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Maybe 22 days of baseball is not enough sample size?

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Excellent. Now he can be completely useless at 2b, instead of Util.

There is such a thing as relying too much on advanced stats, particularly in small samples.  This Fangraphs post about the wide gulf between Matt Carpenter's scorching 2021 barrel / exit velocity numb

Not alphabetical order by last name...

1 hour ago, posty said:

Sure is easy to rile people up around here when that sure wasn't my intention...

I like numbers as much as the next fantasy player, but there is such a thing as looking at too many numbers...  Has anyone really watched his at-bats this season or are you all just looking at the numbers at what he "should" be doing?  So Baseball Savant says he should be hitting .293, whoop-dee-doo, that isn't going to help himself, the Reds or any squad he is starting on if he still is hitting around .200...  If this was the last year of his contract and he is looking to get paid and he ended up hitting .220, is an owner going to say, "You know, your stats says you should have hit .400 instead of actually hitting .220.  This is pretty similar to your career as well, low batting average but fake numbers are putting you up close to that magical .400 number.  Since you are having really bad luck every year, let me pay you $40 million a year because you should be hitting near Ty Cobb's career average instead of close to Bob Uecker."

Anyway, carry on...

[...]

Look, people are just trying to help by providing some "under the hood" numbers that indicated Senzel may not be hitting the ball as poorly as his surface stats may suggest.

Take those numbers or leave them.  That's your call.  There's certainly a conversation to be had about what is valid and what isn't in small sample sizes.

But, making strawman comparisons to Ty Cobb doesn't advance the conversation IMO. It really just comes off as condescending.

Edited by tonycpsu
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1 hour ago, posty said:

Sure is easy to rile people up around here when that sure wasn't my intention...

I like numbers as much as the next fantasy player, but there is such a thing as looking at too many numbers...  Has anyone really watched his at-bats this season or are you all just looking at the numbers at what he "should" be doing?  So Baseball Savant says he should be hitting .293, whoop-dee-doo, that isn't going to help himself, the Reds or any squad he is starting on if he still is hitting around .200...  If this was the last year of his contract and he is looking to get paid and he ended up hitting .220, is an owner going to say, "You know, your stats says you should have hit .400 instead of actually hitting .220.  This is pretty similar to your career as well, low batting average but fake numbers are putting you up close to that magical .400 number.  Since you are having really bad luck every year, let me pay you $40 million a year because you should be hitting near Ty Cobb's career average instead of close to Bob Uecker."

Anyway, carry on...

Well xba aside he currently has the best barrel, walk, hard hit, strikeout rates and exit velo of his career - which I'm sure you already know are good indicators for performance, despite the stat sheets not reflecting it yet.

And I don't have him so not trying to white knight or anything. Just in a league where he was dropped and keeping an eye on him.

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5 hours ago, stay_woke said:

Winker and Castellanos are both studs, Senzel will be splitting time with Naquin all season barring injuries. Lack of DH is bad for his playing time this year.

Seems a little pretty mature. Winker, while a good player, has never had more than 384 plate appearances in any one season. And really, outside of the crazy short 2020 season, has never put up huge numbers. Naquin has been bench level his entire MLB career. Two weeks of a hot streak shouldn't change that. Winker and Castellanos are both terrible fielders too. For a team that also has terrible infield defense, it could use an actual decent centerfielder. I suppose Naquin could be that guy too, except he's proven to be no good in 5 MLB seasons. Plus, in a pinch, Senzel can also play IF (he already has played once at 3B this year). There's really no reason Senzel shouldn't get fairly regular at bats. The only question is what does he do with them?

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His OPS is still only .670, but it appears that something is brewing.  And it looks like he’ll be in the lineup for as long as Jonathan India is sidelined.  2B eligibility is also in the works.

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On 5/1/2021 at 8:44 AM, Tommy Lee Jones said:

His OPS is still only .670, but it appears that something is brewing.  And it looks like he’ll be in the lineup for as long as Jonathan India is sidelined.  2B eligibility is also in the works.

looks like hell get that 2b eligibility today for those leagues that only need 5 games, plus batting lead off.

 

Nick Senzel is starting at second base and batting leadoff for the Reds on Friday in Cleveland.

It will be Senzel's fifth game at second base, which could give him eligibility there depending on what site you're playing on. With Joey Votto (thumb) on the shelf the Reds are shaking up their infield alignment. Mike Moustakas is manning first base, Eugenio Suarez has moved back to his natural third base and Kyle Farmer is at shortstop. With Senzel at second, Tyler Naquin is in center field, Shogo Akiyama is in left and Jesse Winker is in the designated hitter spot.

