Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Nolan Arenado 2021 Outlook


Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Smallball said:

You don’t want to do the math and I’m telling you that you should because your wrong. 
Your original supposition was that Arenado was not good on the road in his career. The argument (and math) says that while Coors was a way above average park, the games away were way below average in park factor. 
So his home numbers were over inflated by the home park and the overwhelming majority of his away games were under inflated. 
That means you cannot extrapolate those career away numbers and think your getting an accurate read on who he is. 

If your really wanting to dig in you can compare his new home park to the old one, which we all agree is a significant downgrade, but the majority of the away parks are all above avg parks in the NL Central which means he’s going to get a significant bump. 

I’m not wrong. I don’t want to do the math because it’s pointless. He would play a total of 27 games per year in SF, SD and LA. 
St Louis is basically a wash with SD and SF for runs and a worse home run park. Dodger Stadium has been rated as neutral in some recent seasons. 
He will play 81 games there, that’s three times as many (if you want to see some math.)

Not to mention, Wrigley can be a negative for home runs, depending on the time of year. PNC is lower half. 

Show me the math that gives him a significant bump?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

I’m not wrong. I don’t want to do the math because it’s pointless. He would play a total of 27 games per year in SF, SD and LA. 
St Louis is basically a wash with SD and SF for runs and a worse home run park. Dodger Stadium has been rated as neutral in some recent seasons. 
He will play 81 games there, that’s three times as many (if you want to see some math.)

Not to mention, Wrigley can be a negative for home runs, depending on the time of year. PNC is lower half. 

Show me the math that gives him a significant bump?

I’m going to take the easy road because I don’t care enough to prove it to you. 
 

read this article:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/nolan-arenado-coors-field-effect-analysis.html
 

Pay especially close attention to two things. 
1. Matt Holidays move to STL 

2. Specifically what happened to his (and everyone else’s) road numbers after leaving the Rockies  

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Smallball said:

I’m going to take the easy road because I don’t care enough to prove it to you. 
 

read this article:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/nolan-arenado-coors-field-effect-analysis.html
 

Pay especially close attention to two things. 
1. Matt Holidays move to STL 

2. Specifically what happened to his (and everyone else’s) road numbers after leaving the Rockies  

 

 

 

 

Lemahieu is a different situation. As Petriello says in the article, he was simply an improved hitter at the end of his tenure in Colorado. 
 

Matt Holliday went from a guy that averaged 30 homers, 110 RBIs over his last four years in Colorado to 24 homers, 95 RBI in St Louis. He’s also a much lower fly ball rate guy (about 8 percent lower for his career) than Arenado, something Petriello fails to address. 
 

Back to the original argument...
Looking at 2019-20, Arenado was a .243 hitter on the road. Even if that jumps, his floor is CLEARLY lower than .280. Not to say he won’t hit .280, but my thought is that would be closer to his ceiling. 

Edited by ryno1980
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ryno1980 said:

That’s just not reality. His career batting average on the road is .264 with 101 homers in 2300 plate appearances. That’s enough of a body of work to make his floor more like .264 (to be overly positive) with 25 homers. 

Rockies hitters tend to suffer a "hangover" effect from playing their home games in Denver and then go on the road. Matt Holiday and Dj LeMahieu seemed to settle in just nicely outside of once they were away from Coors. I would put Arenado in that same class of hitters. If he falls on his face for the entire year, I'll concede that maybe he was a product of Coors the whole time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

Rockies hitters tend to suffer a "hangover" effect from playing their home games in Denver and then go on the road. Matt Holiday and Dj LeMahieu seemed to settle in just nicely outside of once they were away from Coors. I would put Arenado in that same class of hitters. If he falls on his face for the entire year, I'll concede that maybe he was a product of Coors the whole time.

It’s a lost cause trying to explain this. The Athletic had a great article with Blackmon on how bad it is and how he had to get the team to try and doing something about it this year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

Rockies hitters tend to suffer a "hangover" effect from playing their home games in Denver and then go on the road. Matt Holiday and Dj LeMahieu seemed to settle in just nicely outside of once they were away from Coors. I would put Arenado in that same class of hitters. If he falls on his face for the entire year, I'll concede that maybe he was a product of Coors the whole time.

Sure, I get it. He’s not in the same class though. Holliday hit over .300 on the road multiple seasons during his time in Colorado.  Arenado’s best was .281 in 2017 with several .240/.250 numbers to go with it.

 

6 minutes ago, Smallball said:

It’s a lost cause trying to explain this. The Athletic had a great article with Blackmon on how bad it is and how he had to get the team to try and doing something about it this year. 

It’s not a lost cause, there’s no need to act like you’ve found some foolproof new idea that proves without a shadow of a doubt that it will apply here for Arenado. It’s certainly a viable theory. 
Saying a guy’s floor is .280 is a leap I wouldn’t take based on Matt Holliday and DJ Lemahieu, who are different types of hitters. 

