Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Recommended Posts

22 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

It's strange that a prospect that was supposed to have great contact skills, but his power would have to develop, has started his career struggling at the major league level. Granted his rookie season wasn't bad and he's dealt with injuries, but he's yet to become the player he should be.

Doesn't help that Naquin started the season off ridiculously hot, so he's going to continue to play, but he's also not anywhere near that good.  Regular playing time will likely open up again at some point since Naquin is just an average hitter, as long as Senzel wakes up at some point.

If you really need the roster spot, I can't fault somebody for cutting Senzel loose.  Still have to say he's been a disappointment so far in his career.  If he could get hot again for more than a few games, he could force himself back into his everyday role though.

Not even worth it in 12 man leagues anymore. Shogo coming back, Babe Naquin on the prowl, Senzel is a bench bat

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 151
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Excellent. Now he can be completely useless at 2b, instead of Util.

There is such a thing as relying too much on advanced stats, particularly in small samples.  This Fangraphs post about the wide gulf between Matt Carpenter's scorching 2021 barrel / exit velocity numb

Not alphabetical order by last name...

Benched for 3 of their last 4 games.  It’s simply not happening, and that’s a real shame because the Reds have themselves a legit offense & he’d have been in a position to get plenty of runs & RBI, along with the 20/20 capabilities.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yea, was a good idea as a late round dart, but this ain’t working.

 Dropped for boring vet Avisail Garcia, who I’m also not all that excited about, but realized he is pretty much what I hoped Senzel would be.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, colorado2013 said:

I dumped him with some confidence that if I keep my eye on him, I should be able to pick him back up.

For reference, if I saw him dropped in my 12 team roto  I'd put in a claim fwiw.   I prefer to try to stock potential in April and then fill in the pieces in August/September  with hot streaks and easy matches rather than vice versa.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I understand Senzel has had some injuries but honestly, the Reds (IMO) have butchered his development. They did the same thing to Winker IMO.

Too much toying with them with platoons and being benched. Let the kids play.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

For reference, if I saw him dropped in my 12 team roto  I'd put in a claim fwiw.   I prefer to try to stock potential in April and then fill in the pieces in August/September  with hot streaks and easy matches rather than vice versa.

 

That league is only a 10 team roto league, so the pool is richer. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/19/2021 at 11:03 AM, ThreadKiller said:

I understand Senzel has had some injuries but honestly, the Reds (IMO) have butchered his development. They did the same thing to Winker IMO.

Too much toying with them with platoons and being benched. Let the kids play.

Reds fan here as well as Senzel owner and totally agree,,,,,Winker and Senzel were blue chip prospects...they should have anchored them in 2 spots of the OF and let em play a full season to develop - this yo yo approach doesnt allow any of them to get into a groove and has really hurt their growth....

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, absknicks said:

Hit a couple of balls to the warning track today but with the new ball I'm afraid he might just have warning track power. 

Does the 'new ball' affect his speed? Cuz hes only 1 for 3 in SBs

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, posty said:

Time to cut bait and never look back?

Even in my 10 Team league the WW options are bleak (M. Taylor, J. Upton, R. Mountcastle) so I'm going to painfully hold for now. His sprint speed is still elite and its been cold. Hopefully he continues to get playing time and heats up.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, RoadApple said:

Even in my 10 Team league the WW options are bleak (M. Taylor, J. Upton, R. Mountcastle) so I'm going to painfully hold for now. His sprint speed is still elite and its been cold. Hopefully he continues to get playing time and heats up.

agreed - bench him for a few weeks...if hes not much better by the end of May then it would be time to move on

Link to post
Share on other sites

I owned him in both my leagues, then I realized why do I own him in both my leagues? Shouldn’t anyone else anywhere have wanted this guy if he’s so good?

so I dropped him in both and he’s still sitting on the ww in both. 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes he's next on my to drop list [...].  Maybe that will happen this weekend.  However, we are still dealing with relatively small sample size so can anyone provide insight on how he's looked at the plate?  Is he just getting unlucky?  In the past, the biggest concern with him was always injuries.  I always assumed he would be an above average fantasy player when he actually played.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

Senzel 0-4 in a game where the Reds go off for 9 runs.  Sad.

 

Tough to get into a rhythm and develop like a top prospect when your playing time is jerked around and inconsistent.

Edited by ThreadKiller
Link to post
Share on other sites

Ya’ll need to stop looking at the bottom line and dig a bit before you start cutting talented guys this early in the season.

Do yourselves a favor and go peak at his statcast page.  He’s not doing anything wrong, just getting unlucky and hitting a few too many flyballs.  Patience.

 

  • Thanks 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

Ya’ll need to stop looking at the bottom line and dig a bit before you start cutting talented guys this early in the season.

