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Fernando Tatis Jr. 2021 Outlook


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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

When has any player that says they will be back in 10 days actually been back in 10 days?

When they're in the best shape of their lives 🙄

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If a fan catches his detached arm in the crowd, will he autograph it?

Trying to put a positive spin on this situation, if at some point a South African crime lord chains him in a straitjacket and tosses him off a dock into the ocean, he'll be able to easily dislocate hi

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Tatis wanting to play yesterday allegedly. Not saying he's 100 percent, but feels good knowing he thinks he can play now. Can't be too dinged up🙏

All I could think of when I read that was Noah syndergaard 😬

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10 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Tatis wanting to play yesterday allegedly. Not saying he's 100 percent, but feels good knowing he thinks he can play now. Can't be too dinged up🙏

Does he think shoulders are like kidneys and only need one that works?

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Just read this on The Athletic (fantasy inside injuries), here are a few snippets from the article, it is pretty comprehensive-

"Fernando Tatís has been placed on the 10 day IL but hopes to return soon after he is eligible. This isn’t a smart plan for a few reasons. Tatis suffered a left shoulder subluxation, meaning it partially dislocated. An MRI showed a partial labral tear, which is a common occurrence when this happens. While he won’t shut things down and undergo surgery now, it is inevitable. The labrum is important for shoulder stability and acts as a cushion in the joint. So yes, I’m very concerned about this injury."

"Tatís’ shoulder problems date back to his time in the minor leagues. Toward the end of Spring Training his shoulder subluxed, and then this week it happened again. When this happens the shoulder is unstable and becomes more susceptible to future dislocations. While it’s possible to play through a labral tear, this is an injury that won’t truly get better until surgery. If Tatís wants to try to delay surgery and make it through the season he needs to spend a lot longer than 10 days on the IL so he can really focus on strengthening the muscles surrounding the shoulder. That left shoulder will be incredibly vulnerable, and the only way to reduce his risk of another subluxation is to get stronger. That won’t happen in the next few weeks."

"The other problem with Tatís trying to return quickly is that he can cause more damage to the shoulder joint. Right now he is dealing with a partial labral tear. He will be especially vulnerable when he takes a big swing or dives and lands on his left side. His shoulder is going to be unstable due to the labrum tear. If it pops out again he could cause a more severe tear or a new injury such as a rotator cuff tear or damage to the capsule. These injuries don’t come with great long-term results. If Tatís’ injury is limited to just a labral tear, he should be able to return in 6-9 months without any trouble down the road."

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It's a bummer of a situation as an owner.  You can't really trade him---you'll get what, 60 cents on the dollar?   So even if you know there's a lot of risk you have to just bear it for a while.

If he's back in ten days and has a hot week some owerns might pay close to full value, but I suspect many still won't.

I'm resigned to just having to ride it out.  Also worried that power and steals will be down, which really cuts into the value.  But he's a phenom and perhaps he's able to get through it 

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28 minutes ago, Whizzinator said:

Also worried that power and steals will be down, which really cuts into the value. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he came back and didn't attempt a steal all season.

Why would the Padres risk a potential season ending injury by having him slide into 2nd when they have a solid lineup behind him that can drive him in without the extra bag?

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3 hours ago, Whizzinator said:

It's a bummer of a situation as an owner.  You can't really trade him---you'll get what, 60 cents on the dollar?   So even if you know there's a lot of risk you have to just bear it for a while.

If he's back in ten days and has a hot week some owerns might pay close to full value, but I suspect many still won't.

I'm resigned to just having to ride it out.  Also worried that power and steals will be down, which really cuts into the value.  But he's a phenom and perhaps he's able to get through it 

60 cents on the dollar?  Maybe in dynasties.  In a redraft, I'd hardly give up anything for him right now.

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[...]

