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3 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Great trade for the Mets. The question is whether Lindor’s value rises in fantasy or stays the same?

 

Better question is how much will it cost to get his name on an extension in this economic climate.

The lineup is pretty good so I don't see his numbers changing much.  Getting Carrasco was nice.

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8 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Great trade for the Mets. The question is whether Lindor’s value rises in fantasy or stays the same?

 

Downgrade in ball park, upgrade in surrounding lineup. I would think its mostly a wash. Only downgrade I can see is if there is no DH and Lindor hits leadoff, he will probably lose out on some RBI.

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2 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Downgrade in ball park, upgrade in surrounding lineup. I would think its mostly a wash. Only downgrade I can see is if there is no DH and Lindor hits leadoff, he will probably lose out on some RBI.

 

I thought leadoff spot was reserved for George Springer...:-)    Nice problem to have if he signs with them.

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3 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

I thought leadoff spot was reserved for George Springer...:-)    Nice problem to have if he signs with them.

I’m not sure they do now. That’s a lot of money and they really don’t need him.

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Just now, Thenewwildone8 said:

I’m not sure they do now. That’s a lot of money and they really don’t need him.

 

They need a CF.  They are pretty far down the road in negotiations so I doubt they withdraw their offer.   Maybe the Jays get him.

I'm sure they have the projected Lindor extension budgeted already.   Another bullpen arm and I think they are pretty set.

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1 minute ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

They need a CF.  They are pretty far down the road in negotiations so I doubt they withdraw their offer.   Maybe the Jays get him.

I'm sure they have the projected Lindor extension budgeted already.   Another bullpen arm and I think they are pretty set.

Can they afford Springer on top of Lindor? They have Nimmo for CF.

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On 1/7/2021 at 10:54 AM, Hellgrammite said:

Isn't there a chance they keep Nimmo hitting 1st in that lineup?

While he isn't faster than Lindor, Nimmo is an elite OBP machine.

 

Roster Resource has Lindor hitting 3rd, with Nimmo leading off and McNeil in the 2-hole.  IIRC Lindor liked leading off in CLE however when I look at his splits batting 1st, 2nd, and 3rd through his career I don't see any numbers jump off the page in any direction.  So hitting him 3rd doesn't seem to be a bad idea on an individual level.

Then there's the team context: Nimmo and McNeil (and Conforto/Smith) are lefties while Lindor hits switch.  Again, Lindor is very consistent from both sides so it looks like if they use him in the 3-hole it'll go L-L-S-L-R-L-R-R.  If they put him at lead off they'll potentially have three lefties in a row (although Nimmo probably won't hit second).  Springer is a righty and would make the lineup absolutely obscene: Lindor-McNeil-Springer-Conforto-Alonso-Smith-Davis-McCann (lol at JD Davis batting 8th).  It would also give them a nice L/R balance.

Edited by En Votto Veritas
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On 1/7/2021 at 12:52 PM, En Votto Veritas said:

Hitting leadoff in front of McNeil, Alonso, Conforto, Davis:  💰 .285/.345 - 30 - 85 - 120 - 20 with room in the HRs and SBs

 The rest of their starting position players don't steal many bases. Makes me wonder if Lindor could end up with less steals.

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8 hours ago, dan said:

 The rest of their starting position players don't steal many bases. Makes me wonder if Lindor could end up with less steals.

 

That's more because they lack team speed than a non-willingness to run. Rosario and Gimenez (ironically the two guys gone) had modest SB totals based on their speed.

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On 1/9/2021 at 10:59 PM, Ecofolux said:

I don't mean to be a black sheep, but I would temper expectations about Lindor

 

Why? Seems like the consensus expectation is he returns to the level he produced at for multiple seasons before 2020...

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On 1/9/2021 at 8:59 PM, Ecofolux said:

I don't mean to be a black sheep, but I would temper expectations about Lindor

 

Really?  Over 6 seasons Lindor averages .285/.346 - 29 - 86 - 106 - 21.  In those six seasons he was second in Rookie of the Year votes, has 2 silver sluggers, and 4 all-star selections.  Statcast is red, he's only 27, and now moves to a better lineup with much better protection.  What needs tempering?

