Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Luis Robert 2021 Outlook


Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, UberRebel said:

Ok but the point still stands... he has the ceiling potential to hit those numbers. Whether he does or doesn’t is a different story.

 

The man has exceptional power and elite speed. I think he’s a very flawed hitter but that’s not to say he can’t pick his way into that many bombs and SBs. It’s been done very less talented players

The other guy said that 30 / 30 was his "floor". I was responding to that ridiculous statement. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Hanghow said:

All the people here who don't understand the concept of a ceiling arguing semantics smh...

It has nothing to do with semantics and everything to do with you being wrong. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

It has nothing to do with semantics and everything to do with you being wrong. 

30 home runs is right in line with his projections, but okay ;)

Edited by Hanghow
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Luis Robert went 2-for-4 in Saturday's Cactus League game vs. the Angels, including a home run, a double, and a stolen base.

Advice: Robert's double and home run were both off Shohei Ohtani, putting the White Sox on the board early. Though Robert struggled with hitting sliders in 2020, today's home run was off - you guessed it, a slider. Being able to hit a wide range of pitches makes Robert even more dangerous than he was before. Robert now carries a .943 OPS this spring, and should make fantasy managers very happy this year. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

Anyone here think he breaks out big and hits .300-40hr-30sb?

I think is ceiling is high, but he has a fairly low floor to consider.

His SwStr% in the upper minors and majors has been alarmingly high, and his underlying power metrics are somewhat questionable.

As a prospect he has been well regarded, but his hit tool has always been his weakest tool.  I think .250 avg with 22HR and 22SB is his most likely outcome if healthy.  He could do better, but he also could be more of a .230 18HR 18SB player as pitchers started exploiting his holes like they did towards the end of 2020.

Classic high risk/high reward.  Buyer beware.

Edited by Hellgrammite
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Travis Burten said:

Anyone here think he breaks out big and hits .300-40hr-30sb?

.300 feels way aggressive. He'd have to cut his K-rate down significantly.

A breakout for him, without getting silly, I would think looks more like .270, 35 & 25.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/15/2021 at 9:48 AM, 89Topps said:

.300 feels way aggressive. He'd have to cut his K-rate down significantly.

A breakout for him, without getting silly, I would think looks more like .270, 35 & 25.

I'm just wondering if he really is a super prospect in the realm of the Acunas and Sotos. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/16/2021 at 4:26 PM, Travis Burten said:

I'm just wondering if he really is a super prospect in the realm of the Acunas and Sotos. 

i dont think you can make that comparison just based on age alone. soto and acuna took mlb by storm at age 19 and 20. luis was 22 during his rookie year.

if we can even assume players are these ages cough pujols

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Absolutely no idea on how I feel about this guy....

Obvious 30/30 threat....or at minimum, 30/20 threat....but his Batting Average and K rate are going to be the things that define whether he's can be a Top-20 player, or if he'll just hover around the 40-75 range in value.

56 games last year, 73 strike outs and a .233 BA....that's on pace for 200 K's in a 162 game season. Obviously, it was his first season and a weird shortened season at that...So not putting too much into that.

If he can get his average to a respectable and consistent .265 BA or so and cut down that K rate even a little, he should have no problem holding Top-40 value. He was taken 26th overall in my draft the other night though and that seems steep for a guy who likely won't hit for over .280 BA.

We'll see what happens though!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/16/2021 at 4:26 PM, Travis Burten said:

I'm just wondering if he really is a super prospect in the realm of the Acunas and Sotos. 

If there's one obvious thing they all have in common, it's the explosion off the bat. These guys don't hit "boring" home runs. All (3) make you want to stop and watch the AB in excitement as they are capable of magic, of wholly $%it did you see that moments on the regular. So in that regard, yes IMO he passes the physical specimen "I launch rockets" eye test like the other two. 

His physicality and exceptionally quick wrists remind me of Eric Davis in a way, of Ron Gant in another. Like Acuna more so, he just jumps off the screen w/ athleticism. He swings as hard as Javy Baez, but in a more controlled manor... it's controlled violence.

