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Teoscar Hernandez 2021 Outlook


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Typical Steamer, safest predictions possible. I agree with the batting average.  He still lacks plate discipline.  But he has such easy power, I can foresee 40-50 HR power.  I think he's kind of similar to Jorge Soler just with more speed.  I project a healthy season of .250-45Hr-15 Sbs as long as he's healthy.

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17 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Typical Steamer, safest predictions possible. I agree with the batting average.  He still lacks plate discipline.  But he has such easy power, I can foresee 40-50 HR power.  I think he's kind of similar to Jorge Soler just with more speed.  I project a healthy season of .250-45Hr-15 Sbs as long as he's healthy.

 

His plate discipline is extremely bad. Even if he's healthy I'll take the under on those HRs easily. He has that upside but I think the chances of him reaching that level is very low. I'd put him at .250 - 30 HR but not more than that.

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18 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

His plate discipline is extremely bad. Even if he's healthy I'll take the under on those HRs easily. He has that upside but I think the chances of him reaching that level is very low. I'd put him at .250 - 30 HR but not more than that.

A .340 OBP isn’t that bad. I wouldn’t look at career numbers with him as he made changes to his swing last off season that showed tremendous improvement and he wasn’t striking out as much. He was seeing the ball much better have changing his swing.  2020 is a small sample size but he looked good last year.

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49 minutes ago, TheBoatmen said:

A .340 OBP isn’t that bad. I wouldn’t look at career numbers with him as he made changes to his swing last off season that showed tremendous improvement and he wasn’t striking out as much. He was seeing the ball much better have changing his swing.  2020 is a small sample size but he looked good last year.

 

Plate discipline is much more than OBP. In 2020 he walked 3% less than 2019 and had a 15.7% swinging strike rate (14th highest of 142 qualified hitters) and 34.3% outside swing% (37th highest). He also had 16th worst zone contact rate.

He has power upside and could get you 5-10 steals and that's about it. The floor is extremely low.

 

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12 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Plate discipline is much more than OBP. In 2020 he walked 3% less than 2019 and had a 15.7% swinging strike rate (14th highest of 142 qualified hitters) and 34.3% outside swing% (37th highest). He also had 16th worst zone contact rate.

He has power upside and could get you 5-10 steals and that's about it. The floor is extremely low.

 

Way to take the absolute worst numbers you could find.  His K% was down 3%, slugging % up 100 points, OPS up 150. His numbers were up across the board which is why he was voted one of MLB Networks most improved players.  Numbers aside if you actually watched his AB’s this passes year you could see he was a completely different hitter. He was the most dangerous hitter the Jays had and probably still is.  

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9 hours ago, TheBoatmen said:

Way to take the absolute worst numbers you could find.  His K% was down 3%, slugging % up 100 points, OPS up 150. His numbers were up across the board which is why he was voted one of MLB Networks most improved players.  Numbers aside if you actually watched his AB’s this passes year you could see he was a completely different hitter. He was the most dangerous hitter the Jays had and probably still is.  

 

I didn't have to look very far - the subject was plate discipline and these are stats easily found under plate discipline on fangraphs!  When you're evaluating a player, why wouldn't you include things like 1) how often they swing and miss and 2) how often they swing at pitches outside the strike zone or 3) how often they make contact on pitches in the zone? It gives you a sense of how sustainable a performance is. 

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 I agree about the BA being a big risk and the SBs a bit of a crapshoot.  He is extremely fast though, same percentage foot speed as Mookie Betts.  Betts has way more skill at it but Teoscar could break out in this department.  There was a nice bump in SBs last year.  But of course TH was also on base more often.

 

As for the power, he's not a 30 HR guy.  Let's put it this way, his lifetime 162 game avg is 33 HRs in a full season.  keeping in mind, the Jays have mostly treated him like some kind of 5th Outfielder.  He's been given the poop-shoot.  No regular playing time and at bats and still 33 Hrs yearly projection.  Just Anecdotally speaking, as I mentioned back in 2018, Teoscar had just missed so many Hrs.  Just look at 2018 when he hit 7 triples.  I mean he's fast but he hit .238 in less than a full season and banged off 7 triples.  Not scientific, but given some cricumstantial evidence to my theory that he's been a long victim of Batted ball luck.  2020 just saw some of this batted ball luck even out.  

But yeah he has 40 Hr capability.  He's Jorge Soler with speed.

 

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19 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

I think that would be Bo Bichette

Not if you look at the numbers.  Teo was better across the board with exception of k% and average by 10 points.  Teo had way more HR’s, SB, and a better OBP.  Now I am not saying that if I was offered Bo for Teo that I wouldn’t jump at that but I am just saying numbers wise Teo did pretty good all round except for the k% which he did decrease by 3-4% last year.  If he didn’t make any changes then I would say fluke and short season but I tend to look more when somebody has improved and they actually made mechanical changes to get better.

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  • 2 months later...

Yeah there is some serious volatility in his profile --but whoa-- is there some massive upside and some real gains he's been able to achieve too:

image.png.4bdf3e09e6e5daf12f8cfeb61930f28c.png

I like his ADP, personally...serious profitability

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Statcast backs up the sound off the bat. Only judge, Stanton, maybe Cruz and a couple others have that sound off the bat. Seems like he’s been more patient in spring. Huge upside here even acknowledging K risk.

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On 1/6/2021 at 3:44 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

What the hell is blast% and sd(LA)?

It’s the standard deviation of launch angles, read more here:

 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/lets-talk-about-launch-angle-tightness/
 

https://sixmanrotation.com/general/dhh-meets-launch-angle

 

blast %, read here:

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/blasts-a-subset-of-barrels/

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  • 2 weeks later...
3 hours ago, TribeFoo said:

What are we looking at here? At least a week?

If he is not testing positive within a few days, I think he should be right back out there.

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Yeah him and arozrana have been my worse picks. Never pay for last years stats with a 30%+ k rate

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6 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

You can tell this 9 days into a season?

His lifetime track record isn't pretty either, in regards to striking out. His only "season" in his MLB career under 30% K's was his 41 game rookie year. If he can manage it, then there's peak J.Baez potential, but there's also AAA potential. 

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