Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Boston Red Sox 2021 Outlook


Recommended Posts

Here we go, year 2 of the Tank Sox and Chaim Doom's campaign to become the Tampa Bay Rays.  Never paying star players what they are worth, constantly churning them for low-wage prospects.  I expect we see them trade JD Martinez by the deadline if he hits well enough to garner any type of interest.  Same goes with Benintendi, if he even lasts until spring training without being traded.  

Rotation to start the year looks GRIM:

Eduardo Rodriguez
Nathan Eovaldi
Tanner Houck
Martin Perez
Nick Pivetta

YIKES.  That assumes ERod's return to health after his bout with myocarditis as an aftereffect of Covid.  Sox have already admitted they aren't trying to contend this year, so I don't anticipate any free agent siginings to bolster this atrocity of a rotation.  They are also on record as saying they won't rush Chris Sale back this year, which makes sense given that they aren't trying to win.

Batting order to start the season.  Looks solid but unspectacular.  Projections according to fangraphs roster resource.

CF Verdugo
SS Bogaerts
3B Devers
DH Martinez
C Vazquez
LF Benintendi
RF Renfroe
1B Dalbec
2B Chavis

Outlook here is better than the starting rotation... but that's not saying much.  This lineup has some solid hitters, but opposing pitchers aren't gonna lose any sleep over facing the Red Sox this year.  Especially after they trade Martinez, Beni and whoever else they can unload (possibly Bogaerts too).  

Bullpen is a bunch of no-names on budget contracts, not even really worth disussing.  Matt Barnes, the "closer" had a -0.1 WAR last year.  Pretty much just throwing poop against the wall to see what sticks.  

All we can really look for this year is the continued development of Verdugo into a potentially All-Star level hitter, and for Dalbec Chavis and some of their other prospects to show the potential to significantly help the big league club in the years to come.  Here's hoping!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got to disagree with some of the above.  Benitendi will be gone as soon as they find the best return they can get for him.  Verdugo will remain in RF for sure.  He has the arm for it so it is a perfect fit.  It JBJ isn't re-signed, they will go after another CF likely.  Renfro would go to LF I think unless there is another OF signing.  I doubt Chavis will be the everyday 2B though he could play some OF as well as a semi-utility guy.  (Jeter Downs isn't too far away).  Zach Godley, if healthy, should be in the starting rotation to start the season.  Not Pivetta.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Got to disagree with some of the above.  Benitendi will be gone as soon as they find the best return they can get for him.  Verdugo will remain in RF for sure.  He has the arm for it so it is a perfect fit.  It JBJ isn't re-signed, they will go after another CF likely.  Renfro would go to LF I think unless there is another OF signing.  I doubt Chavis will be the everyday 2B though he could play some OF as well as a semi-utility guy.  (Jeter Downs isn't too far away).  Zach Godley, if healthy, should be in the starting rotation to start the season.  Not Pivetta.

 

You're quite possibly right - I was just looking at what fangraphs had down for the current roster.  Godley had an 8.16 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in 28.2 innings last year.  He would more likely be in a spring training competition with Pivetta in my opinion, rather than being handed the job outright.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with TBBT - that lineup will most likely look much different come opening day. However, I really don't hate it the way it sits right now. That rotation really isn't as bad as it first appears. I do agree that Godley will most likely take a rotation spot away from someone (Pivetta is likely). Production out of the heart of the lineup is the make or break. Guys like JDM, Bogey, and Devers NEED to produce to be able to support the guys at the top and bottom. Not having a true leadoff/get on base guy hurts that, but I think production is still quite possible.

I'm very curious to see who the Sox would target in replacement for Benintendi. I've heard rumors of Ozuna.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ozuna is not happening.  Sam Kennedy of the Sox literally just said they are not going all in for this year.  I'd be psyched if they sign him, because it makes sense to root for your team to put out as competitive of a product as possible... but there are zero reports of any negotiations between the two parties at this time (correct me if I'm wrong - I know BBT will try to regardless, like saying he disagrees with my post and then immediately agreeing with me about Benintendi being traded LMAO).  There are simply articles stating that he'd be a good fit (duh) and fanboy blog posts saying they should go after him if they trade Beni.  Really not sure why anyone who has been paying attention would think the Sox are gonna go out and dramatically improve upon the current lineup via what remains in free agency. The reason they want to dump Beni is that he's due $6.6 mil this year.

