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Andres Gimenez 2021 Outlook


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With the Lindor trade, Gimenez moves to Cleveland where he should be locked into an every day role. He appeared in 23 games at SS, 19 at 2B, and 10 at 3B last season, so he should carry all three positions in virtually all platforms.

His ADP right now is mostly irrelevant, but to me this vaults him into consideration at end of drafts. He has decent pop (8-12 HR?) and good speed (20-30 SB?), which given every day playing time and elite positional eligibility, he is someone to consider.

Roster Resource is projecting him as the lead off hitter as of now. Not sure if that will stick, but its another potential addition to his value.

I hope to get some shares before Spring Training as his value will only continue to go up as the offseason progresses.

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I like him, but I don't think there's a TON to get excited about

good runs/speed, low power, probably mediocre avg, lil to no RBIS.

Solid deeper league MI or end of the draft pick in shallower leagues

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On 1/7/2021 at 10:16 AM, Sidearmer said:
His ADP right now is mostly irrelevant, but to me this vaults him into consideration at end of drafts. He has decent pop (8-12 HR?) and good speed (20-30 SB?), which given every day playing time and elite positional eligibility, he is someone to consider.

Roster Resource is projecting him as the lead off hitter as of now. Not sure if that will stick, but its another potential addition to his value.

I hope to get some shares before Spring Training as his value will only continue to go up as the offseason progresses.

Agreed.  Excellent late source of SBs and could be a bit of an "accumulator" as well if he hits in front of Naylor/JoRam/Reyes all year.  Steamer has him for .254/.310 - 13 - 60 - 61 - 23 and I'll take over on the runs but the rest looks like a fair call.

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40 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Agreed.  Excellent late source of SBs and could be a bit of an "accumulator" as well if he hits in front of Naylor/JoRam/Reyes all year.  Steamer has him for .254/.310 - 13 - 60 - 61 - 23 and I'll take over on the runs but the rest looks like a fair call.

533 PAs seems very low for a full time starter that may lead off.  I'd give him about 100 more and a 27 steal floor.

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10 hours ago, 89Topps said:
Could start the season in AAA.

Looks like he's creeping up towards pick 100. I'm likely out at that price.

At NFBC, I set ADP from the date of the trade to today and I am seeing 166. This seems reasonable to me.

The service time could be an issue, but that depends on if they actually add another body which I don't know if they will want to spend to even do that. I'm also not sure how much they can gain as Gimenez appeared in 49 games last year. It would really be pushing it if they kept him down to manipulate service time.

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12 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

At NFBC, I set ADP from the date of the trade to today and I am seeing 166. This seems reasonable to me.

The service time could be an issue, but that depends on if they actually add another body which I don't know if they will want to spend to even do that. I'm also not sure how much they can gain as Gimenez appeared in 49 games last year. It would really be pushing it if they kept him down to manipulate service time.

Thanks for the ADP info. I was just going off the comments in that tweet thread where he went 119.  Will have to monitor if that ADP continues to rise.

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3 hours ago, 89Topps said:

Thanks for the ADP info. I was just going off the comments in that tweet thread where he went 119.  Will have to monitor if that ADP continues to rise.

If he was guaranteed to start in the majors I wouldn't be surprised to see it keep rising. As it stands now, I think 166 is a nice value. He is projected to be top 10 in SB per Steamer and has multi position eligibility at 3 premium positions. Would be surprised if he's not below 150 by March.

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  • 2 months later...

Reviewing the $5k nfbc league and saw him go in the 9th round.  Pretty crazy, as this is a stand alone and speed is not as essential. Ahead of Gallo, Carlson, Soler, Hoskins, Pham...

I don't really see a ton of value for most teams/leagues. There's quite a bit of uncertainty and it seems like we are banking on a guy who, if all goes well, is waiver wire fodder, except for the 20 or 25 steals.  I know 20 steals is nice, but it's not earth shaking. This is too early to start pressing steals imo.

