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Boston Red Sox 2021 Outlook


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30 minutes ago, RotoMaster said:

Positive news....they finally convinced Pedroia to retire.   (Hopefully) frees up $12.125 Million this year.    I hope they spend it wisely and don't just toss it in Mr. Henry's bank account.  

He's still getting paid.

Dustin Pedroia has announced his retirement after a 14-year career.

Pedroia will be paid in full ($12.125 million) for the final season of his contract. 

 

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On 2/11/2021 at 11:54 AM, ThreadKiller said:

 

Hopefully Duran is ready sooner than later.

bosoxforlife: The talk of Red Sox alternate site was Jarren Duran. Do you see him differently than before last summer?

 

 
1:37
Eric A Longenhagen: A little bit. I’d have been more likely to think his swing change will have real impact had he hit for any sort of power in Puerto Rico. Think he’s a big league role player sort but not and true everyday guy
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8 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:
bosoxforlife: The talk of Red Sox alternate site was Jarren Duran. Do you see him differently than before last summer?

 

 
1:37
Eric A Longenhagen: A little bit. I’d have been more likely to think his swing change will have real impact had he hit for any sort of power in Puerto Rico. Think he’s a big league role player sort but not and true everyday guy

 

That's disappointing to read.

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29 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:
bosoxforlife: The talk of Red Sox alternate site was Jarren Duran. Do you see him differently than before last summer?
 
1:37
Eric A Longenhagen: A little bit. I’d have been more likely to think his swing change will have real impact had he hit for any sort of power in Puerto Rico. Think he’s a big league role player sort but not and true everyday guy

And I should take/believe his opinion why?  If JBJ isn't re-signed (or someone else) then I think Duran becomes the everyday CF for this season.  Maybe Gilberto Jimenez will challenge in another year but not for now.  Verdugo is needed in the more difficult RF where he has a gun for an arm.

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21 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

And I should take/believe his opinion why?  If JBJ isn't re-signed (or someone else) then I think Duran becomes the everyday CF for this season.  Maybe Gilberto Jimenez will challenge in another year but not for now.  Verdugo is needed in the more difficult RF where he has a gun for an arm.

"Despite his speed, Duran’s instincts in center field are still not good (though they’ve improved), and he relies on his speed to make up for what he lacks in off-the-bat feel and anticipation. It’s possible the swing change has unlocked the power necessary to make Duran a regular, but it’s also possible that it has de-stabilized his feel for contact. We won’t know until he’s generated a bigger statistical sample with the new cut. I have him in as a fourth or platoon outfielder, a 1.5-ish WAR type of player."

Prospecting is tough, nobody is always right. That being said Longenhagen is considered one of the very best. Who are you reading and believing to think he will be a star? Why should you believe them?

Playing every day doesn't make you an everyday CF in the sense being discussed, you still have to be average compared to the league, so the moves you mentioned serve no actual purpose.  That's the point that's being made, not that he in theory wont have spurts where he wont play every day because of roster construction.

Keith Law and Baseball America are more optimistic by saying power in instructs is interesting, but it's come with more strikeouts and they have to see how it translates to games.  It's certainly a "we'll see' situation, prospect growth isn't linear so there's a chance he's stepped it up. 

His best tool is speed, which from my personal experience, is a player I tend to avoid. I'll take my Ls on missing a guy for speed.

This is also not me hating on the Red Sox, I've been a long time supporter of Casas as a prospect and still am.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Prospecting is tough, nobody is always right. That being said Longenhagen is considered one of the very best. Who are you reading and believing to think he will be a star?

I never said he would be a star.  I said he should be the everyday CF this season barring any late FA signings.  And who am I reading?  Myself of course.  😎

I don't see anyone on the roster that can play the very difficult at Fenway RF both defensively and has the strong arm needed for same other then Verdugo who does have quite a gun.  I don't see anyone else on the current roster that can play CF decently.  Ergo it is Duran's job to lose barring, as I said, a late FA signing.