Godley has not only sucked lately, but he ended last year with right elbow problems.  At 31, he's not somebody any competitve team would count on for serious rotation help.  He couldn't even make the Detroit Tigers team last year.  The rotation sucks regardless of whether it's him or Pivetta slotted into #5.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I sure hope so.  I think they need at least these 2 years to become that good.  Would love it if they became the Rays 2.0 by the start of 2022.

Hopefully by Rays 2.0 you mean combining the best of the Rays (developing & finding talent in trades) and Red Sox (having the $ to keep core players and not start all over again every 2-3 years)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I sure hope so.  I think they need at least these 2 years to become that good.  Would love it if they became the Rays 2.0 by the start of 2022.

Red Sox have 4 World Series Championships this century.  Rays have nada.   Are you secretly a Yankees fan?  Lol.  

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, OaksterDan said:

Red Sox have 4 World Series Championships this century.  Rays have nada.   Are you secretly a Yankees fan?  Lol.  

 

Why do so many people use history when discussing future projections for a sports team?

Nothing against you but I get so tired of people going back and forth comparing organizations while using HISTORY to try and back up their opinion of a team moving forward with projections. Honestly, who cares that the Sox won the WS in 2004? What does that have to do with their prospects in 2021 and beyond?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

Why do so many people use history when discussing future projections for a sports team?

Nothing against you but I get so tired of people going back and forth comparing organizations while using HISTORY to try and back up their opinion of a team moving forward with projections. Honestly, who cares that the Sox won the WS in 2004? What does that have to do with their prospects in 2021 and beyond?

My point is, the Red Sox system of spending money on talent has won them multiple titles.  The Rays' system has got them two WS appearances in the same time, both losses.  The Red Sox are more likely to win another WS in the future, by continuing to operate the way they did the first 19 years of this century.  Why would you not use history to look at what has predominantly worked for most championship teams?  Moving forward, the Red Sox would unobjectively be better if they operated the way they did in the past.  You don't get better by jettisoning talent.  You just maximize profits.  

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, OaksterDan said:

My point is, the Red Sox system of spending money on talent has won them multiple titles.  The Rays' system has got them two WS appearances in the same time, both losses.  The Red Sox are more likely to win another WS in the future, by continuing to operate the way they did the first 19 years of this century.  Why would you not use history to look at what has predominantly worked for most championship teams?  Moving forward, the Red Sox would unobjectively be better if they operated the way they did in the past.  You don't get better by jettisoning talent.  You just maximize profits.  

 

The Red Sox front office was operated quite differently IMO during their first few titles with Theo than they were with Dombrowski along with today...I tend to stay away from making definitive statements that aren't really based on anything. To me, the Red Sox winning the World Series in 2004 has nothing to do with projecting the makeup of the Boston Red Sox in 2021. Different organizations, different front offices, different philosophies. Sure they spent money, but they did it much differently in my mind.

 

Agree to disagree.

Edited by ThreadKiller
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another thing to keep in mind when comparing all these versions of the Red Sox ('04, '07, '13, '18) with the future is that during the early titles, while they spent money, they also developed players within their minor league system. The Dombrowski led front office really didn't develop anyone within the minor leagues but still won 2x, so again it makes no sense to compare front offices that don't exist anymore with the ones that do moving forward.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

Another thing to keep in mind when comparing all these versions of the Red Sox ('04, '07, '13, '18) with the future is that during the early titles, while they spent money, they also developed players within their minor league system. The Dombrowski led front office really didn't develop anyone within the minor leagues but still won 2x, so again it makes no sense to compare front offices that don't exist anymore with the ones that do moving forward.