Haven't we all owned guys like this, and then they do nothing for 3 weeks and we bench them, and then they pop off 4 steals in 3 games?

Especially with no overall, I'd rather take guys who can hit and just manage steals.  If you're running low in steals, maybe take Senzel far later, and use Hosmer as your corner. Take a catcher who gets 4-5 steals. Make sure your lesser OFs chip in steals, like 'Cutch.  You don't have to win the category.

If you must take a guy like this, Wong is going a lot later.  His projections are similar, except a few less steals.  But, he's going to a run happy team and there are no service time/pt concerns.  He's dialed in as a proven, every day major leaguer. He had 24 steals in 2019 so that's def in play and he's been hitting lead off. 

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He's getting a lot of buzz, but I don't really see him as much besides an MI play in deep leagues, and that's if things go well.  SS is still pretty deep. Like he could have a palatable average with 20-25 steals, which has  good value, but unless you think he's going to develop some power, this isn't a high upside guy. Doesn't walk much either. If he doesn't run a lot, this is a very empty player.   Feels like a shiny new toy player who hasn't burned you yet more than a budding star.  I could be wrong.  I was in on him as a prospect pretty early, but he just hasn't developed into anything exciting. Nothing against him, not trying to hot take it, but I'm just not excited about him.  He could be useful in 5x5.  If you think the power is going to develop and have reasons, let me know, that certainly changes things.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

He's getting a lot of buzz, but I don't really see him as much besides an MI play in deep leagues, and that's if things go well.  SS is still pretty deep. Like he could have a palatable average with 20-25 steals, which has  good value, but unless you think he's going to develop some power, this isn't a high upside guy. Doesn't walk much either. If he doesn't run a lot, this is a very empty player.   Feels like a shiny new toy player who hasn't burned you yet more than a budding star.  I could be wrong.  I was in on him as a prospect pretty early, but he just hasn't developed into anything exciting. Nothing against him, not trying to hot take it, but I'm just not excited about him.  He could be useful in 5x5.  If you think the power is going to develop and have reasons, let me know, that certainly changes things.

I'm a fan of Gimenez at his current ADP (166). I have him as a top 130 player personally. Picking him in the 9th round seems to be pushing it, though. To comment on a few of your points:

1. SS being deep: He is eligible at 3B and 2B as well so there is some value.
2. Power: I don't think he will be a 20+ HR hitter, but I do think he will be around 10. This is consistent with his past 2 seasons.
3. Upside: 10 HR / 30 SB is nice upside at multiple positions. He will still be 22 years old on Opening Day and was a top 100 prospect, so there is potential for natural improvement.
4. Walks: 5.3% BB rate is not elite but it's also not terrible.

I'm projecting Gimenez to be a 150+ game guy this year which should allow him to get 8-12 HR and 20-30 SB. At the low end of both of those, he probably still gets to enough value at his ADP to be worth it given the positional eligibility. I also think there is a discount based on his spot in the lineup (projected 8-9). This is another factor I'm confident Gimenez will overperform. Hernandez is injury prone, and Eddie Rosario seems like an odd fit in the 3 hole. The lineup will likely be fluid and Gimenez will get chances at the top of the lineup.

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19 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

.
4. Walks: 5.3% BB rate is not elite but it's also not terrible.

 

5.3% is terrible

 

20 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

2. Power: I don't think he will be a 20+ HR hitter, but I do think he will be around 10. This is consistent with his past 2 seasons.

10 is terrible

 

Sure he could be a dee gordon power with astudillo's walk rate which would be worse than this, but these are pretty terrible markers for fantasy,  

 

21 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

I'm projecting Gimenez to be a 150+ game guy this year which should allow him to get 8-12 HR and 20-30 SB. At the low end of both of those, he probably still gets to enough value at his ADP to be worth it given the positional eligibility. I also think there is a discount based on his spot in the lineup (projected 8-9). This is another factor I'm confident Gimenez will overperform. Hernandez is injury prone, and Eddie Rosario seems like an odd fit in the 3 hole. The lineup will likely be fluid and Gimenez will get chances at the top of the lineup.

