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Trey Mancini 2021 Outlook


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Great 2019, no 2020 due to cancer, but poised to be back for 2021.

Was looking at some projections and he jumped out as a big outlier in CBS projections.  They have him at .306/37HR/104R/100RBI/3SB (Between Yelich and Harper in Fantasy Points and 5th highest fantasy pts for OF) while steamer has him at .262/24HR/70R/71RBI/1SB.

What can we expect from him in 2021?

 

 

 

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CBS projections are horrible. They also have C.Mullins outscoring Grisham in points leagues, among many other questionable things. 

 

I do think Mancini has a good year though, and I'll definitely be rooting for him. 

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Those projections are very, very generous and appear to believe that he will not suffer at all from a very serious ailment and missed year.

Looks like the average of the other projections is something like: .270/.335 - 23 - 70 - 65 - 1

I will take that as a baseline and add a few more RBIs and Rs as he'll be hitting fourth behind Hays/Stewart/Santander who aren't that terrible and should be on base a decent amount, so let's say .270/.335 - 23 - 80 - 75 - 1?  At pick #182 you can have Mancini at 1B or Sano/Walker/Walsh, or Mancini in OF or Kepler/Frazier/Grichuk.  I think he's in fair company though I'd probably take Walker over him at 1B and Kepler over him at OF.

Here's the other projections HR-R-RBI-SB-BB%-K%-ISO-BABIP-AVG-OBP-SLG-wOBA

2021 THE BAT X 120 507 24 66 68 0 8.5% 22.3% .210 .312 .273 .341 .482 .351            
2021 THE BAT 120 507 22 65 65 1 8.4% 22.3% .200 .310 .269 .337 .468 .344            
2021 ATC 115 488 21 64 66 1 8.0% 22.7% .202 .310 .268 .333 .470 .342            
2021 Depth Charts 120 518 23 65 72 1 7.7% 23.1% .210 .312 .269 .332 .479 .339            
2021 Steamer 120 532 24 70 71 2 8.5% 23.6% .206 .305 .262 .332 .468 .336            
2021 ZiPS 127 527 24 64 77 1 6.8% 22.6% .214 .319 .277 .332 .491 .343            
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Wait and see guy for me. Need to see him get some ABs in Spring Training to be comfortable drafting him. What he went through is rough and it would be surprising to me if he came back at full strength.

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CBS site always has high hitting projections the first time around. There rankings are still last year ranks not going with the projections they have up. I emailed them to see when they will fix them and have not heard back. They don't even have full projections for some players. Missing Realmuto entirely from catchers list.

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CBS projections get better as the season approaches. They have some oddball ones until then. I remember they had Jake Cave as a top 10 player in Jan of 2018. 

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  • 2 months later...

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