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Fernando Tatis Jr. 2021 Outlook


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Expecting big things in the middle of the infield with Padres signing INF Ha-seong Kim to a four-year, $28 million contract.

Tatis Jr, after hitting .277/.386/.571 with 17 homers, 11 steals and 45 RBI over 59 games is primed for relevance in Fantasy and Real ball.

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Trying to put a positive spin on this situation, if at some point a South African crime lord chains him in a straitjacket and tosses him off a dock into the ocean, he'll be able to easily dislocate hi

If a fan catches his detached arm in the crowd, will he autograph it?

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Sadly, won't be on any of my teams (most likely) as he will be an early first rounder in pretty much all settings. IMO he is a bit volatile and a bit too unproven to warrant top 6 consideration. 

Don't get me wrong, he's a STUD, but where he is going... i just like the others over him :/. 

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Fernando Tatis Jr. 2021 Outlook
2 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

Sadly, won't be on any of my teams (most likely) as he will be an early first rounder in pretty much all settings. IMO he is a bit volatile and a bit too unproven to warrant top 6 consideration. 

Don't get me wrong, he's a STUD, but where he is going... i just like the others over him :/. 

 

I am in agreement for all redraft leagues.  I'm worried the K rate climbs back up to 30%, the BABIP stays normal, and we find ourselves with a .285/.350 guy with 25 HRs and 20 SBs.  That's a tragic scenario but I don't have those fears with Soto, Betts, Trout, or even Acuna.

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5 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

Tatis has 39 HR in his first 143 MLB games played... why would you ever only project him for 25 HRs?  Are you predicting they only play half a season due to a new pandemic outbreak?

Would it be all that surprising if young tatis struggles more and only hits 25 HR?

 

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1 hour ago, CrypTviLL said:

Would it be all that surprising if young tatis struggles more and only hits 25 HR?

 

I would be surprised.  The kid has all the talent in the world, plays in a great lineup, and has stat cast numbers off the chart.  His biggest blemish is his K% which he improved upon in a SSS in 2020.  His BABIP was low for someone with his speed in '20 and he still hit .277.  If he hits .285 I don't think there's anyway he doesn't hit 35 dingers.  He has that easy power.  That being said, at pick 4 if he went 25/25 you're basically getting Bo Bichette who's going in the early second round.  I feel that's the worst case scenario (barring injury) and it won't kill you in redrafts.  I mean is there that much of a difference between him and Acuna?  Similar careers so far.  Acuna might run a bit more but shows in their ADP.  As for track record Acuna and Soto, who are both going 1-4 often, have only been in the league one more year more than Tatis.  Would it be a surprise if Acuna Struck out 29% of the time and hit .250 again.  I think it would be but it could happen.

All that being said, I have no problem taking Tatis in the early first round. 

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On 1/6/2021 at 8:11 AM, OaksterDan said:

Tatis has 39 HR in his first 143 MLB games played... why would you ever only project him for 25 HRs?  Are you predicting they only play half a season due to a new pandemic outbreak?

Yeah at this point we have enough data to suggest 25 is very unlikely. I do believe he is the likeliest guy taken in the top 12 to break your heart with BA, though, so that is a real concern when weighing him against other hitters in the first round.

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They just found out how to set someone up for life at a manageable AAV.

There’s definite risk involved at 14 years for someone with a limited (but tantalizing) track record at the big leagues and some injury in his catalog, but it could also easily prove to be one of those deals that work out for the majority of its duration.

 

It will be interesting to get the full details of this one. Curious to see if there are any opt outs. As nice as $340 million is, if Tatis continues at his current trajectory, I would imagine there will come a point were he realizes he might "only" be making $24 million per season and realize there is more out there for him.

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8 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

If Tatis Jr. pans out like we expect him to, this will probably be an overwhelmingly great value for the Padres over the life of the contract.

And if it doesn't it will be far worse than the Pujols deal the Angels made.  This stuff is just plan crazy.  Baseball is living in an alternate reality to even it's fellow professional sports let alone real working people.  The bubble is going to burst one day.

