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Lucas Giolito 2021 Outlook


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Lucas had another great year in 2020 after his breakout 2019 performance. 

Most likely going as a top 10 fantasy SP this year you will have to pay for him in the top 3 rounds of a draft.

I am willing to pay for him as he is one of the safer options IMO. I don't see much risk for injury, he's now built up some consistency, is young and could considerably get a touch better. Innings should be there as well, which is hard to say for a lot of SP options due to the 2020 year. 

I'll be targeting him as one of my main options for SP1 as I doubt I will pay premium for the top 3 (Bieber/Cole/DeGrom) but will definitely want a top starter. 

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2 hours ago, sleepysock said:

Love him. Have him and Nola basically tied at #5 SP. Could also see him enter that hallowed top tier with slight refinement of his command which still gets away from him sometimes.


This. His floor is lower than a Nola but I really do think he has another gear to him. He’s been successful with mostly a fastball-changeup combo but his slider is really good too. If that pitch gets used more or takes a step forward he could end up in a higher tier. He also had a strong curve once upon a time and pitchers will sometimes dust off an old pitch 

 

What you gotta like about him is that he doesn’t need 96-97 mph gas all the time to strike hitters out. I think it’s something about his delivery. He’s also the unquestioned ace of CWS so they should let him get some IP (at least as much as a workhorse can reasonably handle after a shortened 2020 season)

Edited by UberRebel
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Yeah I think there's a decent shot he has a Scherzeresque second surge going from very good to great at some point.

I've only read one little article on Gio so far this offseason, but it appears he and the new WSox pitching coach Ethan Katz (also his old HS coach) are re-working his curve to be tighter and more easily controllable, something with less looping movement, so he has a 4th usable pitch. Given how much success he's had as a mostly FB/CH pitcher, adding that new curve (only threw 12 last year, essentially abandoning it) and helping him control the slider a bit better immediately takes him to the next level. Before the change became his wipeout pitch, it was the slider that got my attention given the high whiff rate and the unhittable nature of it when he throws one properly (lots of sexy twitter gifs), but despite being the pitch in his arsenal that's missed most often, it's the one that has for the last few years yielded the highest xSLG against. ........ Ok did a bit more googling and good news, he and the new p.coach are also working on his slider as well, trying to limit how often he hangs it high or misses his spots by a mile. As a former pitcher I can't speak highly enough of good coaches or teammates that know how to communicate the little things in a way that create an a-ha moment that can swiftly put a proposed fix into action. I nerd about about this stuff a bit and knowing that Giolito cited Katz for his career turnaround, I'm excited to see if he can become a 3 or even 4 pitch monster now that the two will be working so closely together moving forward.

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  • 2 months later...
  • 4 weeks later...

 

8 minutes ago, Chest-Rockwell said:

So, uh, what in the hell was that??  What happened out there today?

Take a look at his game logs over the past 2 years.  He has a blow up like this about once every other month on average.  I wouldn't be worried.

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9 minutes ago, Chest-Rockwell said:

So, uh, what in the hell was that??  What happened out there today?

Here in chicago during the pre game they said he wasn't a morning person. So I might chalk it up to that.

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1 hour ago, Picard56 said:

Here in chicago during the pre game they said he wasn't a morning person. So I might chalk it up to that.

That sounds ridiculous, but I could honestly see how a different start time could throw a guy off like that. Ball players are creatures of habit.

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21 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

That sounds ridiculous, but I could honestly see how a different start time could throw a guy off like that. Ball players are creatures of habit.

I don't think it's that ridiculous, some people are truly not morning people and take a while to get going.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Just doesn't look right this year. Velocitys down and not throwing his slider much.

Even his usually dominant changeup wasn't yesterday with only 2 punchouts total.

Not feeling good about him but he could still go on a tear if he is truly healthy.

 

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44 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

Just doesn't look right this year. Velocitys down and not throwing his slider much.

Even his usually dominant changeup wasn't yesterday with only 2 punchouts total.

Not feeling good about him but he could still go on a tear if he is truly healthy.

 

Yep had some of the same thoughts while watching against a very mediocre KC lineup yesterday, namely the velo being down. Mildly concerned at this point.

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great outing. He had some shaky command early but settled down. Change was excellent. Located the fastball. Slider moved like it should. This should be a huge confidence boost and hopefully the beginning of a hot streak for Lucas.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

He's taking off now, 3 straight Ws, 21 IP, 28ks, 1.29 ERA in that span and 12 Ks over 7 IP today to win against the Orioles. Detroit is next up so he's a good bet to keep it rolling. The buy low window has slammed shut, and is now locked with iron bars. 

Edited by Richard Kimble
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I admit I was a bit worried about him this past month but he's a professional. The stuff is too good and he was going to figure out his mechanics, release point, etc.

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