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Playoff 2021 Predictions pt 3 - Championship Sunday


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Well I was 0-4 ATS last week (painful) but here's my drivel for this week. Both road teams get the simple +3, using my regular site (Y! pigskin Pick'em):

TB+3: I did see the first matchup Week 6 and am very aware of the debacle that occurred to GB - but that doesn't influence my pick here. The difference now is I have a much better idea of how these teams play. TBs secondary at the end of the season is clearly their weakest unit, and they successfully masked that with their blitz-fest of Rogers earlier in the year. GB impressed me quite a bit last week against the Rams. Because of the earlier Bucs game, I thought the Rams could cause some serious problems for Rogers.

I see the Bucs as a poor-man's Rams DST - heavy pass rush, tough vs the run. The Packers have the best WR in the game inside 10 yards (and arguably at any parameter) with Adams. I expect to see a lot of hot-route patterns for Adams. Tonyan of course I think is a nice option fantasy-wise in this game. Short-intermediate route-runners I think will get the most burn in this game for GB. That breaks the tie for me between Lazard and MVS (Lazard). BTW the weather as of Thursday for GB on Sunday kickoff is mostly cloudy, high in the mid 20s with no snow and light winds.

TB would be wise in this game to bleed clock because GBs run D is their primary weakness. There's some uncertainty on the split between RBs Jones/Fournette here on Thursday - but the Bucs should find out quickly who's ready to rock and heavily use him (I don't know how they snub the NFLCG veteran Fournette as good as he's been BTW, so he is my priority as of today). GB's run D is poor, basically. If TB commits to the run I see this being a slug-fest type of game where GB is constantly trailing in TOP. Of the Tampa pass-catchers, Godwin to me is easily the top choice with Brown dinged up. Evans will very probably score his obligatory TD but he does have Alexander covering him so I wouldn't expect much from a yardage standpoint. Godwin will be deadly if the running game is working and while I DO see GB winning, it will be extremely close - within the number imo. Brate v Gronk - WTF knows.

KC-3: I also saw this game (coincidentally ALSO in week 6) - I believe it was a night game in BUF - a rainy, cool night. As a result (imo) CEH had what turned out to be his next-to-last decent game of the season (Week 11 at Vegas). CEH had 3 useful fantasy weeks: Week 1 v HOU and the other two matchups I mentioned. I mention all of this because CEH appears to be a go this weekend while Bell just popped up on the injury report - I'm not sure if Bell is even relevant at this point but worth a mention. 

The forecast for KC on Sunday at KC is rain and 44 degrees. Very similar to that night in BUF. 

Assuming CEH's health KC has what it takes to cover this spread even with Mahomes having what looks to be a pretty decent case of turf toe. KC didn't rely on Mahomes the last time these teams played. BUF's D is far tougher to pass against than run against. I also like Williams as a cheap DFS option in this game. Kelce is an obvious play as well imo. That likely goes without saying. He runs (mostly) short routes - it particularly fits in this matchup. Kelce had 2 TDs in Week 6. I haven't mentioned Hill - whom I fade here. BUF will use Tra White to shadow Hill, who meticulously accumulated 25 yards in Week 6 in that matchup.

None of this is to say BUF doesn't put up its share of points. Allen may even outscore Mahomes imo - they throw pretty much every play or simply have Allen run. Naturally Diggs therefore is a good option - but I also like Brown, who matched Diggs in targets at full health last week. Singletary is a very worthy back in PPR - he will disappoint in standard. BUF barely even tries to run the ball - which is also why I like KC in  crappy conditions.

 

 

Edited by SuperJoint
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The Packers/Bucs game honestly scares the hell out of me. I sent my buddy with a large amount cash to Vegas this weekend but I don't know if I can convince myself to even bet this one. I rewatched the week 6 matchup and I do think you can throw out the final score given Rodgers two picks (one for a TD) in the 1st half. What I can't throw out is the fact that the Bucs D matches up VERY WELL vs the Pack. The Packers had no answers for Lavonte David & Devin White, both in the run game and in pass protection. The Packers were trying to run a decent amount of outside zone early and both White/David shot the gaps so quickly that the Pack O-line had zero chance of even getting to them in the 2nd level. They also brought both LBs on blitz later in the 1st half and they couldn't block them.. or the Suh/JPP pressure that also got home. Throw in the fact that they get Vita Vea back this week (even though very limited) that should help a ton too just in taking up blockers. 

