of whether he has recovered from the fatigue due to C-19, I think a lot has to do with how La Russa harmonizes with the young players; also will he be more inclined to the running game? 

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The thing about the Covid excuse is Moncada hit like 5 HRs by mid August. How do you do that when recovering from Covid? He should have opened badly and got better when the season wore on. Not the other way around.

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10 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

The thing about the Covid excuse is Moncada hit like 5 HRs by mid August. How do you do that when recovering from Covid? He should have opened badly and got better when the season wore on. Not the other way around.

 

The more physical effort you exert the more fatigue takes its toll.  So, when he was more well-rested immediately after his recovery, he played better.  Presumably all he did in the immediate aftermath of having covid was quarantine and rest.  Then once he started playing, the lingering effects of covid combined with the physical demands of playing baseball and travelling wore him down.  

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On 1/3/2021 at 11:22 PM, OaksterDan said:

 

The more physical effort you exert the more fatigue takes its toll.  So, when he was more well-rested immediately after his recovery, he played better.  Presumably all he did in the immediate aftermath of having covid was quarantine and rest.  Then once he started playing, the lingering effects of covid combined with the physical demands of playing baseball and travelling wore him down.  


I don’t buy it. Look at the case for Freddie Freeman. Guy got Covid and hit a temperature spike of 104 and said he nearly died! 
 

But Freddie put up his best season ever, with his best ever OPS + He was also amazing in September and the second “half” in general.

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19 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:


I don’t buy it. Look at the case for Freddie Freeman. Guy got Covid and hit a temperature spike of 104 and said he nearly died! 
 

But Freddie put up his best season ever, with his best ever OPS + He was also amazing in September and the second “half” in general.

 

Freeman is arguably the best pure hitter in the game.  You could give him Covid and take away his bat and he'd still hit .250.

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On 1/5/2021 at 1:55 AM, KingJoffrey said:


I don’t buy it. Look at the case for Freddie Freeman. Guy got Covid and hit a temperature spike of 104 and said he nearly died! 
 

But Freddie put up his best season ever, with his best ever OPS + He was also amazing in September and the second “half” in general.

 

... you don't buy that different people have different after-effects of Covid?  Alrighty then.  Science says to tell you "I miss you, please give me another chance."

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1 hour ago, OaksterDan said:

 

... you don't buy that different people have different after-effects of Covid?  Alrighty then.  Science says to tell you "I miss you, please give me another chance."

 

That's science? it sounds more like guess work.  If Covid affects different people differently, might as well just look at stats alone.

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Yes, it affects people differently.

No, we can't predict how individual MLB players (or non MLB players) will respond to it, nor can we read much of anything into his statement that it affected him.

He thinks it did, and that's worth noting, but there's really not much we can do with it, so it's probably best to focus on data points that have actual predictive value.

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On 1/4/2021 at 10:55 PM, KingJoffrey said:


I don’t buy it. Look at the case for Freddie Freeman. Guy got Covid and hit a temperature spike of 104 and said he nearly died! 
 

But Freddie put up his best season ever, with his best ever OPS + He was also amazing in September and the second “half” in general.

I had covid. i know others that have had it. for me personally, i started bad but not ICU-bad, got better, got worse, got better, got worse. still feeling lingering effects after 3+ months. if i were a baseball player i could go out and play every day, but i sure as **** would not be 100%. others i know had it rougher to start but recovered completely shortly thereafter and were back to being the same person they were a month prior just like that.

the only thing to question about moncada is whether or not his body has been damaged by covid in a way that it didn't damage someone like FF, and that it will affect him in 2021 and perhaps longer than that going forward -- not whether or not it affected his performance in 2020, which it very clearly did. The lack of SB attempts, the barrel rate not even being close to even his worst previous year, the games where he looked like a stone statue at third with awfully slow lateral movement, not running out grounders and Renteria not getting on him for it, it all backs up what he said from the start about how covid affected his body.

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Not exactly, his K rate has always been terrible.  He was the same player last year that he was in 2017-2018.  Even in his breakout year of 2019, he strikes out just way too much.  White Sox are expected to contend and will have low tolerance for keeping him in the two hole if he strikes out 1 out of every 3 at bats.  

I think Covid is just an easy excuse for a guy everyone thought would take it to the next level. Including me.  I had him on one of my teams.  But I'm starting to think there's a deeper concern here.

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4 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Not exactly, his K rate has always been terrible.  He was the same player last year that he was in 2017-2018.  Even in his breakout year of 2019, he strikes out just way too much.  White Sox are expected to contend and will have low tolerance for keeping him in the two hole if he strikes out 1 out of every 3 at bats.  

I think Covid is just an easy excuse for a guy everyone thought would take it to the next level. Including me.  I had him on one of my teams.  But I'm starting to think there's a deeper concern here.

He made much worse contact with the baseball in 2020 than he did his rookie season when he had a different (and worse) approach at the plate and could not hit lefties if his life depended on it.

