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Kris Bryant 2021 Outlook


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Current ADP is 118 ish. 

OF drafted right around him are: 

Yaz

Arozarena

BRYANT

Soler 

Buxton

3B drafted right him are:

Muncy 

Myers

BRYANT

Bohm 

D. Moore

Source: https://smadaplaysfantasy.com/2EarlyMocks/

Honestly that doesn't seem like a bad price. If you feel strongly that he will be dealt before the season (or early in the season) he's worth it. He's also in a contract year, Cubs or not. 

 

 

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He is one season from having been really good.

After burning me so badly last year, I don't plan on drafting him this year but I don't think the book is closed on him. Better health and contract year, might motivate him.

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2 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

3B drafted right him are:

Muncy 

Myers

BRYANT

Bohm 

D. Moore

 

Weird how Myers qualifies at 3b according to that list?  He had zero games there last year.  As far as Bryant, when you say the game isn't fun anymore that's really a problem.  If he's on the Cubs come Spring training I'm staying away.  Truthfully, I'd rather have Muncy or Bohm at that ADP even with Bryant on another team. 

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I'm buying all day.  If you look at his career, Bryant has never really been bad.  Including 2020, where he suffered from a low BABIP while other indicators remained the same, he averages .280/.380 - 31 - 91 - 111 - 7 in a full 162 game season.  Those are fantastic numbers deserving of a draft price almost half what it currently is, and there's simply nothing else like that at his current price.  He should handsomely outperform his current ADP and, IMO, should be one of the biggest values in this area.

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1 hour ago, En Votto Veritas said:

I'm buying all day.  If you look at his career, Bryant has never really been bad.  Including 2020, where he suffered from a low BABIP while other indicators remained the same, he averages .280/.380 - 31 - 91 - 111 - 7 in a full 162 game season.  Those are fantastic numbers deserving of a draft price almost half what it currently is, and there's simply nothing else like that at his current price.  He should handsomely outperform his current ADP and, IMO, should be one of the biggest values in this area.

You are right about his BABIP, but his K% spiked while his BB% dropped.  He has never been a statcast darling but the last two years have been pretty bad with '20 registering all blue.   I said previously that I'd take Bohm and Muncy over him but looking at NFBC and Fantrax data they are both going about thirty picks before him.  At ADP 136 he might be worth the risk.  He is the 16th 3B off the board and as far as ADP around other gambles, such as Villar and Yaz.  Problem is the guy made it clear he's unhappy in Chicago. I think at that price, if the guy gets traded I'm in.  If he's still a Cub come opening day, I think you can find better CI options later in the draft. 

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12 hours ago, damana said:

You are right about his BABIP, but his K% spiked while his BB% dropped.  He has never been a statcast darling but the last two years have been pretty bad with '20 registering all blue.   I said previously that I'd take Bohm and Muncy over him but looking at NFBC and Fantrax data they are both going about thirty picks before him.  At ADP 136 he might be worth the risk. 

The K%/BB% is true, but the sample size is a mere 34 games.  That's barely a fourth of a regular season and he has been extremely consistent in both throughout his career.  Consider that, 2020 SSS aside, he's never had a BB% below 10.5% and after his rookie year he posted K%s of 22, 19.2, 23.4, and 22.9.  Those numbers over four seasons are clockwork.

I fear that Bryant has just become a guy that fantasy managers don't like, and I don't think there's good reason for it.  I recall people saying he was injury prone in the past which has proved mostly false and now people are saying he's to be avoided or that there's risk with his pick.  This is especially interesting given that Muncy will hurt your average and won't play a full season, while Bohm has played all of 44 games at the major league level; so there's huge quantifiable risk associated with those picks but very little with Bryant. 

I'm no Cubs or Bryant homer, but value is value.  And frankly, until Bryant actually puts together a bad season we all should be buying at his discounted price.

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1 hour ago, En Votto Veritas said:

The K%/BB% is true, but the sample size is a mere 34 games.  That's barely a fourth of a regular season and he has been extremely consistent in both throughout his career.  Consider that, 2020 SSS aside, he's never had a BB% below 10.5% and after his rookie year he posted K%s of 22, 19.2, 23.4, and 22.9.  Those numbers over four seasons are clockwork.

I fear that Bryant has just become a guy that fantasy managers don't like, and I don't think there's good reason for it.  I recall people saying he was injury prone in the past which has proved mostly false and now people are saying he's to be avoided or that there's risk with his pick.  This is especially interesting given that Muncy will hurt your average and won't play a full season, while Bohm has played all of 44 games at the major league level; so there's huge quantifiable risk associated with those picks but very little with Bryant. 

