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Anthony Rizzo 2021 Outlook


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<Sad trombone noise>

What happened to this guy?  Hard hit % is down, barrels are down, IFFB rate is up.  The guy still makes contact (doesn't strike out much), but the contact he makes is poor.

Prime Rizzo was a reliable .280+, 30, 90 & 100 and even a handful of bags.  Now, who knows.  At best, I think sub 30 HRs and 90 or fewer Rs & RBIs.  At worst, unrosterable.

With all that, he's still going within the top 100 picks.  One pick ahead of Max Muncy, 5-10 picks ahead of Alec Bohm & Paul Goldschmidt and a good 30 picks ahead of Moustakas.
 

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He wasn't all that terrible, K rate, BB Rate and HR's/AB looked well in line with past few years. BA plummeted.  Could be some BABIP luck, it was a very small sample size.

My Big concerns with Rizzo and Cubs players is who will they trade?  Will they trade Bryant, Baez, Contreras?  There could be a counting stats issue.

Second concern, he did lousy against LHP as usual. Small sample size but he had a sub 700 OPS against Lefties.  It was always his Achilles heel and the problem seems to have gotten worse.  

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1 hour ago, KingJoffrey said:

He wasn't all that terrible, K rate, BB Rate and HR's/AB looked well in line with past few years. BA plummeted.  Could be some BABIP luck, it was a very small sample size.

My Big concerns with Rizzo and Cubs players is who will they trade?  Will they trade Bryant, Baez, Contreras?  There could be a counting stats issue.

Second concern, he did lousy against LHP as usual. Small sample size but he had a sub 700 OPS against Lefties.  It was always his Achilles heel and the problem seems to have gotten worse.  

 

The HRs weren't that bad, everything else was rough.  150 game pace for 28 HRs, 67 Rs & 62 RBIs.  Blech.

I guess the question is, what does Rizzo have to rebound back to, to make a top 100 cost worth it.  Is 2019 Rizzo worth it?  Or, does he need to be more like 2017 Rizzo?  

I think I'd prefer taking the average hit with Mous 2/3 rounds later.

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I am probably out on Rizzo this year. Another case where the upside is not worth the price. His main value in previous years was the automatic floor, but now that that is gone, there isn't much value. Yet he is still being drafted like a return to his typical numbers is all but assured. 

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4 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

I am probably out on Rizzo this year. Another case where the upside is not worth the price. His main value in previous years was the automatic floor, but now that that is gone, there isn't much value. Yet he is still being drafted like a return to his typical numbers is all but assured. 

Yup. No reason to draft Rizzo due to their being no upside. Agreed 100%

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  • 4 weeks later...

His 162-game average for his career is: .271/.372 - 29 - 96 - 88 - 8 so it may be wise to temper our thoughts after 58 games in a season marred by pandemic, crazy schedules, and whatnot.  I think Rizzo is better than the above comments may say, however his draft price still appears to be inflated for standard/shallow leagues or non-OBP leagues.  Later you can pick up Moose/Hoskins/Bell/Walker/Santana, all of whom can put up that line minus 20 points in average or so.  Still, in OBP leagues, points leagues, or deeper leagues where consistency/floor is more valuable, I think he's decently priced perhaps even slightly discounted.

 

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  • 1 month later...

Not really fantasy related, but was it crazy of him to turn down a 5 year 70 mil contract with the cubs. I don't know if he would catch a bigger contract in FA.  Tell me if I am wrong

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1 minute ago, Picard56 said:

Not really fantasy related, but was it crazy of him to turn down a 5 year 70 mil contract with the cubs. I don't know if he would catch a bigger contract in FA.  Tell me if I am wrong

When did he turn that down, today? 

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2 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

When did he turn that down, today? 

Yeah, various sources are saying that. I know he likely wants something closer to 100 mil, but I don't think he will considering his age.

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Just now, Picard56 said:

Yeah, various sources are saying that. I know he likely wants something closer to 100 mil, but I don't think he will considering his age.

Yeah, tough call. He's not over the hill per se but he's what, 33? 

5/70 is probably fair but he probably feels like he is worth more to the Cubs as the face and captain of the team. 

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Just now, 2ndCitySox said:

Yeah, tough call. He's not over the hill per se but he's what, 33? 