His barrel rate was cut in half from 2019 to 2020. Weak contact rate quintupled. This does not ordinarily happen to 25 year olds with his toolkit coming off of a near MVP caliber season (6 WAR in 132 games). His k rate in 2019 is just fine in today's game. 27%, when you can take a walk and can hit the ball 93mph on average, is not an issue.

Simplest explanation is the most likely. There's no reason to believe he would randomly turn into a weakling after hitting the ball nearly as hard as anyone in baseball in 2019.

If he's healthy, 280 and 30 is a decent projection. R+RBI around 200. SB is a mystery and unfortunately that's what's likely to decide whether he's worth his draft position. Might steal 4. Might steal 24. Who fkin knows. Depends on his health and whether he gets a green light to run in front of Abreu and Eloy. If he can get back to a 29ish sprint speed than he'll finally fall into 20 bases IMO.

Edited by sleepysock
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I would actually be happier if he didn't play at all or he was horrible all season.  If he had Covid and he was weak and could barely run, doesn't make sense to even play him.  His numbers were awful overall and the Sox were a playoff driven team.

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I remember a lot of anger from White Sox fans that he wasn't getting regular days off. It was on the list of reasons they wanted Renteria gone.

But anyway he had a WRC+ of 97 and played above average defense, so it's not like he was playing bad enough to be benched. 

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I'm with @sleepysock on this.  Occams Razor would suggest COVID had something to do with Moncada's 2020.  He got sick right before the second spring training and cites that as the reason for his 2020 slump.  I'm more able to accept that, than trying to reach a conclusion that the guy just forgot how to hit at 24 years old.

Here's a good article I found on him.  It doesn't definitively state COVID was the reason, but it does cite his batted ball profile was so bizarre, there's not really much explanation for it.

Yoan Moncada: Fantasy Baseball Beast or Bust? | FantraxHQ

 

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4 hours ago, 89Topps said:

I'm with @sleepysock on this.  Occams Razor would suggest COVID had something to do with Moncada's 2020.  He got sick right before the second spring training and cites that as the reason for his 2020 slump.  I'm more able to accept that, than trying to reach a conclusion that the guy just forgot how to hit at 24 years old.

Here's a good article I found on him.  It doesn't definitively state COVID was the reason, but it does cite his batted ball profile was so bizarre, there's not really much explanation for it.

Yoan Moncada: Fantasy Baseball Beast or Bust? | FantraxHQ

 

 

Yikes, I didn't know we were picking factions. Ok, I'll take Miyagi-Do if you take Cobra-Kai.

Like everything else, it's going to depend on cost.  There's a lot of High Risk players in and around Moncada's ADP. Moncada's ADP seems to be right around 75.  That's not chump change.  There's a lot of potentially great players around there. I mean look at a guy around there, JD Martinez.  If Moncada get a giant Mulligan due to an easy excuse than so should JDM and his ability to access video tape or whatever.  The only difference is JDM had 3 straight years of being a top 15 player.  Moncada never hit there.

Between Moncada's High K Rate, unreliable SBs, worry about batting order position and overall worry about the lingering effects of Covid, I don't think Moncada is a good pick at his ADP.

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19 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

Yikes, I didn't know we were picking factions. Ok, I'll take Miyagi-Do if you take Cobra-Kai.

Like everything else, it's going to depend on cost.  There's a lot of High Risk players in and around Moncada's ADP. Moncada's ADP seems to be right around 75.  That's not chump change.  There's a lot of potentially great players around there. I mean look at a guy around there, JD Martinez.  If Moncada get a giant Mulligan due to an easy excuse than so should JDM and his ability to access video tape or whatever.  The only difference is JDM had 3 straight years of being a top 15 player.  Moncada never hit there.

Between Moncada's High K Rate, unreliable SBs, worry about batting order position and overall worry about the lingering effects of Covid, I don't think Moncada is a good pick at his ADP.

 

Picking factions?  I was just agreeing with another poster.

And I don't think I disagree with you on his ADP, but that's cause I'm not all that infatuated with Moncada's value in the first place.

Was just trying to provide some more info on his somewhat bizarre struggles in 2020.

 

 

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Moncada recently addressed the covid stuff:

“The symptoms: the tiredness, the weakness I was feeling throughout the season, lasted for a few more weeks after the season ended,” Moncada said through team interpreter Billy Russo, addressing his recovery from COVID-19. “Thank God, I feel very good right now. I feel like I normally feel. I’m doing all my stuff right now. I feel I’m in very good condition. I’m feeling strong.”

So it seems there's no reason to believe the issue will linger into 2021. Good news.

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  • 1 month later...

Top fantasy prospect in baseball.  Posts a 140 WRC+ 2 years ago (aided by a .404 BABIP, granted). Loses a year due to illness.  Back and healthy at age 25.

Might be on every one of my teams.  

The speed is also nice, even if it stays around 11 or 12.  With everyone going nuts chasing speed, it's really nice to get a speed edge at 3rd/corner without having to pay extra for it.  

The 10 extra steals he'll have over a guy like matt chapman are worth just as much as the 10 steal gains people are reaching for, but these fall into your lap. There's an outside chance he steals many more, but even if he has the ability, it seems very rare that guys decide to run more several years into their careers.