I agree with you that history isn't the end all be all and shouldn't be used to draw concrete conclusions, but by looking at it you can see trends and draw comparisons.  The Red Sox teams that won the titles were managed and built very differently, however the Rays have operated in the same fashion for their entire existence.  What has it gotten them?  2 World Series appearances and a finicky fanbase.  I personally like the way they manage their young players and admire the trades they make.  They are a smart baseball team.  However, the Red Sox have had more success managing their team in a different manner which I believe was the point of OaksterDan's post.  The Red Sox have owners and fans that want to spend money and over the last 20 years have spent wisely.  The Rays ownership doesn't spend money and the Florida Fanbase could seem to care less ( I live in South Florida).  History is a good Broad indicator of how people and situations will play out in the future (unless a major change takes place, such as new ownership of the team).  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, damana said:

I agree with you that history isn't the end all be all and shouldn't be used to draw concrete conclusions, but by looking at it you can see trends and draw comparisons.  The Red Sox teams that won the titles were managed and built very differently, however the Rays have operated in the same fashion for their entire existence.  What has it gotten them?  2 World Series appearances and a finicky fanbase.  I personally like the way they manage their young players and admire the trades they make.  They are a smart baseball team.  However, the Red Sox have had more success managing their team in a different manner which I believe was the point of OaksterDan's post.  The Red Sox have owners and fans that want to spend money and over the last 20 years have spent wisely.  The Rays ownership doesn't spend money and the Florida Fanbase could seem to care less ( I live in South Florida).  History is a good Broad indicator of how people and situations will play out in the future (unless a major change takes place, such as new ownership of the team).  

Wisely?  The Panda?  Rusney Castillo?  There have been plenty of busts that screwed over their ability to have enough money under the luxury cap to continue at elite levels while drafting good prospects in early rounds too. 

The two earlier World Series teams were built on role playing players with a few big moves like a Beckett thrown in.  But so many of the other players were components that fit into a team concept.  Dombrowski's approach was scorched earth, all in for the short term without a sustainable farm to keep up high levels for the future.  The future is now and the price is being paid.

Marrying the Tampa Bay approach to the Red Sox 2004 and 2007 approach could produce for the long term.  And since baseball is an entertainment business I'd rather have a nice long run of entertaining teams in Boston then a one and gone approach.  Maybe fans of other teams that haven't had 4 rings in the last 20 years think all in for one is great.  I sure did in 2004.  But now I want a high quality product that is sustainable long term.  I had the "super" one experience as a WS newbie fan in 2004 and now I want a more mature approach that reflects another tier of enjoyment.  I always thought it would take both 2020 and 2021 to be a basic wasteland before things got competitive again.  I still do.  2022 will return competition to at least make the playoffs again and be like 2003 was hopefully.  2023 is my target to be able to go deep or all the way again.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, The Big Bat Theory said:

Wisely?  The Panda?  Rusney Castillo?  There have been plenty of busts that screwed over their ability to have enough money under the luxury cap to continue at elite levels while drafting good prospects in early rounds too. 

The two earlier World Series teams were built on role playing players with a few big moves like a Beckett thrown in.  But so many of the other players were components that fit into a team concept.  Dombrowski's approach was scorched earth, all in for the short term without a sustainable farm to keep up high levels for the future.  The future is now and the price is being paid.

Marrying the Tampa Bay approach to the Red Sox 2004 and 2007 approach could produce for the long term.  And since baseball is an entertainment business I'd rather have a nice long run of entertaining teams in Boston then a one and gone approach.  Maybe fans of other teams that haven't had 4 rings in the last 20 years think all in for one is great.  I sure did in 2004.  But now I want a high quality product that is sustainable long term.  I had the "super" one experience as a WS newbie fan in 2004 and now I want a more mature approach that reflects another tier of enjoyment.  I always thought it would take both 2020 and 2021 to be a basic wasteland before things got competitive again.  I still do.  2022 will return competition to at least make the playoffs again and be like 2003 was hopefully.  2023 is my target to be able to go deep or all the way again.