Yeah if he gets 30 bags, that's a very useful player in roto, depending on the batting average and runs, could certainly be a top 130 player as you said.  To me that's the upside, everything has to go right.  He needs the prime lineup spot, he needs to hit well, babip gods need to be there, needs to get the green light on bases and produce.  It's all possible, but that's certainly not an exciting upside for me. 

His prospect pedigree was very tied into his defense I assume. I was really excited about him in rookie ball, his numbers were magnificent, including hitting for power.   He feels like at AB/steals play, which I don't has value but I'm not reaching for that.  Should be interesting to see how this goes, maybe I'm overlooking him, you make some interesting points.

I really need to see optimism for power increase, which is possible, he's young, for me to buy in.  He needs to be 15-20 home runs, or just steal a lot of bags. 

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There was talk of Gimenez starting the season in the minors.  This kid's defense is legit and will keep him playing everyday at the major league level.    He's young and will have some growing pains but he does have some sneaky power.  I'm expecting regular AB's and 10 HR's and 25 SB's this year.  His ADP in NFC confirms people like his chances to produce fantasy numbers this season.  Ahmed Rosario will not see SS again with this kid around.

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On 3/20/2021 at 10:01 PM, brockpapersizer said:

Yeah if he gets 30 bags, that's a very useful player in roto, depending on the batting average and runs, could certainly be a top 130 player as you said.  To me that's the upside, everything has to go right.  He needs the prime lineup spot, he needs to hit well, babip gods need to be there, needs to get the green light on bases and produce.  It's all possible, but that's certainly not an exciting upside for me. 

His prospect pedigree was very tied into his defense I assume. I was really excited about him in rookie ball, his numbers were magnificent, including hitting for power.   He feels like at AB/steals play, which I don't has value but I'm not reaching for that.  Should be interesting to see how this goes, maybe I'm overlooking him, you make some interesting points.

I really need to see optimism for power increase, which is possible, he's young, for me to buy in.  He needs to be 15-20 home runs, or just steal a lot of bags. 

If he gets to 10/30, that should be well above top 130. I do agree it would take a lot of things for that to happen, but the upside is more top 75-100, IMO. There is also some value in the fact that he is 22 and could naturally improve, although I am not considering that. Its also important to consider his price is at 166 right now, which is a pretty easy profit. If he just hits his baseline projections from all the projection systems (8 HR, 20 SB, .250 AVG), he is profiting on his price. The projection systems are also very low on his ABs which I think is just not factoring in the past week or so where Gimenez has solidified himself as the starting SS. The increase in AB is where I get comfortable in the top 130.

So I think you are right a lot of his value is tied to AB / SB, I just think he won't be a killer in the rest of his game.

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I was able to pop him at #233 overall in a long form draft from 2 weeks ago...right about when news started to spread that he was looking like the favorite for the SS job.

It is a points league, which is likely why he fell as far as he did. I just hope he hits well enough for them to consider a more prominent spot in the lineup.

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Doesn't change the fact that he could go 10-25 or something this year, but this guy really needs to be a better hitter to matter long term.  

 

Isaac
1:22
With Gimenez looking locked into the SS role in cleveland, who do you see ad the 2B in say 2023-24, seems like they have a ton of players that are pretty similar up the middle
 
Keith Law
1:22
I don't think Gimenez is good enough to block their parade of SS prospects.

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
2 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Been a rough week+ but showed some signs of pulling out of it yesterday and is hitting out of the lead-off spot today.

picked him up specifically for the steals but i'm finding it's hard to steal 2nd when you never make it to first.

hopefully he can get it going

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If Victor Robles for example, hit .260 17/32, that would be a great year for him and a "steal" in rd. 13 or whatever.   This guy has the very real potential to do just that as a Jack knife.  Not saying he'll do that as his floor is much lower, but that's probably not his ceiling ceiling either.  Give him some leash.

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