 

Will he develop into the high average consistent forces of Acuna & Soto, I doubt it. But he very well could be the next superstar. He's still raw, and we demand such excellence from these kids year one. Chi-sox seem to be coaching these recent guys up right and quality coaching is rare anymore, so that's a positive. Given he's barely 23 and has already displayed his 115.8 exit velo (ranking him 7'th on the list vs. Acuna 13'th @ 114.8, and Soto  29'th @ 113.3) I'd say he's special. If he can hit .250-55, I'd say the tradeoff between he and Soto of 25 SB's vs. a reduction of 25 RBI's & BA points is very fair in roto value... thus yes, I'd consider him a super prospect. "IF" he can learn to layoff the same pitches that plague so many RH power hitters, the tools are just falling out of this kid's belt and it's obvious when you watch him play. I'll avoid specific #'s, it's been covered, but he's got that "it" factor for me the likes of (Acuna/ Tatis Jr./ Soto/ Vlad Jr.) I'm happy to reach for him or trade the little extra to get him now before he's priced out of owning. If he hit's .280+ (just sayin...) his counting stats could be almost indiscernible from Acuna's, who just went #1 overall or highest priced in auction. These guys don't steal 30-40 bases very long, and we forget that. In keeper/ dynasty formats the speed alone for the next 5-7 years is pure gold.

Edited by LarryChip10
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/15/2021 at 6:48 AM, 89Topps said:

.300 feels way aggressive. He'd have to cut his K-rate down significantly.

A breakout for him, without getting silly, I would think looks more like .270, 35 & 25.

I'm looking at his ST numbers in comparison to his MILB numbers and I'm kind of puzzled at projecting this guy.  A k-rate and bb-rate this atrocious with his history of putting up gaudy numbers is pretty startling (usually a sign that someone is just a physical freak).  

You have to think it will get exposed at the major league level, though.  I'm thinking .255-.265/25-30/20-25.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is very tough for me to see him approaching even a .270 BA with his profile. But, I also don't think he really needs to with his tools (for the fantasy game)...

I am most concerned about the weaker contact he made last year (when not K'ing/whiffing)...still have to believe there is major growth potential for him yet at 23 too, getting all those ABs last year will help immensely...as well as the hitters/coaching the pale hose have in place. Not for nothing too, the Eloy injury opens up a more prominent spot in the order. I prob took him too early, but I can't resist the upside sometimes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

It is very tough for me to see him approaching even a .270 BA with his profile. But, I also don't think he really needs to with his tools (for the fantasy game)...

I am most concerned about the weaker contact he made last year (when not K'ing/whiffing)...still have to believe there is major growth potential for him yet at 23 too, getting all those ABs last year will help immensely...as well as the hitters/coaching the pale hose have in place. Not for nothing too, the Eloy injury opens up a more prominent spot in the order. I prob took him too early, but I can't resist the upside sometimes.

He has Jay-Z potential and is ascending... hes rostered on my lifetime keeper team as one of my three keepers...and I am ecstatic... you didn't reach...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

Was disappointed to see him dropped down to 7th in the order last night with Tim Anderson returning, but he had a decent game. Walk rate is essentially unchanged from last year in the early going but K rate is down. 

Would be nice to see him back in the top half of the order but I'm not sure who you swap him with at the moment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's early, but so far he's swinging more out of the strike zone, swinging less in the strike zone, and making contact more, so the approach actually looks slightly worse, but he's making more frequent contact. I don't know that there's much to be gleaned from that at this point but the approach issues seem to still be there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, mevins31 said:

Through the first month I am pretty impressed with Robert. 

I have to admit, I didn't expect .310 with 1 HR at this point in the season, although he has 10 XBH and his xBA is right in line with his actual BA, so it doesn't appear to be a fluke. He's actually under-performing his xSLG, so hopefully some of these hits start clearing the fence.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...