The first matchup was Adams first game back from a two game absence with a hammy, and you could tell with how he was moving, but they played him very well used bracket coverage him on multiple occasions. The Bucs offense was setup very nicely with field position via turnovers and punts throughout but I do not think they are going to have any problem getting to 28 points if needed. The Packers are rolling and this is Arod swan song MVP run... but I originally started the week wanting to go very HEAVY Pack and I am now scaring myself into not doing jack. 

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One fact to bear in mind if you’re still leaning Pack is the Bucs were literally the worst team in the league at defending deep passes - which of course is Rodgers’s forte.

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That and Billy Turner, their replacement LT, literally allowed only one pressure against that Donald-helmed D-line last week and finished as the top-graded (PFF) member of their O-line.

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No AB on Sunday FWIW...

Antonio Brown (knee) has been ruled out for the NFC Championship against the Packers.

Brown's knee injury kept him out of practice all week and will sideline him for the NFC title game. Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson will pick up Brown's targets, though neither projects for a high-volume role behind Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski. Brown should have a chance to return for the Super Bowl if the Bucs advance.

Jan 22, 2021, 12:25 PM ET
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53 minutes ago, BMcP said:

That and Billy Turner, their replacement LT, literally allowed only one pressure against that Donald-helmed D-line last week and finished as the top-graded (PFF) member of their O-line.

You’re secretly rooting for Tom ... as is @SharkSwimmer In the know 

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

One fact to bear in mind if you’re still leaning Pack is the Bucs were literally the worst team in the league at defending deep passes - which of course is Rodgers’s forte.

Fortunately for the Bucs, the Packers deep threat, MVS, is more likely to drop the ball than catch it. 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Fortunately for the Bucs, the Packers deep threat, MVS, is more likely to drop the ball than catch it. 

Have to take the good with the bad - fortunately the other options can also execute deep downfield.

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Any season that ends with Brady losing on National TV is a great season.

But I'll take an NFC Championship loss as the next best thing.

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On 1/22/2021 at 1:49 PM, BMcP said:

That and Billy Turner, their replacement LT, literally allowed only one pressure against that Donald-helmed D-line last week and finished as the top-graded (PFF) member of their O-line.

Now Winfield, Jr., may be down for this game - huge and likely underrated loss for the Bucs if so.

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3 hours ago, BMcP said:

Now Winfield, Jr., may be down for this game - huge and likely underrated loss for the Bucs if so.

I've read that he was an unexpected add, so perhaps he'll still be a go. I think the Bucs are better in the back than the considered evidence would suggest. Completions, comp. % & yards allowed thru there air, all rock bottom or thereabouts. Above, it was added that they give up a lot of chunk plays. But consider that the Bucs rank high in positive game script & TOP! Check where they rank in sacks, INTs & most importantly, points allowed. I like the Bucs, but if they $h!+ ice cubes & shiver to death, the deal is off.    

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7 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

That is called chalk my friend.  I didnt have the guts to take my initial bet, so taking gb and kc money line, and over on both games.  My $15 should pay about $145

Lost my $15, doubling down on the superbowl, picks tbd

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On 1/20/2021 at 11:41 AM, KennyWoo said:

If there's some place you can get KC -2.5 or at -3 with no juice or something I'd take that.  KC should be rated about 1 to 2 points higher than BUF so with home field that should be -4 or -5.  Of course if Mahomes doesn't play you are tearing up tickets but I think that's incredibly unlikely.  

I'd take the points on Tampa.  Brady has every possible chance to shred the Packers D and even if the Packers win (they probably will) there is so much chance for the "backdoor" cover in what should be a shootout that Tampa is the play getting 3 or 3.5 for me.  (Let's also not forget that Tampa beat Green Bay by like 100 points earlier this season too.  I know GB is playing a lot better now, but still...)

Two easy covers. I hope you tailed and spend the money in good health. 

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On 1/22/2021 at 8:08 PM, SharkSwimmer said:

Any season that ends with Brady losing on National TV is a great season.

But I'll take an NFC Championship loss as the next best thing.

Three road victories for the GOAT. Skins, Saints & Packers ... 

Mahomes & the Chiefs are next. Let’s go Tom. 

On 1/24/2021 at 10:36 PM, Boudewijn said:

@shakestreet has a magnificent 9/12 so far.

I am in a playoff bracket thingeee you start with wildcard weekend you pick all the way to the Super Bowl. I already won 240. Crazy lucky ... 

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