Corey Kluber 2021 Outlook

[MonsterMan 40]

Kluber headed to NY Yankees

Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Yankees have reached an agreement with free agent right-hander Corey Kluber.

[En Votto Veritas 498]

Great signing by the Yankees.  Cole-Kluber-Severino is a very competitive 1-2-3 and this, plus the DJL re-signing, firmly vaults them back into playoff favorites with CWS.

[Flyman75 4,886]

We’ll have to see how well Severino returns from TJS midseason. But what seems to be the conventional thought on Kluber? He’s a risk in real life and in fantasy. 

[colorado2013 49]

If healthy, this should prove a great signing. That is a big if though, IMO.

[tucker26 2,324]

It's definitely a show me year for Kluber. It's foreseeable his velocity remains in decline and the park(s)/division won't help. If you can get him on a bargain bin deal it's not a bad gamble. He'll likely have some good games mixed in with some shellacking's and get you some W's. If the velocity returns a bit he'd probably slot in around a top 25, but not holding my breath. I'm expecting something like a 4+ era with a decent k/rate and whip and some W's. Or he gets hurt again and it's curtains. He's so cheap currently, (NFBC ADP 251 and 95 for P's) it's basically a late round gamble and we have seen old vets recently surge however they are outliers... ADP seems likely to improve now that he's signed and with the Yanks.

[charger_ss24 388]

I owned him in my keeper league for a few years. He’s a historically slow starter and improves as the season goes on. So if you target him, don’t panic after a couple weeks worth of starts. Good bench arm to have to monitor his progress if you have a bench spot to spare.

[En Votto Veritas 498]

11 hours ago, tucker26 said:

It's definitely a show me year for Kluber. It's foreseeable his velocity remains in decline and the park(s)/division won't help. If you can get him on a bargain bin deal it's not a bad gamble. He'll likely have some good games mixed in with some shellacking's and get you some W's. If the velocity returns a bit he'd probably slot in around a top 25, but not holding my breath. I'm expecting something like a 4+ era with a decent k/rate and whip and some W's. Or he gets hurt again and it's curtains. He's so cheap currently, (NFBC ADP 251 and 95 for P's) it's basically a late round gamble and we have seen old vets recently surge however they are outliers... ADP seems likely to improve now that he's signed and with the Yanks.

Overall I agree but I'm not sure the velocity is that much of an issue.  It's not like he needs to gain several MPH on his fastball.  In 2018 his FB was 92.4 MPH and he provided 5.5 WAR.  In 2017 his FB was 92.9 MPH and he provided 7.2 WAR.  Yes it was above 93 before that but it's not like he wasn't effective with a FB in the 92 range.  In the limited 2019/2020 seasons it definitely dropped another tick but it didn't fall below 92, and it was only a 36.2 inning sample size due to the injuries.

Historically he's either been Cy Young caliber or on the DL.  If Kluber is healthy and his fastball is there, I expect an ERA around 3.50, WHIP around 1.15, and a K/9 in the mid 9s.  It's just what he does when he's not on the DL and I need to see him prove me wrong before I count him out.  He's got enough command and prowess to deliver a huge season for his miserable ADP.  Honestly, would you rather have Nathan "my career ERA is 4.27" Eovaldi or Kluber? 

[sleepysock 812]

Never got bad, only got hurt. If healthy he will be a top 20 guy. Worth the gamble at the current ADP.