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All the signs are there for Senzel to turn things around. He's walking more and fanning less than usual. His Statcast xBA and xSLG are both significantly above his actual mark which can be a harbinger of future success.

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Senzel played 4 years in the minors and accumulated these stats:

1028 PA, 28 HR, 40 SB, 109 BB, 203 K, .312 BA, .388 OBP, .508 SLG, .895 OPS

That's more than a decent sample size that suggests the type of player he is, and he's only 25 right now in the majors. Most minor leaguers take until age 25/26 to finally break through and figure it out on the major league level too. There's very few Ronald Acuna's out there.

I was lucky enough to snag him off waivers 3 days ago when one of the other managers in my 16 team league gave up on him. Senzel is obviously more valuable in a 16 team league, so I'm going to hang on to him for at least a month and see what happens. But as a 2B/CF option he looks to me to be a worthwhile pickup especially considering his age and upside.

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46 minutes ago, BCMarch10 said:

Senzel played 4 years in the minors and accumulated these stats:

1028 PA, 28 HR, 40 SB, 109 BB, 203 K, .312 BA, .388 OBP, .508 SLG, .895 OPS

That's more than a decent sample size that suggests the type of player he is, and he's only 25 right now in the majors. Most minor leaguers take until age 25/26 to finally break through and figure it out on the major league level too. There's very few Ronald Acuna's out there.

I was lucky enough to snag him off waivers 3 days ago when one of the other managers in my 16 team league gave up on him. Senzel is obviously more valuable in a 16 team league, so I'm going to hang on to him for at least a month and see what happens. But as a 2B/CF option he looks to me to be a worthwhile pickup especially considering his age and upside.

What’s his power grade? 28 bombs seems a bit low for that many ABs.

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8 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

What’s his power grade? 28 bombs seems a bit low for that many ABs.

Yeah, I agree that the stats suggest he's not a huge HR guy. So, if you're in a HR oriented league he may not be for you. Luckily, my league uses 14 batters statistics which include SB, BB, K, BA, OBP, OPS and more. So, an "all-around guy" like Senzel is more valuable in leagues like mine.

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Posted (edited)

Well, I hope he keeps turning it around. He has great matchups this week so he's worth a flier. Looked good last night again Mitch "Gas Can" Keller.   Warning, in my past experience with Senzel, he is that guy who you look at on the wire, see he's had few nice days, good matchups coming up, so you add him. He then proceeds to get hurt or go 1/20 the next 5 days.  Buyer beware. 

Edited by CardiacDO
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Agreed that has been his history so far. However, he's only 25 so he may snap out of it and reach his potential someday. Who knows when? Keeper leagues and dynasty leagues are still probably gonna hold onto him and wait it out.

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Reality check. Senzel isn't rosterable in a 10 team league as a starting OF (5) or 2B. And once he gains 2B eligibility he "might" be rosterable as a MI. It's time to pump the hype train breaks on this guy until he shows some signs of life. 

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33 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Reality check. Senzel isn't rosterable in a 10 team league as a starting OF (5) or 2B. And once he gains 2B eligibility he "might" be rosterable as a MI. It's time to pump the hype train breaks on this guy until he shows some signs of life. 

Agreed I’m in a 10 team league and he’s my next drop.  Between injury history and general lack of power/productivity in his MLB career to date, just not worth rostering in short leagues.  I know the talent is there but just too many better options.

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1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Reality check. Senzel isn't rosterable in a 10 team league as a starting OF (5) or 2B. And once he gains 2B eligibility he "might" be rosterable as a MI. It's time to pump the hype train breaks on this guy until he shows some signs of life. 

top 100 player in my league over the last 2 weeks. seems very rosterable to me, especially with the coming 2B eligibility. 

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Isn't this the first time since his rookie year he's had consistent at-bats and a set role in the lineup? He has all the makings of a post-hype sleeper - pedigree, disappointing rookie year, consistent playing time, and obvious improvements in his approach and numbers (in the small sample size we've seen so far). He may not be rosterable in shallow leagues yet but I think most are rostering him due to his upside.

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51 minutes ago, Phreedom32 said:

Seems like odd timing to be anything but positive...had himself quite the game last night especially for his standard.

I mean the fact that you had to add “especially by his standard” kind of says it all.  Everyone and their brother was hitting Keller yesterday.

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18 minutes ago, mehtavg2000 said:

I mean the fact that you had to add “especially by his standard” kind of says it all.  Everyone and their brother was hitting Keller yesterday.

True but the reds have shown they can get hot and go on a scoring run 

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