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Tarik Skubal 2021 Outlook


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So do we think he's on the up and up, or just riding a little hot streak ?

He's yet to pitch past 6 innings which he's only done twice, although the Ks he's racking up are very nice. 

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7 hours ago, tonywow said:

So do we think he's on the up and up, or just riding a little hot streak ?

He's yet to pitch past 6 innings which he's only done twice, although the Ks he's racking up are very nice. 

It is always difficult to say with certainty when it comes to young pitching, but there has been real and quantifiable changes to his pitch usage and sequencing.

That, plus the raw stuff is definitely good enough to bring him into that near-trustworthy area of SPs imo.

He prob isn't destined to be a guy that will work deep--given his experience and command. But points league players can still really utilize him.

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He is still making some mistakes over the heart of the plate, but generally executing his arsenal well. He did work the edges pretty effectively.

He wasn't feeling his CU and went away from it yesterday, for some reason...only threw 8 (74 MPH), but did toss 9 nice sliders (87 MPH) with 2 called strikes and 4 swinging strikes.

FA sat 95 MPH and touched 97, pairs it with sinker at 94 mph and both move a ton and with distinctively alternate actions--he got 4 called strikes and 6 swinging on the 2 offerings.

Highlight yesterday was the CH, had excellent dive and dart movements, sat 82 MPH, threw 21 with 4 called strikes and 6 swingers on it.

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2 minutes ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

I'm reading quite a few articles saying this guy should be owned in most every format.  What do his advanced metrics say?  Is this a guy I should be out there attempting to get?

Idk about his advanced metrics but I agree he should be owned pretty much everywhere. The tigers pitching coaches (and Hinch too) seem to be getting a lot out of the pitching prospects they have with Skubal and Mize both looking like two of the better rookie pitchers this season. 

He has great strikeout stuff, been throwing his changeup more and it is a great pitch, and slider is also a plus pitch as well. Right now the only thing holding him back has been the homeruns which I've noticed seem to come mainly off his fastball when he leaves it too close to the middle of the plate. I think if he locates his fastball better it can be a way better pitch as it's velocity is definitely up there compared to other lefty starters.

Couple the raw skills with the fact that they've really been letting him pitch reasonably deep in to games, he's thrown 90+ pitches his last 8 starts, I think he's an excellent fantasy option.

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The charts really showed a guy that has some serious stuff:

FA sat 94 and was hitting 96 MPH, simply awesome movement on the offering, both vertically and horizontally, ran up 52 with 10 called strikes and 6 whiffs

SI comes in around the same speed, again killer movement but even more horizontal run with it, mixed in 10--2 called strikes and 2 swingers on it

SL was main secondary, complimentary actions to FA/SI and great spot on his velo spectrum at 86-88 MPH, threw 16 and got 3 called strikes and 2 whiffs

CH really has some excellent fade and fall to it, fits in on spectrum very well 81-83 MPH, tossed 10--getting 1 called strike and 3 whiffs with it

CU was featured more and I would love for him to continuing gaining feel w/ it, really nice shape on it and comes in at 73 MPH, spun 8 with a called strike and swing on it

I think we are looking at a guy that can bring it up to anther level soon, his movement on everything is nasty. This is a kid that needs some help with sequencing here and there but I like all the ingredients I am seeing with him. There will be bouts of inconsistency as he learns to trust his stuff but the charts (and views I have taken) are shouting loudly. Some shoddy defense ran up his pitch count last night too. I hope they continue to pair him with catcher Jake Rogers...let these two grow together.

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9 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I hope they continue to pair him with catcher Jake Rogers...let these two grow together.

I'm starting to like Rogers quite a bit, and think he's the guy to watch over Haase. He busted out a triple yesterday and showed some impressive speed on the bases, and he has a steal or two. I think he actually might be what everyone hoped Daulton Varsho was. I'm a big fan of the dynamic of letting pitchers who worked with a catcher extensively in the minors grow together in the big leagues. Minnesota is doing the same thing with Jeffers/Ober with some decent results. 

Coming into season, I was not such a big believer in Mize, and he has impressed me quite a bit, but I thought Skubal was the real deal and I'm glad to see its translating to some good results. I am not sure what the plan is for either, as the Tigers talked about "short stints" for Mize starting in June, but that hasn't materialized, so just ride these guys until further notice. 

Edited by Richard Kimble
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Yeah, that was pretty sweet yesterday:

FA- was up 1 full tick, sitting at 95+ mph! and hitting 98, pitch just has so much movement, esp vertically, tossed 34--4 called strikes and 7 whiffs

SI- was featured much more yesterday, sitting 93-95 mph, another absurd mover but complements the FA well with alomst 2x the horizontal action, threw 26--5 called strikes/3whiffs

CH- was also worked in more, it is so nasty with outstanding vert and horizontal actions, he was freezing guys with it--esp in upper quadrants of the zone, love that wrinkle! He sat with the offering at 82/83 mph (great on his spectrum) throwing 19--5 called strikes and 3 whiffs

SL- is a great looking off speed pitch, sits 87 and touches 90 mph, unleashed 18 of them--2 called strikes with 6 whiffs on it

CU- he is still gaining the feel for it, sits 73 MPH and has solid loopy (and complementary) shape, spun up 5 and got a couple whiffs with it

So he got 21 whiffs against a great contact team yesterday, I personally saw 3 pitches that were clear strikes and called balls. It is almost reminiscent of a young Corbin Burnes--where he simply fools the ump because of extremely good movements on his entire arsenal, even the catchers have a hard time framing his stuff, because of the late action. He worked the upper, and esp lower outside zone quadrants to RH hitters insanely well yesterday. 