Edited by ryno1980
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

Sure, I get it. He’s not in the same class though. Holliday hit over .300 on the road multiple seasons during his time in Colorado.  Arenado’s best was .281 in 2017 with several .240/.250 numbers to go with it.

 

It’s not a lost cause, there’s no need to act like you’ve found some foolproof new idea that proves without a shadow of a doubt that it will apply here for Arenado. It’s certainly a viable theory. 
Saying a guy’s floor is .280 is a leap I wouldn’t take based on Matt Holliday and DJ Lemahieu, who are different types of hitters. 

Show me where I’ve said Arenado has a floor (or ceiling) of anything in this thread. 
You are literally arguing with yourself at this point. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Smallball said:

Show me where I’ve said Arenado has a floor (or ceiling) of anything in this thread. 
You are literally arguing with yourself at this point. 

No, my first reply was to Picard saying his floor was .280. Def not arguing with myself.
I also never said he would hit exactly what his road averages were either, but that seemed to be your angle. 

Edited by ryno1980
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nolan Arenado hit a three-run homer Monday in the Cardinals' narrow 6-5 victory over the Mets.

Arenado has six hits, five for extra bases, in his last four games, pushing his OPS back up to .821. The homer was his fifth in 123 plate appearances this season. He's driven in 21 runs through 29 games.

 

He's starting to get going as of late.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Brye said:

Coors field who? Dude heating up big time 

ik its easy to say after he homers in 3 straight but to think he wasnt a great hitter and only/mainly a product of coors is laughable. see dj, holliday (cargo and tulo where already washed up when they left)

 

265 hitter 820 ops projections ha. really hope i didnt jinx him

 

 

Edited by colepenhagen
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

ik its easy to say after he homers in 3 straight but to think he wasnt a great hitter and only/mainly a product of coors is laughable. see dj, holliday (cargo and tulo where already washed up when they left)

 

265 hitter 820 ops projections ha. really hope i didnt jinx him

 

 

Exactly , this dude is a career 290-300 hitter with 35+ bombs on average. He’s in his prime now and honestly this dude has been blasting shots, he had so many deep doubles 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 months later...

He's still having a productive season, but its been going in the wrong direction of late; he showed visible frustration tonight striking out in a key spot with men on in the 7th inning, and is 6/37 in the past 15 days, with 1 HR and 2 RBI. Its a slump he can surely bust out of, but his OPS is below .800 for the first time in a while. Teammate Paul Goldschmidt's numbers have been on an upswing of late and are near identical to Arenado's right now, but we've seen Goldy in decline for years. Overall, Arenado's steep decline out of Coors is more precipitous than expected, as the numbers are down across the board and trending downward.

Edited by Richard Kimble
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Richard Kimble said:

He's still having a productive season, but its been going in the wrong direction of late; he showed visible frustration tonight striking out in a key spot with men on in the 7th inning, and is 6/37 in the past 15 days, with 1 HR and 2 RBI. Its a slump he can surely bust out of, but his OPS is below .800 for the first time in a while. Teammate Paul Goldschmidt's numbers have been on an upswing of late and are near identical to Arenado's right now, but we've seen Goldy in decline for years. Overall, Arenado's steep decline out of Coors is more precipitous than expected, as the numbers are down across the board and trending downward.

Not a keeper anymore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To start, I am a huge baseball analytics fan. OPS+ has been my stalwart measure of hitting value. However, it is tough for me to believe Arenado is “park adjusted” 90% of the player he was in 2017-2019 (avg OPS+ of 131). He kinda freaking sucks this year and OPS+ seems to way overvalue the Coors Field Effect. 
 

Prove me wrong please. 😘

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have a feeling he has another hot streak in him.  Seems like as soon as people come into a player thread to trash him, a hot streak ensues.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, B&F said:

Have a feeling he has another hot streak in him.  Seems like as soon as people come into a player thread to trash him, a hot streak ensues.

Its hard to trash him when he's still likely going to be a 30 HR, 100 RBI guy, but its a far far cry from the player who was putting up 40 HR, 130 RBI, 100+ Rs, .300 BA seasons for the past 5 years, when he was easily a top 20 player in the game. His ranking dropped to the 40s this year to account for the loss of Coors, but many managers avoided him, and are probably glad they did so. He's going to have a hard time returning full value on his ADP. Plenty of time left to turn it around, but he's pressing at the moment, with his team in a free fall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I felt like I overpaid for him on draft day and was kicking myself but overall I’m reasonably satisfied. I don’t think anyone was expecting Coors numbers and that was baked in to the price on draft day. He’s performing like a high floor power guy with solid counting stats. He’s also been better than a few guys drafted in his range or higher so could be worse. I also do think he has another hot steak in him.

That being said I won’t be keeping him and may try to deal him later. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JetsNetsYanks90 said:

If y'all had Nolan in a dynasty league and was offered Rodon for him, would you pull the trigger?

Proceed to the bench coach forum for these kinds of questions for future reference. Its very dependent upon your league settings, standings, but in a vacuum, if you're competing for next year and get to keep Rodon in the round he was drafted in, round 22 or later, then yes, its a reasonable move.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...