On Tuesday, GM A.J. Preller confirmed Tatis has "slight" tearing in his labrum, but there is no damage to his rotator cuff and he does not require surgery.
"It's just being safe and giving the left shoulder inflammation and some of the instability a chance to calm down," Preller told reporters, adding Tatis has full range of motion. "... Overall, the exam today was pretty uneventful." 
Preller said the team's doctors do not believe Tatis can make the injury worse by playing, though the Padres will place him on the 10-day injured list "to be safe."

 

I guess time will tell, but I'll believe the people paying him 300+ million rather than some random article read on the internet.  Maybe they are lying to the fans to keep up hope.  Guess we will find out in a few weeks.  Personally I set the O/U on May 1 he tries to come back.  10 days does seem a little crazy, but I guess anything is possible

 

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21 minutes ago, TheTruth024 said:

[...]

On Tuesday, GM A.J. Preller confirmed Tatis has "slight" tearing in his labrum, but there is no damage to his rotator cuff and he does not require surgery.
"It's just being safe and giving the left shoulder inflammation and some of the instability a chance to calm down," Preller told reporters, adding Tatis has full range of motion. "... Overall, the exam today was pretty uneventful." 
Preller said the team's doctors do not believe Tatis can make the injury worse by playing, though the Padres will place him on the 10-day injured list "to be safe."

 

I guess time will tell, but I'll believe the people paying him 300+ million rather than some random article read on the internet.  Maybe they are lying to the fans to keep up hope.  Guess we will find out in a few weeks.  Personally I set the O/U on May 1 he tries to come back.  10 days does seem a little crazy, but I guess anything is possible

 

I dunno man, I would say the dudes with a $300 million vested interest in a positive outcome are the ones more likely to play fast and loose with any facts currently available.

It is possible for the following to be true - people who do or do not own him in any leagues, and are or are not fans of his, can appreciate that a partial dislocation of the shoulder socket doesn't bode well for his availability this season, let alone his effectiveness.

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1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

60 cents on the dollar?  Maybe in dynasties.  In a redraft, I'd hardly give up anything for him right now.

[...]  if I could trade him for like, Baez, who went in the 7th round, I would in a hearbeat. 

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Fair, though I think I'd pay something like 50-60 cents on the dollar even in redraft because the upside is so huge if he stays healthy.

So, just illustratively, if you trade Marcus Semien for him and he craps out it probably doesn't cost you the league to go from Semien to replacement level.  But if Tatis manages to stay mostly healthy that's a huge upgrade.

There are of course different philosophies that come into that assessment too

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31 minutes ago, kwelch said:

This guy was swinging the bat two days ago?!? Man, I feel like this is not the thing to be doing right now.

 I was freaking out when he was playing 2 days after the first scare.   To be playing so soon after this seems like gross negligence.

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3 hours ago, kwelch said:

 

This guy was swinging the bat two days ago?!? Man, I feel like this is not the thing to be doing right now.

First thing I noticed in that video is the avoidance of a one handed follow through. The deadly trifecta for shoulder dislocation is abduction with extension and a bit of external rotation of the humerus putting that joint in a vulnerable unstable spot. I’d almost guarantee you they told him to start practicing doing two handed follow throughs now so he’d be use to it when he was in game action. Id bet money he comes back with that swing finish. 

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On 4/8/2021 at 3:36 PM, Whizzinator said:

Fair, though I think I'd pay something like 50-60 cents on the dollar even in redraft because the upside is so huge if he stays healthy.

So, just illustratively, if you trade Marcus Semien for him and he craps out it probably doesn't cost you the league to go from Semien to replacement level.  But if Tatis manages to stay mostly healthy that's a huge upgrade.

There are of course different philosophies that come into that assessment too

As an owner in one league I'd prefer to trade him, but only at the right price. I'd certainly want more than Semien for him, I'm thinking around Baez level at MI. [...]

Doesn't make sense for his long term value not to have surgery though. The Padres really are going all in this year even at the sake of their star SS's health! Shame on them.

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