I'm no Cubs or Bryant homer, but value is value.  And frankly, until Bryant actually puts together a bad season we all should be buying at his discounted price.

All valid points, however there are still a lot of red flags.  His statcast data is still subpar.  He's just not hitting the ball as hard as he used to and really struggles against breaking balls.  I understand SSS in '20 but he had the same problem in '19.  He was still Barreling the ball at an above average rate in in '19 but his xBA was in the bottom 30th percentile.  Everything cratered in '20 as far as his statcast.  

When you couple that with his personal issues you have a very risky player.  Sure hes cheaper than hes ever been but (not to beat a dead horse), I don't think he's happy in Chicago.  Mental prep is a big part of the game and I feel that if he isn't mentally there he won't perform.  I don't think there is a player in MLB that could benefit more from a trade than Bryant.

I'd like to know what you think of these issues. Maybe you see something I don't, cause at his ADP there is huge room for profit.

Edited by damana
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32 minutes ago, damana said:

All valid points, however there are still a lot of red flags.  His statcast data is still subpar.  He's just not hitting the ball as hard as he used to and really struggles against breaking balls.  I understand SSS in '20 but he had the same problem in '19.  He was still Barreling the ball at an above average rate in in '19 but his xBA was in the bottom 30th percentile.  Everything cratered in '20 as far as his statcast.  

When you couple that with his personal issues you have a very risky player.  Sure hes cheaper than hes ever been but (not to beat a dead horse), I don't think he's happy in Chicago.  Mental prep is a big part of the game and I feel that if he isn't mentally there he won't perform.  I don't think there is a player in MLB that could benefit more from a trade than Bryant.

I'd like to know what you think of these issues. Maybe you see something I don't, cause at his ADP there is huge room for profit.

You are certainly right about his statcast profile.  I guess my response is, if his statcast is blue but his stat lines continue to be red, then so what?  We aren't playing statcast fantasy baseball, we're playing regular-ol' fantasy baseball.  In 2019, subpar statcast and all, he hit .282/.382 - 31 - 77 - 108 - 4.  What's not to like there?  Yes there is the potential that his 2020 season showed us what his statcast was trying to say all along, and that 2021 will continue on this path and he will flop.  But he has no history of doing so, so the risk is not in Bryant being a flop at pick #131, rather, the risk is in assuming he will be and missing out on the value.

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  • 1 month later...
On 1/23/2021 at 7:28 AM, colorado2013 said:

Rethinking this, I might take him but would also have myself another viable 3B on my roster as security.

I couldn't do it in either of my leagues. Had the option to grab him at a decent value, but I think he is too risky. Plus, there were just safer,  more appealing options available at the time.

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48 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Classic panic pick... Is there any reason for optimism here?

Hes just such a popular "over rated" guy that he just might be under rated.  The floor is reasonable and Sonos the ceiling.   I'm certainly not targeting, but he's not a dnd for me.

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I think he's going to be great. Contract year, he's going to be motivated. He'll be healthy.

Big year IMO

 

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51 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

I think he's going to be great. Contract year, he's going to be motivated. He'll be healthy.

Big year IMO

 

what about all those quotes about him not having as much fun even playing the game anymore? Out of context/reading too much into it?  I drafted him and honestly have no idea what to expect 

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2 minutes ago, midlip said:

what about all those quotes about him not having as much fun even playing the game anymore? Out of context/reading too much into it?  I drafted him and honestly have no idea what to expect 

I'm not worried at all about that. He's in a contract year and he damn well knows that if he doesn't produce this year teams won't spend an extended contract on him.

He's gotta game up, be there for 140++ games and produce. As long as he's healthy and in there, I think he scores a boatload of runs, has a decent enough (maybe good) .AVG, hits enough power to beat his ADP by a decent amount.

IDK, I just don't really see a lot of risk with him. 

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Just now, CrypTviLL said:

I'm not worried at all about that. He's in a contract year and he damn well knows that if he doesn't produce this year teams won't spend an extended contract on him.

He's gotta game up, be there for 140++ games and produce. As long as he's healthy and in there, I think he scores a boatload of runs, has a decent enough (maybe good) .AVG, hits enough power to beat his ADP by a decent amount.

IDK, I just don't really see a lot of risk with him. 

 

I would assume you did not have him on any of your teams last year.

As for his mental state, that is what most scares me. I don't care the profession, performance in one's profession is always down when one is miserable with their job. When that depression is strong enough, it can win the battle against intent. 

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