I think playing full dynasty baseball over the last 10 years plus has given me a deep appreciation of how hard a rebuild can be at my very shallow level.  It is hundreds of times more difficult in real baseball.  But having played fantasy ball this way has given me the patience to wait things out in real baseball.  For that I am grateful.  Maybe some people who only play in redraft leagues without prospects etc don't share as much patience.  I don't know if that viewpoint effects them differently or not let alone fans that don't play fantasy baseball at all.  I just know full dynasty ball has really made me appreciate and even love watching rebuilds.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Wisely?  The Panda?  Rusney Castillo?  There have been plenty of busts that screwed over their ability to have enough money under the luxury cap to continue at elite levels while drafting good prospects in early rounds too. 

The two earlier World Series teams were built on role playing players with a few big moves like a Beckett thrown in.  But so many of the other players were components that fit into a team concept.  Dombrowski's approach was scorched earth, all in for the short term without a sustainable farm to keep up high levels for the future.  The future is now and the price is being paid.

Marrying the Tampa Bay approach to the Red Sox 2004 and 2007 approach could produce for the long term.  And since baseball is an entertainment business I'd rather have a nice long run of entertaining teams in Boston then a one and gone approach.  Maybe fans of other teams that haven't had 4 rings in the last 20 years think all in for one is great.  I sure did in 2004.  But now I want a high quality product that is sustainable long term.  I had the "super" one experience as a WS newbie fan in 2004 and now I want a more mature approach that reflects another tier of enjoyment.  I always thought it would take both 2020 and 2021 to be a basic wasteland before things got competitive again.  I still do.  2022 will return competition to at least make the playoffs again and be like 2003 was hopefully.  2023 is my target to be able to go deep or all the way again.

Four rings in 14 years is a high quality product sustained over the long term.  As far as Panda and Rusney you can't hit on every free agent you sign.  Panda was good in San Fran and a stud in the postseason.  He got paid for producing previously and it didn't work out for the Sox.  Castillo was a big mistake.  Look at all the free agents they did hit on: Manny, Ortiz, Damon, JD Martinez, JD Drew, Beltre.  Most of those guys played integral parts of their World series teams.  I agree with you that you need a combination of smart spending and building from within. 

Every team wants to be good every year. The Red Sox have the most series wins since the turn of the century with only one other team in San Fran coming close. If you look at the Red Sox record over the last twenty years they have had four losing seasons in a very tough division.  If you ask me, that's sustained success.  The Rays on the other hand have had 11 losing seasons in the last 20 years and have had 14 Since they entered the league in 1998.  And when they lost, they lost big, with 10 90-100 loss seasons.   

I don't know if Bloom is the answer in Bean town but he previously worked for the Rays so you have a good chance of getting some Rays philosophy thrown into the pot.  I think ownership will also be willing to spend when the time is right to build a winner.  Dombrowski's approach has it's flaws but he's done and gone and he did build you a winner.  We will see if he can pull it off again in Philly.  

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

IMO This Champ Bloom experiment will be a mega failure. He will be run out of town. Sox owner better hope fans are not allow in the stands this year. Pitiful.

I love reading the NESN Red Sox Facebook comment section when they signed Kiki Hernandez 

(most important and team-changing signing since we acquired the great Nick Punto in 2012!!! Can this off season possibly get any more exciting??! I think not!  😱😂) (Yippee. Nice small market move for a small market GM.) 

 

and maybe signing Garrett Richards 

(Shopping in the clearance bin) (Keep scraping the barrel Bloom..) 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/22/2021 at 10:54 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

Wisely?  The Panda?  Rusney Castillo?  There have been plenty of busts that screwed over their ability to have enough money under the luxury cap to continue at elite levels while drafting good prospects in early rounds too. 

The two earlier World Series teams were built on role playing players with a few big moves like a Beckett thrown in.  But so many of the other players were components that fit into a team concept.  Dombrowski's approach was scorched earth, all in for the short term without a sustainable farm to keep up high levels for the future.  The future is now and the price is being paid.