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The thing I like about Moncada is that he has league winning upside while not costing that much.   What’s the worst case scenario... 250 AVG, 20 HR, 10 steals, lots of counting stats in a loaded lineup.  Okay, fine, maybe you took him 3,4,5 rounds early, but still valuable, he isn’t going to kill you.   But if he genuinely was impacted by Covid, and he reverts back to his top prospect form, you’re looking at a ridiculous upside of like 300 AVG, 25 HR, 20 SB in one of the best lineups in the majors.   Which is league winning and not present in someone like Bryant, for example (especially the SB upside).

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43 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

The thing I like about Moncada is that he has league winning upside while not costing that much.   What’s the worst case scenario... 250 AVG, 20 HR, 10 steals, lots of counting stats in a loaded lineup.  Okay, fine, maybe you took him 3,4,5 rounds early, but still valuable, he isn’t going to kill you.   But if he genuinely was impacted by Covid, and he reverts back to his top prospect form, you’re looking at a ridiculous upside of like 300 AVG, 25 HR, 20 SB in one of the best lineups in the majors.   Which is league winning and not present in someone like Bryant, for example (especially the SB upside).

Your worst case scenario in all 5 stats well above what he produced last year and 2017 and 2018. His 2019 was very lucky, with a very high BABIP and very high HR/FB. I think your projection is more of a baseline middle expectation for what I would expect from Moncada this year (and in line with the projection systems). If you are looking at worst case, it is more likely 10-15 HR, 0-5 SB, .220 -.240 AVG, and low counting stats (based on bad performance and being moved down in lineup). Maybe COVID-19 is a valid excuse, but its hard to believe when Freddie Freeman had by most accounts a much worse bout of COVID-19 and went on to have an MVP season. Banking on COVID-19 being the sole reason for no SBs and decreased production everywhere else is a lot to bank on, IMO.

I also disagree that 300/25/20 is a reasonable upside (and this is not league winning either, but that's another argument). 20 SB would be shocking to me, considering he had 0 attempts last year and he's had 12 and 10 the past 2 full seasons. I agree there is power upside for 20+ HR. While average he could feasibly get to .300 based on 2019, I'd be shocked if he gets there. The projection systems all have him around .250 which is what I'd expect.

With an ADP around 85, I will be passing. You can get Suarez 12 picks earlier with a much higher upside. You can get McNeil later who has a similar upside less SB, but a much higher floor.

Just my two cents.

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49 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

Your worst case scenario in all 5 stats well above what he produced last year and 2017 and 2018. His 2019 was very lucky, with a very high BABIP and very high HR/FB. I think your projection is more of a baseline middle expectation for what I would expect from Moncada this year (and in line with the projection systems). If you are looking at worst case, it is more likely 10-15 HR, 0-5 SB, .220 -.240 AVG, and low counting stats (based on bad performance and being moved down in lineup). Maybe COVID-19 is a valid excuse, but its hard to believe when Freddie Freeman had by most accounts a much worse bout of COVID-19 and went on to have an MVP season. Banking on COVID-19 being the sole reason for no SBs and decreased production everywhere else is a lot to bank on, IMO.

I also disagree that 300/25/20 is a reasonable upside (and this is not league winning either, but that's another argument). 20 SB would be shocking to me, considering he had 0 attempts last year and he's had 12 and 10 the past 2 full seasons. I agree there is power upside for 20+ HR. While average he could feasibly get to .300 based on 2019, I'd be shocked if he gets there. The projection systems all have him around .250 which is what I'd expect.

With an ADP around 85, I will be passing. You can get Suarez 12 picks earlier with a much higher upside. You can get McNeil later who has a similar upside less SB, but a much higher floor.

Just my two cents.

Eh I mean being physcially tired the entire season could be a reason why he didn't steal as well.  I don't really know why people are bringing Freeman in this thread, Covid affects everyone a lot differently and it's very plausible for someone to have long lasting effects due to the virus and some people not having long lasting effects.  Moncada saying he was basically lethargic the entire season is worth a lot imo.

I really disagree about both McNeil and Suarez fwiw. 

 Mcneil has a lot of downside at his ADP; at Bat X, for example, has him at 277 average with 16 HR and 7 SB projected.  That's really empty for a mid round pick, and I honestly think he could have less SB than that because of the mets's loaded lineup and because he's been stealing less each year.   And that's just a projection- what's his pure downside?  270 average with like 10 HR due to the deadened ball, no SB, bad counting stats?  I mean, he had a 405 xSLG last year, it's not THAT far out of the realm of possibility.  Plus, McNeil doesn't have half the upside Moncada has imho.

Suarez, on the other hand,  probably does have more upside than Moncada (40 HR anyone?), but also has a ridiculously low floor (200 average last year) and is on a team with a bad offense (won't neccessarily get counting stats) and has no stolen base upside whatsoever.  

I'm not saying it's a crime to want Suarez or McNeil over Moncada, but I just personally like Moncada here.  His projections are obviously taking into account his trash year last year, but if it actually was due to Covid, then his projections would be way higher and he'd probably be an even higher pick.  

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