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Trey Mancini 2021 Outlook


svdude
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Great 2019, no 2020 due to cancer, but poised to be back for 2021.

Was looking at some projections and he jumped out as a big outlier in CBS projections.  They have him at .306/37HR/104R/100RBI/3SB (Between Yelich and Harper in Fantasy Points and 5th highest fantasy pts for OF) while steamer has him at .262/24HR/70R/71RBI/1SB.

What can we expect from him in 2021?

 

 

 

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CBS projections are horrible. They also have C.Mullins outscoring Grisham in points leagues, among many other questionable things. 

 

I do think Mancini has a good year though, and I'll definitely be rooting for him. 

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Those projections are very, very generous and appear to believe that he will not suffer at all from a very serious ailment and missed year.

Looks like the average of the other projections is something like: .270/.335 - 23 - 70 - 65 - 1

I will take that as a baseline and add a few more RBIs and Rs as he'll be hitting fourth behind Hays/Stewart/Santander who aren't that terrible and should be on base a decent amount, so let's say .270/.335 - 23 - 80 - 75 - 1?  At pick #182 you can have Mancini at 1B or Sano/Walker/Walsh, or Mancini in OF or Kepler/Frazier/Grichuk.  I think he's in fair company though I'd probably take Walker over him at 1B and Kepler over him at OF.

Here's the other projections HR-R-RBI-SB-BB%-K%-ISO-BABIP-AVG-OBP-SLG-wOBA

2021 THE BAT X 120 507 24 66 68 0 8.5% 22.3% .210 .312 .273 .341 .482 .351            
2021 THE BAT 120 507 22 65 65 1 8.4% 22.3% .200 .310 .269 .337 .468 .344            
2021 ATC 115 488 21 64 66 1 8.0% 22.7% .202 .310 .268 .333 .470 .342            
2021 Depth Charts 120 518 23 65 72 1 7.7% 23.1% .210 .312 .269 .332 .479 .339            
2021 Steamer 120 532 24 70 71 2 8.5% 23.6% .206 .305 .262 .332 .468 .336            
2021 ZiPS 127 527 24 64 77 1 6.8% 22.6% .214 .319 .277 .332 .491 .343            
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Wait and see guy for me. Need to see him get some ABs in Spring Training to be comfortable drafting him. What he went through is rough and it would be surprising to me if he came back at full strength.

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CBS site always has high hitting projections the first time around. There rankings are still last year ranks not going with the projections they have up. I emailed them to see when they will fix them and have not heard back. They don't even have full projections for some players. Missing Realmuto entirely from catchers list.

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  • 2 months later...
  • 1 month later...

I actually did a search and the thread didn’t come up🤷‍♂️(on the first page at least) 

 

Anyways, he leads all of baseball with 39 RBI. The feel good story has morphed into one of serious production. 

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On 5/21/2021 at 6:00 PM, Cheppy said:

I actually did a search and the thread didn’t come up🤷‍♂️(on the first page at least) 

 

Anyways, he leads all of baseball with 39 RBI. The feel good story has morphed into one of serious production. 

41 rbis

 

you have to assume the orioles trade him....right?

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14 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

41 rbis

 

you have to assume the orioles trade him....right?

Have the O's been actively trading him or is it just because the O's aren't going anywhere this year? What would the ideal landing spots be?

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32 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Have the O's been actively trading him or is it just because the O's aren't going anywhere this year? What would the ideal landing spots be?

I don’t know. He is the face of the franchise. Unless the O’s have a mutual understanding with him it would be kind of cold to deal him especially after his cancer recovery..

 

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11 minutes ago, coleporter said:

I don’t know. He is the face of the franchise. Unless the O’s have a mutual understanding with him it would be kind of cold to deal him especially after his cancer recovery..

 

I agree, can't see them trading this guy unless they get blown away with an offer, he's going to be like Nick Markakis was to them for so many years. He'll wind up somewhere else eventually, but not for another 3-5 years. Even the Orioles have to field some quality players.

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1 hour ago, Richard Kimble said:

I agree, can't see them trading this guy unless they get blown away with an offer, he's going to be like Nick Markakis was to them for so many years. He'll wind up somewhere else eventually, but not for another 3-5 years. Even the Orioles have to field some quality players.

um, hes a FA after next year....hell be gone. might as well trade him to the brewers or something and get 2 very good prospects

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20 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

um, hes a FA after next year....hell be gone. might as well trade him to the brewers or something and get 2 very good prospects

My roommate is a Mets fan and thinks they have a shot at him. There certainly is enough interest/demand for his talents. 

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The guy isn't a free agent until after the 2022 season. I get that they can get a lot more now than during his free agent year, but that would be a hell of a slap to the faces of the fans to trade a guy making such a great comeback from cancer when he is a year and a half away from free agency. 

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21 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

um, hes a FA after next year....hell be gone. might as well trade him to the brewers or something and get 2 very good prospects

So there's zero chance they will approach him for an extension this summer? He won't be receptive to it? I think it's wrong to assume they are looking to cash in on him, because he's such an important part of their laughingstock team. Chris Davis is coming off the books next year, but his contract should remind people that even the Orioles spend big $ from time to time. Even if they don't extend Mancini, there are so many big name free agents out there next  year, I'd expect them to make a move to sign a cornerstone guy, except they have one right here they can negotiate with now. 

I think he's earning it every day and they will reward him with an extension offer this summer or offseason. Do it now to avoid the inevitable cloud of a trade hanging over his head next season. If they really have no plans to sign him then yes, he will be dealt. But he seems a reasonable candidate to take a team friendly deal, as well. 

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Mancini was hbp from cease right on the right elbow, sounded like his elbow blew up. He stayed in to run and was pulled at the bottom of the inning. I sure hope he’s ok, but that sounded bad hoping no broken bone. Where is the hamate bone? On elbow?

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On 5/26/2021 at 9:01 AM, Words said:

 I get that they can get a lot more now than during his free agent year, but that would be a hell of a slap to the faces of the fans to trade a guy making such a great comeback from cancer when he is a year and a half away from free agency. 

They're the Orioles.  Slapping their fans across the face repeatedly is what they're all about. 

**Not that there is anything wrong with the fans accepting/enjoying that .... this forum needs to remain free from kink-shaming.

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26 minutes ago, mannymachado said:

Mancini was hbp from cease right on the right elbow, sounded like his elbow blew up. He stayed in to run and was pulled at the bottom of the inning. I sure hope he’s ok, but that sounded bad hoping no broken bone. Where is the hamate bone? On elbow?

Hamate bone is in your hand. It’s above your wrist towards your pinkie finger side. 

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