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Nolan Arenado 2021 Outlook


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I've been looking through Arenado's batted ball profile to see if there were any red flags that may have predicted his 2020 flop and I'm really not seeing anything.

Comparing his 2019 to years prior, his EV was consistent, his max EV was consistent.  Barrels were down.  Hard hit % was down a bit from '18.  LD% was down a bit, FB% was consistent/a bit up from '18.  Pull % was up a bit.  OSwing was up, ZSwing was consistent.  Contact % was up.

So, he was swinging a bit more and pulling the ball a bit more.  I'd say he was making solid contact less often.

So, do we think 2020 was just small sample flukiness?  Or, was it a continuation of a trend?

Obviously, his projection will change if he leaves CO, but the projection systems seem to buy into a bounceback, putting him around .285, 95 Rs, 36 HRs, 110 RBIs.  He provides close to zero in terms of speed, so his ADP has dropped.  He's no longer costing you a first round pick.  Pretty sexy value late 2nd'ish, especially if you maybe got a Turner or Tatis type guy in the 1st.

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Perennial top 12 pick now going at #34?  Yes please all day.

If you select his worst numbers in each category over his five full seasons (2015-2019) you get .287 - 37 - 110 - 97 - 2.  So that's the floor and oddly enough, if you toss in another 10 RBIs you've found Abreu's ceiling (Abreu is 4 years older as well).  Why they are going side by side is a mystery.  Huge value to be had here, maybe the biggest value pick in the top 50.

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  • 3 weeks later...
2 minutes ago, rasto21585 said:

With Nolan leaving, will Story miss his lineup protection in the lineup and bring his stats down?

Deff

I am factoring that in.

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49 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

Man, baseball economics aren’t pretty. Have to pay money to trade an elite player.

I blame the economics less than the leadership.  Just an absolute coward move by a dumpster fire of a front office.  So disappointing. 

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27 minutes ago, Gumbo_Ghost said:

I know [we] go through this with every Colorado player, but the home/road splits concern me as a STL fan.

Nearly 200 points on OPS and 59 on AVG

From what I understand about the Coors Hangover, it's moving from Coors to other stadiums and back that messes with you, adjusting to how pitches break there vs in their away games. I could be wrong about that but a few guys left Coors and were still good players. Matt Holliday and DJ LeMahieu come to mind. I think Nolan is a good enough ball player to adjust to a new environment and still put up solid numbers.

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1 hour ago, Gumbo_Ghost said:

I know [we] go through this with every Colorado player, but the home/road splits concern me as a STL fan.

Nearly 200 points on OPS and 59 on AVG

Man, you should not be not picking right now.  Congrats on getting a generational talent, enjoy watching him daily. 

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2 hours ago, Gumbo_Ghost said:

I know [we] go through this with every Colorado player, but the home/road splits concern me as a STL fan.

Nearly 200 points on OPS and 59 on AVG

Not having to watch marp at 3rd is gonna be sooooooo worth it bro. 

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36 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I think the psych boost to going to a team that at least contends and is a long time and respected organization will rejuvenate the juices not that the juices weren't flowing already.

I was thinking this, but have a hard time drafting based on that assumption.

The Coors Hangover theory would suggest any decline wouldn't be as severe as simply taking his road splits and assuming that's what he'll be.  Still very plausible he takes some hit.

I'm more concerned with him going to a weaker lineup.

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The downgrade in lineup worries me more than the Coors factor. Nolan is still one of the best hitters in the game and I think his current price has this baked in already. He’s still capable of putting up fringe 1st-2nd round stats easily. He’s currently at 28 on fantasypros composite adp which would have me stoked if I got him there. 

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In COL - 2303 PA, 136 HR, .322  - HR every 16.9 PA -  Park Factor 1.39

In SF - 267 PA, 11 HR, .267 - HR every 24.2 PA -  Park Factor 0.79

In SD - 256 PA, 12 HR, .287 - HR every 21.3 PA -  Park Factor 0.86

In LAD - 266 PA, 16 HR, .251 - HR every 16.6 PA -  Park Factor 0.90

In AZ - 268 PA, 10 HR, .280 - HR every 26.8 PA -  Park Factor 0.97

 

In STL - 98 PA, 5 HR, .278 - HR every 19.6 PA -  Park Factor 0.92

In CHI(Cubs) - 101 PA, 5 HR, .247 - HR every 20.2 PA -  Park Factor 0.93

In CIN - 92 PA, 3 HR, .291 - HR every 30.6 PA -  Park Factor 1.03

In MIL - 76 PA, 8 HR, .397 - HR every 9.5 PA -  Park Factor 0.97

In PIT - 71 PA, 1 HR, .269 - HR every 71 PA -  Park Factor 1.01

Leaving the best home park around, but also won't have to play as many games in bad hitters parks of NL West as often.  Overall, the NL Central parks look more favorable for hitters. 

He also gets the benefit of facing worse pitching staffs more often, SD and LAD staffs are the best.

He gets away from a team that never seems to want to compete to one that is trying to win.

I think it's just natural for some regression moving out of COL, but don't think it's going to be dramatic.  Let's say he was going to go .290/35HR as a Rockie, I know see him at .285/30HR at worst.  He has a great eye and will be re-energized moving to STL.

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On 1/29/2021 at 10:08 PM, rasto21585 said:

With Nolan leaving, will Story miss his lineup protection in the lineup and bring his stats down?

I would think Nolan’s numbers dip a bit too.

 

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