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Excellent. Now he can be completely useless at 2b, instead of Util.

There is such a thing as relying too much on advanced stats, particularly in small samples.  This Fangraphs post about the wide gulf between Matt Carpenter's scorching 2021 barrel / exit velocity numb

Not alphabetical order by last name...

It's really difficult for me to form a concise opinion on him between the injuries and pandemic shortened seasoned. Do I think he reaches what his ceiling was originally projected to be? No.  But, I like his swing, and he still is young enough to put together a career as what I think will ultimately be a solid OF3 in fantasy. 
 

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On 1/26/2021 at 2:12 PM, SpecialFNK said:

where does Senzel play? depth charts have him on the bench, with Reds OF of Castellanos, Akiyama, and Winker.

so much talent there with Senzel.

 

Depth charts in January not provided by the organization are just fluff. As long as Senzel is healthy and shows his talent ala the first half of 2019 he will be nearly a full time starter. His hit tool is elite and he was overall pick #2 for a reason, and at no point in his ascension in the minors did he do anything other than rake. A sluggish 2nd half of 2019 due to hitting coach monkeying with his swing and a Covid year is no reason to think his ship has sailed. 

Akiyama did ZERO to prove he belongs slotted into that spot. At worst it will be open competition and all things equal I am betting on Senzel. 

That all said, his injury history is starting to build up to something more than just coincidence. 

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On 1/31/2021 at 7:20 PM, kwolf68 said:

 

Depth charts in January not provided by the organization are just fluff. As long as Senzel is healthy and shows his talent ala the first half of 2019 he will be nearly a full time starter. His hit tool is elite and he was overall pick #2 for a reason, and at no point in his ascension in the minors did he do anything other than rake. A sluggish 2nd half of 2019 due to hitting coach monkeying with his swing and a Covid year is no reason to think his ship has sailed. 

Akiyama did ZERO to prove he belongs slotted into that spot. At worst it will be open competition and all things equal I am betting on Senzel. 

That all said, his injury history is starting to build up to something more than just coincidence. 

agreed - more concerned about the injuries than the playing time.....may be the last time to get him at a big discount as he could break out.  

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On 2/4/2021 at 10:51 AM, Big Tuna said:

agreed - more concerned about the injuries than the playing time.....may be the last time to get him at a big discount as he could break out.  

Absolutely. Those injuries seem to be "coincidental", but at a certain point it passes that and you just have to chalk up a guy as incapable of staying healthy due to playing style or just a physical propensity to be injured. Again, there was not much in his track record to suggest he was a guy that would be prone to breaking down. I invested in acquiring him for CF so I obviously still have faith in him, but also have 3 other CFs on my roster, showing the doubts do remain. 

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Love guys like this. The definition of a post hype sleeper.  He contributes in so many areas that he has a high chance of not being a total bust even if he has an awful year.

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His current ADP is in the 240-250 range, so we're talking around the 20th round.  I'll echo the post hype sleeper view on this guy.  I'll be looking to get some shares in my coming drafts.

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The Reds are taking a good long look at Senzel this spring and are plugging him into the lineup against both lefties and righties. He's hit in the 3 hole for the majority of his games, one leading off, and one batting 5th. He seems healthy and if he stays that way, it sounds like they want to get him in the lineup close to every day.

“I think it took him a game or two just to settle in, which is normal,” Reds manager David Bell said after the game. “I think he continues to have good at-bats, he's driving the ball. It's going to be fun to watch him really get into the flow of playing a lot. Really seeing the player that he is. Just the more he plays, the more he can get into that flow, the better for him.”

It also sounds like they're very happy with his defense in CF so I think that's where he stays for good, which sucks because that OF is crowded. But if he stays healthy and taps into some of his upside I think he's a lock for 20/20 .270. Tough to say where he hits in the lineup. Roster Resource has him hitting 5th, but they also have Winker leading off so I don't really buy that. I think best case scenario we're looking at him hitting at the top of the lineup vs LHP, in the lower 3rd vs RHP until he proves himself. Then I can see him as an everyday, top of the order, starting CF.