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1 hour ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

Really?  Over 6 seasons Lindor averages .285/.346 - 29 - 86 - 106 - 21.  In those six seasons he was second in Rookie of the Year votes, has 2 silver sluggers, and 4 all-star selections.  Statcast is red, he's only 27, and now moves to a better lineup with much better protection.  What needs tempering?

Gun-shy Met fans remember another 27 year old middle infielder who had 3 All-Star appearances, 2 silver sluggers and  very good stats over 6 seasons before dropping off a cliff.

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I'll play a little devils advocate here and explain why there MAY be some reason for tempered expectations...

First, I'm always, at least a little concerned when a guy goes to an NL team and bats leadoff.  I don't know if that's where Lindor will fit in, but that's where Rotochamp has him.  If that's the case, then I'm tepid on his RBI projections, which have never really been eye popping to begin with.  I should add, I had the same concern with Mookie Betts, and (at least for 2020) was dead wrong.

Next, he's a 27 year old who's had declining SB numbers.  25 in 2018, 22 in '19, then a 162 game pace for 16 last year.  Still at a 78% success rate for his career, so not a glaring red flag, but at some point, he probably doesn't run as much.

He's still gonna hit for power and score runs and won't hurt your average.  If there's some league adjustment factoring in, we could be looking at .270, 100 Rs, 30 HRs, 85 RBIs & 18 SBs?

I don't know, that is probably still pretty safe second round value, which is where he's going.

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5 hours ago, dcristia said:

Why? Seems like the consensus expectation is he returns to the level he produced at for multiple seasons before 2020...

Only 118 wRC+ for his career, changing leagues to a much more competitive division with better pitching. Statcast has him at .467 and .441 xSLG the past two years. He's not really THAT fast (I don't buy into 20+ SBs going forward).

I'll take the under on that 50th percentile (maybe .275 AVG though)1370572818_ScreenShot2021-01-12at3_33_44PM.png.a33df4f27d29125bd35567772a919504.png

 

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21 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

Only 118 wRC+ for his career, changing leagues to a much more competitive division with better pitching. Statcast has him at .467 and .441 xSLG the past two years. He's not really THAT fast (I don't buy into 20+ SBs going forward).

I'll take the under on that 50th percentile (maybe .275 AVG though)

 

I guess I'm fascinated by how projecting a line of .275/.330 - 28 - 83 - 99 - 18 is considered tempered (that's the 40% line with a .275 avg like you said).  That line is exactly what I projected in the third post of this thread except -0.10 AVG, -2 HR, -2 RBI, -21 R, and -2 SB.  We can agree the difference in HR, RBI, and SB is relatively meaningless, and I'll take the drop in AVG, so why the huge drop in runs?  He averages 106 per year in his career... why would he score less hitting in a far more potent lineup?

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4 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

I guess I'm fascinated by how projecting a line of .275/.330 - 28 - 83 - 99 - 18 is considered tempered (that's the 40% line with a .275 avg like you said).  That line is exactly what I projected in the third post of this thread except -0.10 AVG, -2 HR, -2 RBI, -21 R, and -2 SB.  We can agree the difference in HR, RBI, and SB is relatively meaningless, and I'll take the drop in AVG, so why the huge drop in runs?  He averages 106 per year in his career... why would he score less hitting in a far more potent lineup?

He could have 120 runs scored but it's just on the very far end of the realistic-spectrum, imo. The only time he scored that very high amount was in 2018, when he and JoRam both had career seasons together. He's averaged 100 runs person season, minus that peak 2018. Lindor is safe, great floor, it's just I don't believe 2018 is coming back. Basically his 2017 or 2019 is what I think will happen going forward, as he continues to lose some SBs. I'm not buying into the Mets being a juggernaut offense, Lindor had some nice 2-3-4 hitters behind him in Cleveland too.

I'm not saying Lindor is a bust, just that he's not going to post career #s. I think I might be splitting hairs at this point because I don't dislike Lindor, I just don't think he's an elite hitter.

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