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DJ LeMahieu 2021 Outlook


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DJ wanted Donaldson money.  He compromised and added the final two years to lower the AAV.   This allows the Yankees to stay under the luxury tax & the flexibility to sign a pitcher this year.  They wanted each other and got it done. 

Quite clear every team wants to stay under the threshold these days.....even the Yankees.

 

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At $15 million per season, Yanks should be happy with it for the duration, IMO. He'll probably lose that power but I think he will remain a solid player even when he is 37, 38 years old. And for now, that AAV is a steal for what was their best player last season. 

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to DJ LeMahieu 2021 Outlook

We're about 1/5th the way through the season, and DJ has been a pretty big disappointment so far, particularly for anyone who drafted him in line with his 2nd/3rd round ADP.  The low-ish BABIP offers hope that the batting average will inch up toward his ~.300 career mark, but the early Statcast metrics are showing a troublesome decline in power over the past three seasons (with the caveat that 2020 and 2021 are smalller samples):

lemahieu.gif.222c79b96754c78b69836cc0c39c2d5e.gif

The team context is important to note here, with many Yankees struggling around him, cold temperatrures in the East during the month of April, and so forth. I think most people think brighter days are ahead, which explains why his thread has been dormant despite being a "mathematical bust" so far.  I'm inclined to agree that he'll rebound and get closer to his value ROS, but even in places where I'm trying to buy, I'm going to want more than a token discount over what people paid in drafts in case there's a real decline in power here that even Yankee Stadium can't save him from.

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In 2019, DJ put up a .731 April OPS and finished with .893. In 2017, he put up a .726 and finished with .783. He's a bit worse so far at .697, but Statcast also thinks he's under-performing his expected stats. I'd still wager his numbers are fine by the end of the year.

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

This guy's turned into total garbage.  Now reports come in the Yanks are looking to improve at 2B (frazier or Marte).  Gio I'm sure has 3b.  Does this mean Lemahieu gets reduced playing time.  Gone from Yankees MVP to backup infielder in a year?

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6 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

This guy's turned into total garbage.  Now reports come in the Yanks are looking to improve at 2B (frazier or Marte).  Gio I'm sure has 3b.  Does this mean Lemahieu gets reduced playing time.  Gone from Yankees MVP to backup infielder in a year?

Time to be done. Will he continue to play like a top 25 2b. 

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Yeah, no idea what's going on here... he's swinging less, making contact less, and both striking out and walking more than he has in years. Whatever is happening, I hope it can be turned around.

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The 2 guys I thought would be locks this year...DJ and Ozuna, have been underwhelming to say the least. I was so disappointed when they both went in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, before the turn at 3/4. Now I'm not

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He has been solid enough to be a top 100 player in my points league, certainly not what he is capable of--or what people bought in for-- but he will be just fine after he gets on a summer heater...I am not worried in the least, I would be looking to buy cheaply where you can. Everything in his statcast profile is there, just not barreling the ball well so far this year...though that has never been his strong suit either.

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I wonder if he isn't a good buy low candidate right now.  Those who drafted him are probably extremely frustrated and are likely willing to cut bait.  With BA being so abysmal across the league DJM could be a big add if he returns to form at some point.

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3 hours ago, dicka24 said:

I wonder if he isn't a good buy low candidate right now.  Those who drafted him are probably extremely frustrated and are likely willing to cut bait.  With BA being so abysmal across the league DJM could be a big add if he returns to form at some point.

He is but how good is he going to be.

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