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Nolan Arenado 2021 Outlook


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46 minutes ago, Words said:

Does Edman definitely have an every-day job? Is he going to be the primary 2B?

Unless they resign Wong (which from what I've heard has a small chance of happening), Edman is the guy at 2B.  According to Roster Resource they are only carrying one other guy (Sosa) that can play an adequate 2B.

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29 minutes ago, damana said:

Unless they resign Wong (which from what I've heard has a small chance of happening), Edman is the guy at 2B.  According to Roster Resource they are only carrying one other guy (Sosa) that can play an adequate 2B.

Thanks. In that case, I agree. I doubt Arenado will quite match his production in Coors, but the dropoff shouldn't be as big as some fear. Going back and forth between Coors and games at sea level is trouble. Hitting at Coors can also lead to some bad habits or make it hard to recognize when a mechanical flaw is developing. Plenty of guys even out when they leave.  LeMahieu is just the latest example. 

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I have no problem with him going to StL. He just lands on another stacked team. 2020 - not holding it against anyone in drafts this year. I'd baseline him for 30 HR 100 RBI 100 Runs like usual. His 2019 was better than that.

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On 1/31/2021 at 8:44 AM, svdude said:

In COL - 2303 PA, 136 HR, .322  - HR every 16.9 PA -  Park Factor 1.39

In SF - 267 PA, 11 HR, .267 - HR every 24.2 PA -  Park Factor 0.79

In SD - 256 PA, 12 HR, .287 - HR every 21.3 PA -  Park Factor 0.86

In LAD - 266 PA, 16 HR, .251 - HR every 16.6 PA -  Park Factor 0.90

In AZ - 268 PA, 10 HR, .280 - HR every 26.8 PA -  Park Factor 0.97

 

In STL - 98 PA, 5 HR, .278 - HR every 19.6 PA -  Park Factor 0.92

In CHI(Cubs) - 101 PA, 5 HR, .247 - HR every 20.2 PA -  Park Factor 0.93

In CIN - 92 PA, 3 HR, .291 - HR every 30.6 PA -  Park Factor 1.03

In MIL - 76 PA, 8 HR, .397 - HR every 9.5 PA -  Park Factor 0.97

In PIT - 71 PA, 1 HR, .269 - HR every 71 PA -  Park Factor 1.01

Leaving the best home park around, but also won't have to play as many games in bad hitters parks of NL West as often.  Overall, the NL Central parks look more favorable for hitters. 

He also gets the benefit of facing worse pitching staffs more often, SD and LAD staffs are the best.

He gets away from a team that never seems to want to compete to one that is trying to win.

I think it's just natural for some regression moving out of COL, but don't think it's going to be dramatic.  Let's say he was going to go .290/35HR as a Rockie, I know see him at .285/30HR at worst.  He has a great eye and will be re-energized moving to STL.

great post but those park factors are wayyyyy off... Are those ESPN? ESPN has awful "park factors" which are really just home and visitor splits... For instance Milwaukee is a band box and Pittsburgh is a grave yard...

ParkFactors.com has much better methodology including a 5 year sample.

COL 138

ARZ 108

LAD 97

SD 86

SF 76

 

going to:

STL 90

MIL 118

CIN 117

CHC 105

PIT 86

 

This is a MASSIVE hit to home park but much upgraded road. Still hurts... 

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27 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

great post but those park factors are wayyyyy off... Are those ESPN? ESPN has awful "park factors" which are really just home and visitor splits... For instance Milwaukee is a band box and Pittsburgh is a grave yard...

ParkFactors.com has much better methodology including a 5 year sample.

COL 138

ARZ 108

LAD 97

SD 86

SF 76

 

going to:

STL 90

MIL 118

CIN 117

CHC 105

PIT 86

 

This is a MASSIVE hit to home park but much upgraded road. Still hurts... 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that Parkfactors.com link says the data is from 2010-2016.  I pretty sure that both Oracle field (Giants park) and Petco (Padres) moved in their fences.  They both play much more hitter friendly than they have in the past from what I've read.  However, I do agree with the premise that Arenado has a much more pitcher friendly home park but much better road parks to hit in.  

