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Fernando Tatis Jr. 2021 Outlook


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If a fan catches his detached arm in the crowd, will he autograph it?

Trying to put a positive spin on this situation, if at some point a South African crime lord chains him in a straitjacket and tosses him off a dock into the ocean, he'll be able to easily dislocate hi

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4 minutes ago, Brett Butler said:

Back to back multi-HR games off Kershaw and Bauer!!

Owning Tatis is way too conflicting. Either best time ever to trade him now, or risk selling low on your top-3 pick. 

if you sell him he goes off for  45 hrs  if you keep him he goes to the IL  every few weeks reguardless I do think the shoulder keeps him from stealing bases has much this yr so there is that

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10 hours ago, mks said:

if you sell him he goes off for  45 hrs  if you keep him he goes to the IL  every few weeks reguardless I do think the shoulder keeps him from stealing bases has much this yr so there is that

2 SB in his last 4 games, so 10-15 SBs as a floor is still not bad.  

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Perhaps the all time sell high moment. Especially if you have some sort of playoffs.

They guy still has a serious chronic injury that will need surgery at some point and he is in video game mode.

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This was tweeted by buster olney before he homered again and stole a few more bases:

From @EliasSports: Fernando Tatis Jr. has played 157 games–giving easy context to his statistics because that is just about one full season. Tatis Jr. has 45 HR, 106 RBIs, 29 steals. He is the only player in history who had at least 40 HRs, 100 RBIs, 20 SBs over his 1st 162 games

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With a strong week this guy could be in the running for NL Player of the Month despite spending 10 days on the Injured List.  Tied for the major league lead in home runs, and now up to 4 SBs with his two last night. 5 HRs in the last 3 days against Kershaw, Bauer and May.  

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8 hours ago, mevins31 said:

This was tweeted by buster olney before he homered again and stole a few more bases:

From @EliasSports: Fernando Tatis Jr. has played 157 games–giving easy context to his statistics because that is just about one full season. Tatis Jr. has 45 HR, 106 RBIs, 29 steals. He is the only player in history who had at least 40 HRs, 100 RBIs, 20 SBs over his 1st 162 games

The obvious problem is that it took 3 years to accumulate 1 season worth of games

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If I was an owner I would be selling so fast while you can still get 1st round value. It’s only a matter of time until he’s injured again and there’s a nonzero possibility he injures his shoulder and is out for the entire season.  Imho that risk isn’t baked into his trade value atm 

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

The obvious problem is that it took 3 years to accumulate 1 season worth of games

At least give the context...one stress fracture, a shortened MLB season, and one 10 day IL stint in a season we are one month into. Very different than only one season over 480 games.

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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

If I was an owner I would be selling so fast while you can still get 1st round value. It’s only a matter of time until he’s injured again and there’s a nonzero possibility he injures his shoulder and is out for the entire season.  Imho that risk isn’t baked into his trade value atm 

I agree. The issue is not ability (2-handed swing or not), but durability. As long as Tatis is in the lineup, this series is his potential. But staying in the lineup is a complete toss-up... and we're just a few weeks into the season.

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3 hours ago, cs3 said:

The obvious problem is that it took 3 years to accumulate 1 season worth of games

Most of that was Covid and baseball squabbling over money though, to be fair to the player. 

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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

If I was an owner I would be selling so fast while you can still get 1st round value. It’s only a matter of time until he’s injured again and there’s a nonzero possibility he injures his shoulder and is out for the entire season.  Imho that risk isn’t baked into his trade value atm 

No one is doing this in my keeper leagues, no discount at all. Trying to buy

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Zero reason to sell in dynasties, if this is how he plays when he's injured.  In terms of redrafts and selling high... yeah I guess if you're high, now might seem like a good time to sell.  I doubt you recoup proper value for him, but if he gets hurt for the year I'm immediately dead wrong.  He seems ok to me... and the doctors who are letting him play more importantly.  

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The reinjury concerns are valid but the imo also a little overblown (especially considering how good he looks since coming off IL).  I have  doubt The Friars would take such a huge risk with their $300 million franchise investment.  They do not strike me as that irrational of a franchise, but I could he wrong. 

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19 hours ago, 80version said:

The reinjury concerns are valid but the imo also a little overblown (especially considering how good he looks since coming off IL).  I have  doubt The Friars would take such a huge risk with their $300 million franchise investment.  They do not strike me as that irrational of a franchise, but I could he wrong. 