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1 hour ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yeah, that was pretty sweet yesterday:

FA- was up 1 full tick, sitting at 95+ mph! and hitting 98, pitch just has so much movement, esp vertically, tossed 34--4 called strikes and 7 whiffs

SI- was featured much more yesterday, sitting 93-95 mph, another absurd mover but complements the FA well with alomst 2x the horizontal action, threw 26--5 called strikes/3whiffs

CH- was also worked in more, it is so nasty with outstanding vert and horizontal actions, he was freezing guys with it--esp in upper quadrants of the zone, love that wrinkle! He sat with the offering at 82/83 mph (great on his spectrum) throwing 19--5 called strikes and 3 whiffs

SL- is a great looking off speed pitch, sits 87 and touches 90 mph, unleashed 18 of them--2 called strikes with 6 whiffs on it

CU- he is still gaining the feel for it, sits 73 MPH and has solid loopy (and complementary) shape, spun up 5 and got a couple whiffs with it

So he got 21 whiffs against a great contact team yesterday, I personally saw 3 pitches that were clear strikes and called balls. It is almost reminiscent of a young Corbin Burnes--where he simply fools the ump because of extremely good movements on his entire arsenal, even the catchers have a hard time framing his stuff, because of the late action. He worked the upper, and esp lower outside zone quadrants to RH hitters insanely well yesterday. 

Love you, Steven. Grazie mille.

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16 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Screenshot-20210702-071342-Chrome.jpg

For a second I was thinking he was red in all the right categories and blue in the ones you want to be low in... then I realized that isn't very good at all. That's Carlos Martinez with some strikeout ability. 

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  • 1 month later...

Terrific scoreless QS against Baltimore, 6ks and 5 hits with 1 BB on 85 pitches. Fingers crossed, knock on wood, it looks like the Tigers aren't planning on limiting him. He's got great stuff and for a rookie, currently has the highest K/9 in history for this many games started. Looked very confident with burying his breaking stuff in the dirt, hitting the corners, elevating the FB, mixing up his speeds. Tired a little in the 6th but got out of it. I'm kind of just hoping they keep him going until sometime in mid-September and shut him down around 160, 165 innings.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 9/1/2021 at 10:07 AM, rando said:

Dropski - I have marginal SPs filling out my rotation like Marco Gonzales, Ynoa, and Kluber, and I'm dropping Skubal without second thought.

4 great starts in a row and finally one bad start against a good As team with an umpire that squeezed the crap out of him and a catcher that couldnt frame a picture. Go ahead and drop but probably a bad decision considering he has Pittsburgh up next and is a solid young pitcher on the rise.

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Ugh...came out today after 50 pitches, 3 innings when the Tigers used a pinch-hitter for his spot in an interleague game. Skubal was in a real jam early with 2 runs in and 1st and 3rd, one out, and bounced back to shut the door and record 4 ks over the rest of the outing. I can understand managers getting ready to move on for other options ROS, but this didn't seem like a pre-planned pitch limit. The next outing should provide total clarity, and I'm probably wishful in thinking he can get back to 75+ pitches. The Tigers have actually been stricter than other clubs in keeping Mize and Skubal on 55-60 pitches max in their limited turns, and while Skubal is still getting his Ks, there isn't much appeal if he can't go 5 innings.  

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16 hours ago, Richard Kimble said:

Ugh...came out today after 50 pitches, 3 innings when the Tigers used a pinch-hitter for his spot in an interleague game. Skubal was in a real jam early with 2 runs in and 1st and 3rd, one out, and bounced back to shut the door and record 4 ks over the rest of the outing. I can understand managers getting ready to move on for other options ROS, but this didn't seem like a pre-planned pitch limit. The next outing should provide total clarity, and I'm probably wishful in thinking he can get back to 75+ pitches. The Tigers have actually been stricter than other clubs in keeping Mize and Skubal on 55-60 pitches max in their limited turns, and while Skubal is still getting his Ks, there isn't much appeal if he can't go 5 innings.  

I came to this thread to post something similar. It's unfortunate for those that were maybe counting on Skubal for the stretch run. 

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On 9/5/2021 at 1:43 PM, herschel said:

is det on a 6 man rotation?  cbs has him going on monday at pitt, but then not again at all next week.  trying to see if hes a two starter next week...

Saw this article on MLB.com. It's from a few days ago. Does sound like they're back to a 6 man. 

 

Goodrum played Wednesday behind Wily Peralta, who returned from the 10-day IL to start on the mound against Oakland. He essentially missed one turn in the rotation with a blister on his right index finger. With his return, the Tigers are back to a six-man rotation to help watch the innings workload on young starters Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/tigers-limited-with-september-roster-expansion-options

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