Edited by damana
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On 4/19/2021 at 7:36 AM, coldstream said:

Not much talk about him.  He's putting up decent numbers so far, maybe that's why. 

He is batting .256 and the underlying stats (.275 babip and a 35ish% hard hit rate) indicate that's fairly on point.  His OPS is something like .760, which for that contract is decidedly meh.  It's a really dodgy prospect to extrapolate stats this early, but a .265/80-90/25-29/85-95 stat line looks reasonable and right in line with what people expected post Coors as Arenado entered his thirties.

That contract will probably be a complete albatross in a few years, just like lots of folks (like me) predicted.

The Rockies organization seems to be incapable of figuring out that their home ballpark wildly increases the perceived value of many hitters beyond their actual skill level despite this being a fact that even casual fantasy owners realized long ago.

**I was listening to a Cardinals broadcast and they were braying about what a mistake it was for the pitcher to walk Goldschmidt so the "most dangerous hitter in baseball over the past 3-4 years could step up to the plate."  It's like there is a secret rule for MLB to not acknowledge the ridiculous extent to which Colorado distorts statistics.

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11 home games since the trade and the sky is falling. 
It’s a long season and it was baked into his draft price that he wasn’t playing in Colorado anymore. 
Every year we get to see the end of days posts in April and May ‘round here and it’s nice to see the difference tradition continue. 

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14 minutes ago, Smallball said:

11 home games since the trade and the sky is falling. 
It’s a long season and it was baked into his draft price that he wasn’t playing in Colorado anymore. 
Every year we get to see the end of days posts in April and May ‘round here and it’s nice to see the difference tradition continue. 

Yeah I am not buying that his productive days are behind him, I think his floor is still about .280 and low 30-ish homers.

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A lot of owners felt Coors made him.  I didn't agree but I am not so so sure after scrutinizing his underlying metrics the past few seasons.

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2 hours ago, Picard56 said:

Yeah I am not buying that his productive days are behind him, I think his floor is still about .280 and low 30-ish homers.

That’s just not reality. His career batting average on the road is .264 with 101 homers in 2300 plate appearances. That’s enough of a body of work to make his floor more like .264 (to be overly positive) with 25 homers. 

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5 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

That’s just not reality. His career batting average on the road is .264 with 101 homers in 2300 plate appearances. That’s enough of a body of work to make his floor more like .264 (to be overly positive) with 25 homers. 

Well... we can go there but if you want to really be honest you’ll have to do the math on all of the park factors outside of Coors in the NL west. Everyone’s numbers are suppressed in those parks (SD, SF, LA) and that’s where he played a majority of games. There were a lot of article that tried to break it down but it has to be part of the convo. 

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32 minutes ago, Smallball said:

Well... we can go there but if you want to really be honest you’ll have to do the math on all of the park factors outside of Coors in the NL west. Everyone’s numbers are suppressed in those parks (SD, SF, LA) and that’s where he played a majority of games. There were a lot of article that tried to break it down but it has to be part of the convo. 

Seems like pointless math since St Louis ranks right between San Diego and San Francisco in park factor and he’s playing a lot more games at Busch than those parks. 

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20 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

Seems like pointless math since St Louis ranks right between San Diego and San Francisco in park factor and he’s playing a lot more games at Busch than those parks. 

If you believe your are correct that is ok. 

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1 minute ago, ryno1980 said:

Or you could tell me how I’m not. That’s usually how that would work. 

You don’t want to do the math and I’m telling you that you should because your wrong. 
Your original supposition was that Arenado was not good on the road in his career. The argument (and math) says that while Coors was a way above average park, the games away were way below average in park factor. 
So his home numbers were over inflated by the home park and the overwhelming majority of his away games were under inflated. 
That means you cannot extrapolate those career away numbers and think your getting an accurate read on who he is. 

If your really wanting to dig in you can compare his new home park to the old one, which we all agree is a significant downgrade, but the majority of the away parks are all above avg parks in the NL Central which means he’s going to get a significant bump. 

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