Through 16 PA this spring he's hitting .286 with 2 homers, 2 walks, and a double. I own him in one of my dynasties and am looking to acquire him in my other. I think he definitely fits the post-hype sleeper tag.

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Really glad to see Senzel having a very "under the radar" strong Spring. He was given the CF job over Akiyama and is proving that decision worthy, not that Akiyama has EVER done anything to earn it over him. 

If health cooperates you have a guy very capable of hitting .300 with 20+ homers and 20+ steals from CF. A pretty handy asset for fantasy managers. 

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With everyone panicking and chasing speed I think he can be quite valuable this year.  There are a handful of speed guys who, for one reason or another, are not really being pushed up, so you can cover your speed without overpaying. 

You hardly need 162 out of him at this price.  If he hits his 17/15 type projections over 130 games, plug in any rando for 20 games and you're good.

And, of course, there is a possibility he stays healthy and breaks out.

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5 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

With everyone panicking and chasing speed I think he can be quite valuable this year.  There are a handful of speed guys who, for one reason or another, are not really being pushed up, so you can cover your speed without overpaying. 

You hardly need 162 out of him at this price.  If he hits his 17/15 type projections over 130 games, plug in any rando for 20 games and you're good.

And, of course, there is a possibility he stays healthy and breaks out.

I really don't get the ADP.  He's seemingly being drafted at his absolute floor (which even that seems pretty good.)

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Senzel feels like an excellent late round pick in mixed leagues. 

I'm in an 12 team NL only 5 keeper ROTO league so I have my eyes on him heavily around 40-50 overall after keepers (60 players kept). So that's about right in terms of getting him in the 100-110 overall. I'm somewhat reaching for him seeing how he's listed in the 120-130 NL only range but I know my fellow owners and a guy like this has to be reached for and I'm prepared to do so. I will probably do one fresh 12 Team non keeper Roto league this year and Senzel will be on that team of mine. If he's going 220th overall in mixed leagues I'll draft him 40'ish spots before that. 

 

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On 2/8/2021 at 3:01 PM, Cesare13 said:

Love guys like this. The definition of a post hype sleeper.  He contributes in so many areas that he has a high chance of not being a total bust even if he has an awful year.

I guarantee you that if he has an "awful year" he will be a bust of a roster slot at any price.

That's what "awful" means.

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

I guarantee you that if he has an "awful year" he will be a bust of a roster slot at any price.

That's what "awful" means.

Well let's be honest, his first 492 PA in the bigs have been "awful". He's dealt with injuries since he's been called up, shoulder, vertigo, covid, but in that time he's paced 18/20. Also, his nfbc adp is around 250, so a bust in the 20th round isn't really that big of a deal.

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2 minutes ago, einstein2u said:

Any parameter u want. At the end of year. U pull up 25 outfielders.  He will on that list. 

Not alphabetical order by last name...

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The tools are there.  What he needs is health to get into a rhythm.  But him going 20/20 this year if he can see 145+ games is def. a possibility.  The groin injury makes me a littler nervous, and his value takes a hit if the Reds want him to steal less to protect more against injuries.

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4 hours ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

Great late round option along with Laureano & Carlson.  I knew I was getting one of the three.  Damn good year to wait on a 3rd outfielder.

Senzel, yea. Not quite so much Laureano & Carlson.  Senzel’s ADP is 236, compared to 157 for Carlson & 144 for Laureano.

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[...]  Players like Senzel are why I like to take fewer risks early and wait on OF until later in drafts.   He may amount to nothing but if he plays to his prospect hype, he could be a 2019 Austin Meadows level performer.  OF is where you can find upside like this with little to no draft risk.    I think we could see a 20/20 year from Senzel.

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