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Fernando Tatis Jr. 2021 Outlook


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Back to fantasy... I wouldn’t be comfortable drafting Tatis in the top 5.  He had a putrid last month of the season for a top 5 pick, which makes me think this pick has more risk than the industry is accounting for.  He really has had one unbelievable month of top production for his entire career.  And yes, I know his stat cast numbers are sublime and I’m not really that worried, I just would rather take someone safer for a top 5 pick 

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Trying to put a positive spin on this situation, if at some point a South African crime lord chains him in a straitjacket and tosses him off a dock into the ocean, he'll be able to easily dislocate hi

If a fan catches his detached arm in the crowd, will he autograph it?

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34 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Back to fantasy... I wouldn’t be comfortable drafting Tatis in the top 5.  He had a putrid last month of the season for a top 5 pick, which makes me think this pick has more risk than the industry is accounting for.  He really has had one unbelievable month of top production for his entire career.  And yes, I know his stat cast numbers are sublime and I’m not really that worried, I just would rather take someone safer for a top 5 pick 

Just a counter point and SSS but he was very good in the playoffs.  Maybe he was turning it back on again.

Edited by damana
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4 minutes ago, damana said:

Just a counter point and SSS but he was very good in the playoffs.  Maybe he was turning it back on again.

That’s a good point.  I honestly don’t have that much worry, but basically just enough worry to make me not want to t5 him for this year 

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On 2/20/2021 at 3:44 PM, Fbaseballgod said:

That’s a good point.  I honestly don’t have that much worry, but basically just enough worry to make me not want to t5 him for this year 

so who are you taking over him?

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5 hours ago, desert86 said:

so who are you taking over him?

Trout, Soto, Betts, Acuna, Cole, Ramirez, Turner, (Degrom if I didn't have a gut feeling about an injury).   So, I guess I would take him 8th?  Ramirez and Turner are similar players imho but less risk/reward

Edited by Fbaseballgod
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On 2/20/2021 at 10:41 AM, charger_ss24 said:

If true, yes, every single athlete should do this.

If true, this sounds like a VERY BAD AND RISKY business practice for the investment fund.

I can’t believe they would hand out free money to young athletes in the hopes they make it big.

I believe Francisco Mejia has/had a lawsuit against them.

If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

Mejia had a lawsuit against them that he dropped. He admitted that BLA never deceived him and that he was happy with their agreement. He even agreed to pay their legal expenses after realizing he was wrong and just trying to breach his contract. 

It's not too good to be true, BLA is taking on a lot of risk for a huge price. In Tatis' case, they never gave him "free" money, they purchased a portion of his future earnings.

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On 2/20/2021 at 4:05 PM, Fbaseballgod said:

He really has had one unbelievable month of top production for his entire career. 

Here's a month-by-month (ish) breakdown of FTJ's career:

3/28/19-4/28/19:  27 Games, 6 HR, .300 avg, 13 RBI, .910 OPS, 6 SB, 14 R.    

6/6/19-6/30/19:  21 Games, 5 HR, .383 avg, 15 RBI, 1.149 OPS, 6 SB, 26 R.

7/1/19-7/30/19:  24 Games, 8 HR, .314 avg, 17 RBI, .943 OPS, 2 SB, 14 R.

8/1/19-8/13/19: 12 Games, 3 HR, .255 avg, 8 RBI, .843 OPS, 2 SB, 7 R.

7/24/20-7/31/20: 8 Games, 2 HR, .313 avg, 9 RBI, 1.046 OPS, 3 SB, 7 R.

8/1/20-8/31/20: 29 Games, 11 HR, .313 avg, 24 RBI, 1.057 OPS, 4 SB, 31 R.

9/1/20-9/27/20: 22 Games, 4 HR, .208 avg, 12 RBI, .714 OPS, 4 SB 12 R.

 

I would have to disagree with you about the one top month point.  Last September was his only down month.  Still had 4 steals then too, so he can provide value even when he slumps.   

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1 minute ago, OaksterDan said:

Here's a month-by-month (ish) breakdown of FTJ's career:

3/28/19-4/28/19:  27 Games, 6 HR, .300 avg, 13 RBI, .910 OPS, 6 SB, 14 R.    