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

And if it doesn't it will be far worse than the Pujols deal the Angels made.  This stuff is just plan crazy.  Baseball is living in an alternate reality to even it's fellow professional sports let alone real working people.  The bubble is going to burst one day.

Same person who said the Dodgers blew it by trading for Betts. 

Pujols deal didn't kill the Angels.  Failing on every free agent signing along with Pujols (Hamilton, Upton, CJ WIlson) and not developing any good prospects besides Trout killed them. Killed them in the sense of not being a great team.  The owner is still quite rich and makes money off baseball. 

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

And if it doesn't it will be far worse than the Pujols deal the Angels made.  This stuff is just plan crazy.  Baseball is living in an alternate reality to even it's fellow professional sports let alone real working people.  The bubble is going to burst one day.

Signing free agents to $300m type deals feels riskier at their AAV than extending young potential star players because of age. 

All deals have some potential bust element.  Older players typically have the last year or two where it's known they won't have the same value but it's incorporated into the deal.  Young players are underpaid early on in deals lessening the risk as they get older because the AAV is lower.

It seems smart for ball clubs to extend their young star players like a Fernando Tatis although they could have probably waited a year or two.  Feels like a statement on their belief in him.  This Padres team is looking good for the foreseeable future.  Should be able to compete with the Dodgers.  Both teams still have good prospects.

 

The Angels signed Pujols and never got themselves a front line starter.  They didn't have a farm system full of good prospects.  Questionable approach to building a winner.   Rendon was nice last year but they should have been in on Bauer, Darvish or Snell this year.

 

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Same person who said the Dodgers blew it by trading for Betts. 

Pujols deal didn't kill the Angels.  Failing on every free agent signing along with Pujols (Hamilton, Upton, CJ WIlson) and not developing any good prospects besides Trout killed them. Killed them in the sense of not being a great team.  The owner is still quite rich and makes money off baseball. 

I'd like to add, because it's been so long that I forgot (and just remembered via an article).... but back in 2016/2017 the Angels had one of the worst farm systems in recent memory of any team. I was in a league where over 300 prospects were owned and nobody owned an Angel back in 2016/2017.  It's not even a good farm now, but miles better than what it was before.  

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33 minutes ago, charger_ss24 said:

At the time he was a very low level prospect. Seems like an easy way to secure your financial future if baseball didn't pan out. At the time he was basically not expected to be a starter in the MLB. Honestly I am surprised more athletes don't make these deals, especially pitchers and college football players.

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4 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

At the time he was a very low level prospect. Seems like an easy way to secure your financial future if baseball didn't pan out. At the time he was basically not expected to be a starter in the MLB. Honestly I am surprised more athletes don't make these deals, especially pitchers and college football players.

Agree. Whatever the amount was that he got from BLA, it's life changing money for his family in the Dominican Republic. Smart of him to secure their future. Sure looking backwards it was a bad investment, but there was 0 guarantee he would've even made it to the bigs. I'm almost surprised more players don't do this, considering that you don't owe anything back if you don't make it to the big leagues. 

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4 hours ago, jspeco9 said:
4 hours ago, jspeco9 said:

Agree. Whatever the amount was that he got from BLA, it's life changing money for his family in the Dominican Republic. Smart of him to secure their future. Sure looking backwards it was a bad investment, but there was 0 guarantee he would've even made it to the bigs. I'm almost surprised more players don't do this, considering that you don't owe anything back if you don't make it to the big leagues. 

If true, yes, every single athlete should do this.

If true, this sounds like a VERY BAD AND RISKY business practice for the investment fund.

I can’t believe they would hand out free money to young athletes in the hopes they make it big.

I believe Francisco Mejia has/had a lawsuit against them.

If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

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10 hours ago, charger_ss24 said:

My question is why did he need to do this with a father who played in the big leagues?  Did Tatis Sr. go broke or do they not have a good relationship?  I'm sure he wasn't making chump change when he played.

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3 hours ago, knifeparty said:

My question is why did he need to do this with a father who played in the big leagues?  Did Tatis Sr. go broke or do they not have a good relationship?  I'm sure he wasn't making chump change when he played.

According to baseball reference, he made ~$17 million after retiring in 2010. 

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