Do yourselves a favor and go peak at his statcast page.  He’s not doing anything wrong, just getting unlucky and hitting a few too many flyballs.  Patience.

 

I'll pass...  You can take any number and make things look good if necessary...  There is a thing of looking at too many newly created statistics to try to figure out things...

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, posty said:

I'll pass...  You can take any number and make things look good if necessary...  There is a thing of looking at too many newly created statistics to try to figure out things...

Baseball Savant says Senzel should be slashing .293/.376/.512 right now. If you don't want to believe in new-age mathematics, that's totally fine (we all have different play styles). It's just if there are two players struggling, and I need to pick one, I'll take the one who has stronger saber-metrics.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, posty said:

I'll pass...  You can take any number and make things look good if necessary...  There is a thing of looking at too many newly created statistics to try to figure out things...

That’s some deep analysis you’ve got there.  So you’re just gonna ignore the fact that the “newly created statistics” show that he is hitting the ball better than at least half the league.  Has a great k rate and walk rate while having elite speed.  
im not making any claims that this guy is gonna set the world on fire, I’m just saying there’s no reason he should be dropped this early in the season when he seems to simply be getting a little unlucky.  

also fwiw if he has one good day and goes 4 for 4 he’ll be hitting .270 with  .350 Obp.

For those of you who believe in all these “newly created statistics” go buy senzel for nothing and thank me later

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, posty said:

I'll pass...  You can take any number and make things look good if necessary...  There is a thing of looking at too many newly created statistics to try to figure out things...

I agree with your assessment with analytics. Some are more helpful than others.

However, it’s still early, a months worth of games hasn’t been played yet. People are way too impatient these days. I’m a Robles owner and I’m not panicking yet.

Link to post
Share on other sites

There is such a thing as relying too much on advanced stats, particularly in small samples.  This Fangraphs post about the wide gulf between Matt Carpenter's scorching 2021 barrel / exit velocity numbers and his results gets to the heart of the matter.  Not looking for a Carpenter derail here, just using the content of that post as a timely reminder to the advanced metrics-inclined people, a group I consider myself a member of, that these stats that show a certain picture on a Fangraphs page are sometimes made up of data that has a lot of noise, and plenty of cases where the individual results don't align with the trends across the larger population, rendering a statement like "Baseball Savant says Senzel should be slashing .293/.376/.512 right now" misleading.

What Baseball Savant is actually saying is that across MLB, batted balls like the ones Senzel has so far would project out to that triple slash.  However, they are making that determination based on just 39 batted ball events (only 7 of which were classified as barrels or solid contact) and doing so purely based on on launch angle and exit velocity.  That's better than nothing, but better than nothing doesn't mean definitive.  A deeper dive looking at the results of each PA in which he made solid contact looks like a guy with warning track power who his balls hard enough to register as solid, but which looks like a can of corn with your eyes.  Maybe when the weather warms up those balls fly over the fence, but there's a lot of chatter out there about the baseball not flying as well this year, and I don't think these statcast models have caught up to those changes.

If he were on a team with fewer options, I might give him time to figure it out based on his power/speed upside.  As things are now, with Naquin mashing and Akayama looming, I don't see a lot of cause for optimism that he'll get consistent enough time to be useful in standard mixers.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sure is easy to rile people up around here when that sure wasn't my intention...

I like numbers as much as the next fantasy player, but there is such a thing as looking at too many numbers...  Has anyone really watched his at-bats this season or are you all just looking at the numbers at what he "should" be doing?  So Baseball Savant says he should be hitting .293, whoop-dee-doo, that isn't going to help himself, the Reds or any squad he is starting on if he still is hitting around .200...  If this was the last year of his contract and he is looking to get paid and he ended up hitting .220, is an owner going to say, "You know, your stats says you should have hit .400 instead of actually hitting .220.  This is pretty similar to your career as well, low batting average but fake numbers are putting you up close to that magical .400 number.  Since you are having really bad luck every year, let me pay you $40 million a year because you should be hitting near Ty Cobb's career average instead of close to Bob Uecker."

Anyway, carry on...

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, mehtavg2000 said:

Yes he's next on my to drop list [...].  Maybe that will happen this weekend.  However, we are still dealing with relatively small sample size so can anyone provide insight on how he's looked at the plate?  Is he just getting unlucky?  In the past, the biggest concern with him was always injuries.  I always assumed he would be an above average fantasy player when he actually played.  

There are some positives in his profile.

His EV & Max EV are "ok", not awful.  Barrel rate is decent.  Hard hit % is too.

.208 batting average vs .293 xBA.
.250 SLG vs .512 xSLG.
.255 wOBA vs .377 xwOWBA.

I dropped, just because I knew I could ride a hot hand, and probably grab Senzel later.  I'm keeping an eye on him to see if the hits start falling, and I'll be quick to pick back up.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...