5/70 is probably fair but he probably feels like he is worth more to the Cubs as the face and captain of the team. 

I could totally see that. And this is not me defending the ownership, cause I really don't care for the Ricketts. I wish they would just sell the team. He is definitely the face of the team and what he wants would be a reward for what he did in the past and not future returns since he's likely declining and been dealing with back issues. I don't want to see him go as a cub fan on the flip side.

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2 hours ago, Picard56 said:

I could totally see that. And this is not me defending the ownership, cause I really don't care for the Ricketts. I wish they would just sell the team. He is definitely the face of the team and what he wants would be a reward for what he did in the past and not future returns since he's likely declining and been dealing with back issues. I don't want to see him go as a cub fan on the flip side.

His agent is going to have to help him decide if they’re confident another team will pay him more than that. Someone probably will but could be a risk.

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4 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

His agent is going to have to help him decide if they’re confident another team will pay him more than that. Someone probably will but could be a risk.

That's exactly what I was thinking. It's sort of a low ball offer on the cubs part, but I also worry that he won't see that much dough on the market. But his agent knows better than me.

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8 hours ago, Picard56 said:

That's exactly what I was thinking. It's sort of a low ball offer on the cubs part, but I also worry that he won't see that much dough on the market. But his agent knows better than me.

On the score yesterday they calculated his value to the Cubs since he signed the team friendly deal, it was over 200 million dollars. I hate they are low balling this guy. All that he has done for the Cubs and the community, it's not just about production. He's the face of the franchise in what has been the best stretch of Cubs baseball in over a century. Get him to at least $100mil or risk a PR nightmare. But I'm guessing the f'n Ricketts don't give a rip about that...

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6 minutes ago, CardiacDO said:

On the score yesterday they calculated his value to the Cubs since he signed the team friendly deal, it was over 200 million dollars. I hate they are low balling this guy. All that he has done for the Cubs and the community, it's not just about production. He's the face of the franchise in what has been the best stretch of Cubs baseball in over a century. Get him to at least $100mil or risk a PR nightmare. But I'm guessing the f'n Ricketts don't give a rip about that...

The score talked about it again this morning and said that 5/70 was a crap offer for a guy who's been called Mr. Cub II

Strictly from a $ to WAR perspective, possibly fair. But it does look bad (i.e. cutthroat) for what he means to the fans as an ambassador.

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5 minutes ago, Dylanfan66 said:

I drafted him late in a 10 man.  Pretty happy with it in roto.

I think he's going to be great this year. Hope he plays with a chip on his shoulder. 

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7 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

The score talked about it again this morning and said that 5/70 was a crap offer for a guy who's been called Mr. Cub II

Strictly from a $ to WAR perspective, possibly fair. But it does look bad (i.e. cutthroat) for what he means to the fans as an ambassador.

 I can't stand the Ricketts, this guy is one of my all time favorite Cubs and it's going to kill me to see him finish his career elsewhere. I hope he blows up this year and puts up a .300 25HR 100RBI season, I know he still has it in him. 

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Contract Year Rizzo is about to be motivated. He got his ring, now he wants that payday. My main issue with him is lineup protection. Over the past several years, he’s been a bit streaky and a bit dependent on how Bryant is hitting in front of him. Bryant seems pretty checked out these days so who knows? 

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4 minutes ago, Dislimb said:

Contract Year Rizzo is about to be motivated. He got his ring, now he wants that payday. My main issue with him is lineup protection. Over the past several years, he’s been a bit streaky and a bit dependent on how Bryant is hitting in front of him. Bryant seems pretty checked out these days so who knows? 

We gotta hope Willson Contreras is the protection he needs. Expecting a big year from both of them.

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53 minutes ago, CardiacDO said:

 I can't stand the Ricketts, this guy is one of my all time favorite Cubs and it's going to kill me to see him finish his career elsewhere. I hope he blows up this year and puts up a .300 25HR 100RBI season, I know he still has it in him. 

Same here. Sadly coming to the end of quite the era.

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, South Jersey Bombers said:

Does he just not have it anymore? You would think he would WANT a new contract regardless of the landing spot next year. 

Hes traditionally a slow starter. Always has rough April (Career .240, hes next lowest month is September at .267) It's the unfortunate part of owning Rizzo for so many years. Much like kluber for whatever reason it takes a month to get going

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