6/6/19-6/30/19:  21 Games, 5 HR, .383 avg, 15 RBI, 1.149 OPS, 6 SB, 26 R.

7/1/19-7/30/19:  24 Games, 8 HR, .314 avg, 17 RBI, .943 OPS, 2 SB, 14 R.

8/1/19-8/13/19: 12 Games, 3 HR, .255 avg, 8 RBI, .843 OPS, 2 SB, 7 R.

7/24/20-7/31/20: 8 Games, 2 HR, .313 avg, 9 RBI, 1.046 OPS, 3 SB, 7 R.

8/1/20-8/31/20: 29 Games, 11 HR, .313 avg, 24 RBI, 1.057 OPS, 4 SB, 31 R.

9/1/20-9/27/20: 22 Games, 4 HR, .208 avg, 12 RBI, .714 OPS, 4 SB 12 R.

 

I would have to disagree with you about the one top month point.  Last September was his only down month.  Still had 4 steals then too, so he can provide value even when he slumps.   

I meant unbelievable as in god like, like he was at the beginning of last season, easily the top hitter 

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2 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I meant unbelievable as in god like, like he was at the beginning of last season, easily the top hitter 

Fair enough.  You said he is not safe for a top 5 pick.  Seems like he's been pretty consistent to me outside of September, and as another user noted he heated back up in the playoffs. You can use whatever arbitrary goalposts such as "unbelievable as in god like" you want but the stats don't back up your point.  His hitting from 2019 prorates to a top 5 pick value if he had stayed healthy.  That is pretty unbelievable to me as far as rookie seasons go, and demonstrates that he has consistently been one of the game's best hitters throughout his time in the league.    

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2 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

Fair enough.  You said he is not safe for a top 5 pick.  Seems like he's been pretty consistent to me outside of September, and as another user noted he heated back up in the playoffs. You can use whatever arbitrary goalposts such as "unbelievable as in god like" you want but the stats don't back up your point.  His hitting from 2019 prorates to a top 5 pick value if he had stayed healthy.  That is pretty unbelievable to me as far as rookie seasons go, and demonstrates that he has consistently been one of the game's best hitters throughout his time in the league.    

He’s had 1.5 seasons (adding up to less than a full season of at bats).  The first season he was injured and had wild K rates and the second season he improved and then in the last month he sucked.  Beyond this just the fact he hasn’t shown excellence for more 600 at bats is risky in itself.   I’m just not willing to extend that level of risk for a top 5 pick.  If you want to, go ahead! That’s the beauty of fantasy baseball.  Good chance he pans out- I just don’t like taking risk in the first round.

Edited by Fbaseballgod
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Looking at September, his underlying stats basically say its bad luck.  His BA in September was .213, but his xBA was .283 and his xWOBA was .400 and he lowered his whiff% as well, all while scorching the ball.

If somebody is not familiar with Statcast, and just sees a few weeks of him not getting the desired results as making him too risky, jump on board and take advantage.  If he falls outside the top 5 players chosen, you have a steal.

A year ago I wrote about Machado likely having a rebound in 2020 based on the numbers, and I think the numbers support Tatis having a massive year again next year.  A very rare talent.

Edited by Hellgrammite
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On 2/21/2021 at 7:45 PM, Fbaseballgod said:

Trout, Soto, Betts, Acuna, Cole, Ramirez, Turner, (Degrom if I didn't have a gut feeling about an injury).   So, I guess I would take him 8th?  Ramirez and Turner are similar players imho but less risk/reward

In a 1 year league, I can't argue.

I'm a keeper, hes top 5 by alot 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Not sure what to expect but it should be electric.

for the teams signing these long extensions, do they not think about the possible work stoppage after the season and how baseball wouldn’t recover? 

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1 minute ago, Overlord said:

How the hell did he hurt his left shoulder anyway?  That slide earlier in the game?

I'm actually wondering if that isn't a typo.

I wondered the same. How do you hurt your non-throwing shoulder throwing? My guess is that is still sore from when he missed time earlier this spring.

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