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26 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I never said he would be a star.  I said he should be the everyday CF this season barring any late FA signings.  And who am I reading?  Myself of course.  😎

I don't see anyone on the roster that can play the very difficult at Fenway RF both defensively and has the strong arm needed for same other then Verdugo who does have quite a gun.  I don't see anyone else on the current roster that can play CF decently.  Ergo it is Duran's job to lose barring, as I said, a late FA signing.

The evaluation is roster independent. Eric is saying he projects him to be a 4th OF (for now) based on skill set and as a starter he would be below league average for the position.  Really someone to track in the minors if you're interested, his contact rate and power will be telling about any sort of meaningful change he might have had.  if he's hitting for power and not sacrificing contact rate, he's more likely to be a regular.

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On 2/18/2021 at 11:14 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

And I should take/believe his opinion why?  If JBJ isn't re-signed (or someone else) then I think Duran becomes the everyday CF for this season.  Maybe Gilberto Jimenez will challenge in another year but not for now.  Verdugo is needed in the more difficult RF where he has a gun for an arm.

Gilberto looks like he is gonna be so solid. 

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4 hours ago, cdd10 said:

Gilberto looks like he is gonna be so solid. 

Gilberto is a year away at least.  Duran has learned to hit with some power and has speed and knows how to steal.  Gilberto has more speed but still doesn't know how to steal bases.  Ideally both go be in the same outfield with Verdugo in a year or so.

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Just now, TheForearmShiver said:

And now they’ve signed Danny Santana. 

Cream rises to the top.  If Jaren Duran can't beat out the likes of Danny Santana, Franchy Cordero, and Hunter Renfroe for a spot in the OF, then he's not good.  Duran turns 25 this year. he's like 2 younger than Franchy.   Looks pretty good so far  this spring for sure.  I think it would be kinda dumb to hold Duran down in the minors more than a month if he's good.  

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Cream rises to the top.  If Jaren Duran can't beat out the likes of Danny Santana, Franchy Cordero, and Hunter Renfroe for a spot in the OF, then he's not good.  Duran turns 25 this year. he's like 2 younger than Franchy.   Looks pretty good so far  this spring for sure.  I think it would be kinda dumb to hold Duran down in the minors more than a month if he's good.  

I think RW posted this minutes after i wrote this post

 

  • Jarren Duran homered and doubled against the Orioles in a losing cause Thursday.

    Duran is 5-for-10 with two homers and two doubles in the early going. There's still little chance of him going north with the Red Sox, but a Franchy Cordero-Alex Verdugo-Hunter Renfroe outfield doesn't look like it's going to be all that hard to break into.

    Mar 4, 2021, 3:31 PM ET
     
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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I think RW posted this minutes after i wrote this post

 

  • Jarren Duran homered and doubled against the Orioles in a losing cause Thursday.

    Duran is 5-for-10 with two homers and two doubles in the early going. There's still little chance of him going north with the Red Sox, but a Franchy Cordero-Alex Verdugo-Hunter Renfroe outfield doesn't look like it's going to be all that hard to break into.

    Mar 4, 2021, 3:31 PM ET
     
  •  

Is Duran a must-own for dynasty? Can he be 2018 Benintendi in the not too distant future?  Our dynasty league is a points league and both he and Franchy are FA’s. Trying to figure out if Duran has value in a points league. The recent power surge helps. 

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26 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Dalbec doing his best Kila Monster impersonation in ST. Still, he's making himself interesting. 

Feels like Joey Gallo-lite. Cheap source of home runs late, but will probably be a batting average drain.  He seems like the kind of guy that will hit 4 or 5 homers one week, then go 4 for his next 40 with 20 strikeouts the next.

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3 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Is Duran a must-own for dynasty? Can he be 2018 Benintendi in the not too distant future?  Our dynasty league is a points league and both he and Franchy are FA’s. Trying to figure out if Duran has value in a points league. The recent power surge helps. 

He was taken in the first round in one of my dynasty leagues and early in the second in another few days back.  Already owned from last year in the third.  I hav eno idea of your settings and "points" distribution but his ceiling may be something like 20/20.  Maybe a little more regards the steals part.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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