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Interesting fantasy outlook for Lynn.

Definitely a workhouse, but this year he will finally be going as a highish draft pick due to how brilliant he was in 2020.

He fell apart a bit at the end of 2020 and is now moving to CHI which is a worse hitting environment compared to the new TEX field. Also, one year older.

The calling card is he is an innings machine which is very rare these days. 

I don't think I'll be getting him in most leagues due to his higher price and my concerns with him. 

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I like Lynn, but the ADP of 61 feels a bit rich. He wore down at the end of the season and it was a short season, but a weird season so maybe excusable. 

FWIW he led the league in IP last year (80) so he was going deep into games consistently.

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2 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

FWIW he led the league in IP last year (80) so he was going deep into games consistently.

 

He'll have more Win upside in Chicago.  He's someone whose fb velocity is important to track.  I think he's useful but I liked him more when he was a boring value pick than this range. Certainly could have value there, just not a pick I think I'm making this year  right now.

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I like Lynn, but the ADP of 61 feels a bit rich. He wore down at the end of the season and it was a short season, but a weird season so maybe excusable. 

 

I don't know that it's exactly accurate to suggest he wore down at the end.  He had a bad start on 9/3 and a really bad start to close the season on 9/24 (both against Hou).  Just looking at those games very quickly, it doesn't look like his velo was noticeably down, or that Houston was hitting him remarkably harder than normal.  I could be missing some data, but I'd be inclined to chalk that up to Houston kind of had his number/small season flukiness.

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15 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

I don't know what this means, but maybe its significant?

It is significant. That start Lynn threw (9/24/20) single handedly won me a championship, absolutely blew up the other guy's ERA and WHIP. I like anyone pitching for the White Sox but I agree with Brock, he's going too high

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I've always felt he was overvalued and have been wrong more often that not. Still, I just don't like him as much as a lot of other pitchers around his ADP. If I'm wrong again, fine. I see a near 4 ERA guy who throws a lot of innings and gets a lot of wins and QS and a bit more than one K per IP. Obviously valuable. But I also see a guy who will be 34 soon and gave up a lot of HRs and was aided by a career low BABIP in 2020, obscuring the fact that he was merely above average and not elite. Now he's moving from a HR suppressing park to a HR inflating park. Me no likey.

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  • 2 months later...

Obviously the weak Royals lineup was part of the equation, but Lynn is always going to have the chance to go the distance when everything's working.  This was a good year to pay up for him because volume is going to be so hard to find in the SP pool.  Not casting aspersions on anyone who prefers the higher-octane guys who went in his range like Snell / Burnes, but if things are close, I always lean toward a track record of high volume because of how much it impacts the roto standings in the ratio categories.

13.2 IP so far this season and 0 ER, with the punchless Cleveland lineup on tap.  Giddy up.

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5 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Obviously the weak Royals lineup was part of the equation, but Lynn is always going to have the chance to go the distance when everything's working.  This was a good year to pay up for him because volume is going to be so hard to find in the SP pool.  Not casting aspersions on anyone who prefers the higher-octane guys who went in his range like Snell / Burnes, but if things are close, I always lean toward a track record of high volume because of how much it impacts the roto standings in the ratio categories.

13.2 IP so far this season and 0 ER, with the punchless Cleveland lineup on tap.  Giddy up.

I also think the royals are bad, but the bats have been good this year so far. Agree about workhorse SPs, love dudes like Lynn and Minor this year when young babied guys like Stix McKenzie will be lucky to get 5 innings in a start.

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8 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

I also think the royals are bad, but the bats have been good this year so far.

11th in the AL last season with a 91 wRC+, and that was with Mondesi.  Unless you think Santana and Benintendi are going to be the agents of change, I think that's still a very bad lineup that's had the fortune of piling up 28 runs in 3 games against perhaps the worst rotation in baseball.

But Lynn did his job tonight, and I'm bullish on him ROS.

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2 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

11th in the AL last season with a 91 wRC+, and that was with Mondesi.  Unless you think Santana and Benintendi are going to be the agents of change, I think that's a very bad lineup that's had the fortune of piling up 28 runs in 3 games against perhaps the worst rotation in baseball.

i think they're a better hitting team without mondesi LOL. I'm only about 25% trolling. Mondesi is a horrid bat but has wheels and defense.

I was just commenting about stats so far, I do not think they are good. Michael A Taylor might be a decent player though, compared with the JAG he's always been. Won't be surprised if he is a JBJ like dude putting up 2 or 3 war with full AB and swing change.

 

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23 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

This was a good year to pay up for him because volume is going to be so hard to find in the SP pool. 

Felt the same way about SP’s in general going into my later drafts, to the point I was budgeting $70 for a couple of aces (eg; deGrom + Lynn) to front my rotation in roto 5x5.   

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  • 2 weeks later...

Man shocked no one has mentioned this beast hit the IL today.  This one hurts I love me some Lance Lynn.

Also like to add how the F does he strain his Trapezius Muscle!!! Not to sound funny but he doesn't look like the weight lifting type and while I am not a doctor the only times I have ever had pain in my traps was from doing shrugs in the gym.  

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8 minutes ago, knifeparty said:

Man shocked no one has mentioned this beast hit the IL today.  This one hurts I love me some Lance Lynn.

They're saying it's a minimum stay, which would be very welcome news.  The team is definitely going to err on the side of caution given their playoff aspirations.

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