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A comparison of Steamer projections for three second baseman. 

Player A: .277/.336/.482 26 HR, 87 R, 84 RBI, 13 SB

Player B: .287/.353/.474 21 HR, 90 R, 79 RBI, 7 SB

Player C .280/.347/.453 22 HR, 93 R, 82 RBI, 11 SB

Player A has an ADP of 31

Player B has an ADP of 78

Player C has an ADP of 113

If you haven't guessed these mystery men yet, A is Albies, B is Ketel Marte, C is Altuve. 

The trash can discount is real!

 

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^ the ADP delta is likely due to upside / age more than anything. If you think Albies can hit another level then he's worth that ADP. If you are bearish on him, then you can wait it out and grab Altuve. 

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On 1/22/2021 at 8:46 AM, 2ndCitySox said:

^ the ADP delta is likely due to upside / age more than anything. If you think Albies can hit another level then he's worth that ADP. If you are bearish on him, then you can wait it out and grab Altuve. 

Last year in a weird year health wise (weird year in general which very well can be the case again) Albies was on a 150 game pace of 30 HR and 15 SB, his postseason pace would be 25 HR and 25 SB, at just 24 years old and at a position that I currently don't view as deep personally I'm buying Albies.

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4 minutes ago, turner46 said:

Last year in a weird year health wise (weird year in general which very well can be the case again) Albies was on a 150 game pace of 30 HR and 15 SB, his postseason pace would be 25 HR and 25 SB, at just 24 years old and at a position that I currently don't view as deep personally I'm buying Albies.

Yes 2B is not deep at all IMO

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35 minutes ago, turner46 said:

Last year in a weird year health wise (weird year in general which very well can be the case again) Albies was on a 150 game pace of 30 HR and 15 SB, his postseason pace would be 25 HR and 25 SB, at just 24 years old and at a position that I currently don't view as deep personally I'm buying Albies.

Yeah but it's not one for one, is it?  Draft value is fluid and fundamentally comparative.  By this I mean it's not about "who would you rather have: Albies/Altuve."  On the contrary, it's about who would you rather have at their price and who are you leaving behind.

So would you rather have Albies/Bohm or Arenado/Altuve?  Albies/Swanson or Seager/Altuve?  Albies/Moore or Tucker/Altuve?  Albies/Goldy or DJL/Altuve?  

I don't think the OP was saying Altuve will outperform Albies, but given what you can get at Albies' price (Arenado/Seager/Tucker/DJL), Altuve seems comparatively more valuable.

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12 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Yeah but it's not one for one, is it?  Draft value is fluid and fundamentally comparative.  By this I mean it's not about "who would you rather have: Albies/Altuve."  On the contrary, it's about who would you rather have at their price and who are you leaving behind.

So would you rather have Albies/Bohm or Arenado/Altuve?  Albies/Swanson or Seager/Altuve?  Albies/Moore or Tucker/Altuve?  Albies/Goldy or DJL/Altuve?  

I don't think the OP was saying Altuve will outperform Albies, but given what you can get at Albies' price (Arenado/Seager/Tucker/DJL), Altuve seems comparatively more valuable.

 

I agree with you in theory but I personally will take Albies in round 3 then at 3B will be happy with ideally 2 of Donaldson, JD Davis, Turner, Mcmahon (if the league is deep and can use him at coors) etc... In the 2b and 1b 2 vs 2 I persoanlly have many targets at 1B as well late Hosmer, Bell, Mancini, Mountcastle, Sano the aforementioned Mcmahon etc...

In your SS and OF 2 vs 2 I prefer the Altuve sides but how I view SS and OF I am attacking them early with 5 category studs then hoping to get lucky with mashers at the corners late.

My question to you is what if multiple owners are thinking like you and plan A Altuve goes and the other guy mentioned above Ketel Marte is likely gone before Altive then do you have plan C or D etc...???

In closing I agree Altuve is the better value but with how I currently view the player pool and how I currently like to construct my roster he is not someone I am looking to plan my draft around. If I missed on Albies and in round 9 or 10 Altuve is there and I don't have a 2b then great but if I pass on Albies to get Altuve and he gets sniped in round 8 I currently don't have many if any late 2b targets that I like outside Madrigal and Hampson but those fit onto teams with a surplus of power where I generally aim to acquire power later. Hope this rambling makes sense.

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26 minutes ago, turner46 said:

My question to you is what if multiple owners are thinking like you and plan A Altuve goes and the other guy mentioned above Ketel Marte is likely gone before Altive then do you have plan C or D etc...???

In closing I agree Altuve is the better value but with how I currently view the player pool and how I currently like to construct my roster he is not someone I am looking to plan my draft around. If I missed on Albies and in round 9 or 10 Altuve is there and I don't have a 2b then great but if I pass on Albies to get Altuve and he gets sniped in round 8 I currently don't have many if any late 2b targets that I like outside Madrigal and Hampson but those fit onto teams with a surplus of power where I generally aim to acquire power later. Hope this rambling makes sense.

Your point is well taken.  In truth, 2B is not as deep in 2021 as other positions and the cutoff for strong 12-team viable 2B ends around Edman at #131.  So if you are concerned about the relative shallow-ness of the position you absolutely will want to secure a 2B earlier rather than later.  Personally, if I miss on some earlier 2B targets I like Solak/Madrigal later (hard pass on Hampson); La Stella is a great bat to combo with a Gimenez, say, or a Taylor.

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