I think the timing of his return in time to face the Dodgers, while the Dinelson Lamet saga was unfolding in front of our eyes, made their motivations a little more mysterious. If they really think this year is their "window year", they are irrational, and agree they'd be have to be drunk to hand out money like that, so perhaps it is all blown out of proportion. However, in you are interested in trading him in a redraft now, a 1st round hitter and 2nd round pitcher is a minimum, but acceptable, return, IMO. 

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21 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

Zero reason to sell in dynasties, if this is how he plays when he's injured.  In terms of redrafts and selling high... yeah I guess if you're high, now might seem like a good time to sell.  I doubt you recoup proper value for him, but if he gets hurt for the year I'm immediately dead wrong.  He seems ok to me... and the doctors who are letting him play more importantly.  

It’s not that anyone is worried about his production, it’s that at any moment he could get a surgery that requires him to be out for a year.  Which would obviously tank his dynasty value.  Not as much as redraft value, but still quite a bit.

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2 hours ago, Richard Kimble said:

I think the timing of his return in time to face the Dodgers, while the Dinelson Lamet saga was unfolding in front of our eyes, made their motivations a little more mysterious. If they really think this year is their "window year", they are irrational, and agree they'd be have to be drunk to hand out money like that, so perhaps it is all blown out of proportion. However, in you are interested in trading him in a redraft now, a 1st round hitter and 2nd round pitcher is a minimum, but acceptable, return, IMO. 

That return would have been great while it was his peak value. 

At this point, the full range of his potential ROS is so huge (MVP or DL), I think getting a Round 2 + parts return would be worth the additional stability. 

Just the way I see it.. But this is an extremely unique case for sure. 

 

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On 4/27/2021 at 12:15 PM, Fbaseballgod said:

It’s not that anyone is worried about his production, it’s that at any moment he could get a surgery that requires him to be out for a year.  Which would obviously tank his dynasty value.  Not as much as redraft value, but still quite a bit.

I’m genuinely curious about this sentiment. In dynasty if he gets hurt for a year it’s awful but he’s 22. If you think of his value in terms of years he has like 10-13 peak years left so if you lose 1 he’s still better than anyone not named Acuna and Soto for the next decade plus 

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40 minutes ago, Daytraders2019 said:

I’m genuinely curious about this sentiment. In dynasty if he gets hurt for a year it’s awful but he’s 22. If you think of his value in terms of years he has like 10-13 peak years left so if you lose 1 he’s still better than anyone not named Acuna and Soto for the next decade plus 

Not if his shoulder is wrecked. Give him a little valley fever and see how his value does. There's a handful of things(position dependant) that tank dynasty value. 

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1 hour ago, mavsfan23 said:

Not if his shoulder is wrecked. Give him a little valley fever and see how his value does. There's a handful of things(position dependant) that tank dynasty value. 

I’m not sure I understand. The comment is specific to the shoulder injury. If his shoulder is ‘wrecked’ I assume you are referring to his current injury which appears to be a roughly 1 year injury. 
 

Now if you want to talk about the down time needed if a player contracts tuberculosis, whooping cough or as you mentioned- ‘valley fever’ then yes, I agree. Don’t think that is specific to Tatis or his value though. 

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10 hours ago, Daytraders2019 said:

I’m not sure I understand. The comment is specific to the shoulder injury. If his shoulder is ‘wrecked’ I assume you are referring to his current injury which appears to be a roughly 1 year injury. 
 

Now if you want to talk about the down time needed if a player contracts tuberculosis, whooping cough or as you mentioned- ‘valley fever’ then yes, I agree. Don’t think that is specific to Tatis or his value though. 

I'm saying a shoulder injury could be something that lingers for years or the rest of his life even if he has surgery. Not saying it will, but I'd much rather he tear an ACL or have TJ than mess up his shoulder. Shoulders and backs are scary for hitters. 

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49 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

I'm saying a shoulder injury could be something that lingers for years or the rest of his life even if he has surgery. Not saying it will, but I'd much rather he tear an ACL or have TJ than mess up his shoulder. Shoulders and backs are scary for hitters. 

And let me clarify to say, in no way do I hope that's the case, because he's great for baseball and a lot of fun to watch. Fingers crossed for him to be healthy, and a 7 game NLCS between SD-LAD. 

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2 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

And let me clarify to say, in no way do I hope that's the case, because he's great for baseball and a lot of fun to watch. Fingers crossed for him to be healthy, and a 7 game NLCS between SD-LAD. 

This is wishful thinking. Time to trade TATIS JR now. He has a 90% of re-injury on his shoulder sub. 

Prediction he gets hurt by end of 2021 - 100%

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