Marrying the Tampa Bay approach to the Red Sox 2004 and 2007 approach could produce for the long term.  And since baseball is an entertainment business I'd rather have a nice long run of entertaining teams in Boston then a one and gone approach.  Maybe fans of other teams that haven't had 4 rings in the last 20 years think all in for one is great.  I sure did in 2004.  But now I want a high quality product that is sustainable long term.  I had the "super" one experience as a WS newbie fan in 2004 and now I want a more mature approach that reflects another tier of enjoyment.  I always thought it would take both 2020 and 2021 to be a basic wasteland before things got competitive again.  I still do.  2022 will return competition to at least make the playoffs again and be like 2003 was hopefully.  2023 is my target to be able to go deep or all the way again.

 

But did Dombrowski really give away all that much? 

Notable players traded away include Moncada, Kopech, Dubon, Margot, Shaw, Beeks, Espinoza. And Moncada & Kopech were in the Sale trade. 

He was definitely scorched earth and I think in most cases if a GM goes that route it ends up backfiring but in his case I don't think the farm would be any better if those trades weren't made.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A rotation of 

Sale, Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Richards & Perez 

come midseason really is competitive imo.  The only problem, like the Yankees rotation, is that they may miss more games than they are available for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/23/2021 at 9:45 AM, shakestreet said:

IMO This Champ Bloom experiment will be a mega failure. He will be run out of town. Sox owner better hope fans are not allow in the stands this year. Pitiful.

I love reading the NESN Red Sox Facebook comment section when they signed Kiki Hernandez 

(most important and team-changing signing since we acquired the great Nick Punto in 2012!!! Can this off season possibly get any more exciting??! I think not!  😱😂) (Yippee. Nice small market move for a small market GM.) 

 

and maybe signing Garrett Richards 

(Shopping in the clearance bin) (Keep scraping the barrel Bloom..) 

So you want them to go out and make a ton of signings in a weak UFA market, go over the luxury tax when they just got under, and make ill advised short term moves all so they can maybe compete for the playoffs?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, apap414 said:

A rotation of 

Sale, Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Richards & Perez 

come midseason really is competitive imo.  The only problem, like the Yankees rotation, is that they may miss more games than they are available for.

You forgot Tanner Houck who may well be their best pitcher pre Sale's return.

3 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

Why would anyone besides John Henry care about going over the luxury tax? Lmao.

Will you please read up on the Luxury Tax and it's implications and penalties that kick in to the farm system and international signings after a few years being over it will do. 

There is a reason why EVERY rich team in baseball, not just the Sox, "re-sets" the tax after a few years of penalty build-ups and it is NOT about money.  And John Henry isn't exactly Scrooge in what he has paid for players over the years.  On the contrary he is probably the ultimate anti-Scrooge.  But there is more than mere money involved.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dislike the communication and general attitude of current ownership but I love the results they brought to Boston the past 15-20 years.     Sox will not be competitive this year (again) due to pitching as well as being in a tough division.  Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays all look clearly better.       Obviously resigned to that at this point.    Curious to see how Bloom will restock the farm system and spend the big dollars the Sox can afford to spend in the coming years as some bad/big contracts come off the books (JDM, Pedroia, Price, Eovaldi).  But 2021 is gonna be a rough one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/27/2021 at 12:37 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

You forgot Tanner Houck who may well be their best pitcher pre Sale's return.

Will you please read up on the Luxury Tax and it's implications and penalties that kick in to the farm system and international signings after a few years being over it will do. 

There is a reason why EVERY rich team in baseball, not just the Sox, "re-sets" the tax after a few years of penalty build-ups and it is NOT about money.  And John Henry isn't exactly Scrooge in what he has paid for players over the years.  On the contrary he is probably the ultimate anti-Scrooge.  But there is more than mere money involved.

I'd like Houck to start out in the minors just to get consistent starts but if he is pitching well again to start I hope they bring him right up.  Regardless with that rotation so injury prone, they'll need him.  I'm not opposed to him starting the season at SP5 at all, though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...