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Trevor Bauer 2021 Outlook


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He's only had 2 ace-like seasons, one of which was an abbreviated season. I would not aggresively seek him out, personally. Not saying he won't prove that he turned a corner last year, just that I am not planning on hitching my horse to that wagon. 

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It's likely I won't have him on many teams as his price is a bit too high for me.  He's going at #15 on NFC and there's just too much uncertainty baked into his track record to feel confident in him as my ace and an early pick.  Plus he was openly using a substance on the ball and it's not clear if that will be as allowed going forward; could kill his spin rate and revert him to a mid-tier starter.  

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14 minutes ago, colorado2013 said:

He's only had 2 ace-like seasons, one of which was an abbreviated season. I would not aggresively seek him out, personally. Not saying he won't prove that he turned a corner last year, just that I am not planning on hitching my horse to that wagon. 

He's one of many very good NL/AL Central pitchers (Him, Bieber, Maeda, Burnes, Darvish) whose numbers are somewhat skewed by horrible competition.  And Bauer's spike is the most due for regression (particularly strand rate.) I can't take that in the 1st round personally.

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46 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

It's likely I won't have him on many teams as his price is a bit too high for me.  He's going at #15 on NFC and there's just too much uncertainty baked into his track record to feel confident in him as my ace and an early pick.  Plus he was openly using a substance on the ball and it's not clear if that will be as allowed going forward; could kill his spin rate and revert him to a mid-tier starter.  

I don't think there's any danger of the substances bring cracked down on, could be wrong of course. If so, we'll see poorer pitching performances across the board from top pitchers (see Gerrit Cole, or just about anyone else who's pitched for the Astros lately lol). However, I do think there's a chance Bauer himself stops using them either way, if he lands a fat multi-year contract.

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4 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

It's likely I won't have him on many teams as his price is a bit too high for me.  He's going at #15 on NFC and there's just too much uncertainty baked into his track record to feel confident in him as my ace and an early pick.  Plus he was openly using a substance on the ball and it's not clear if that will be as allowed going forward; could kill his spin rate and revert him to a mid-tier starter.  

Since when have pitchers NOT used substances on the baseball.  Hitters even want them too because the ball is too slick without something to grip it with therefore more liable to go flying out of control right at their heads.  Tradition just says to put it out of site thus Pineda's snafu on national TV when he put his in plain site back in the day but every pitcher uses some sort of sticky stuff to grip the ball with.

Footnote: The balls in Japan come with a tacky covering for a better grip out of the box.  Maybe MLB should follow their example.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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  • 2 weeks later...
21 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

Bauer to the Dodgers just reinforces my opinion that baseball desperately needs a salary cap and a salary floor.

Just because he'll be paid $85 million for only 2 years? Oh, no, I'm sure all the teams could do that.

Edited by dan
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1 hour ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

Kershaw, Buehler, Bauer, Price, Urias...May nad Gonsolin in the bullpen....

Gonsolin might take Urias' spot. But yes, truly ridiculous 

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I know the Dodgers are normally extra conservative with their pitchers but Bauer should have no limitations right? Not only should he be handle a full season + playoffs but with such a short contract, are they even worried about "ruining him"?

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1 hour ago, Ecofolux said:

I know the Dodgers are normally extra conservative with their pitchers but Bauer should have no limitations right? Not only should he be handle a full season + playoffs but with such a short contract, are they even worried about "ruining him"?

 

Bauer is built for no limitations.  But I think the Dodgers will be a little careful with their $85m dollar toy.  Not much sense abusing him if they are considering extending him at any point.  They want him healthy for the playoffs which is where the Dodgers are headed.

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  • 1 month later...

Surprised there is no recent talk regarding Bauer.  In years past I have been targeting him as a 3rd to 4th tier SP with upside.  In 2019 he disappointed but 2020 he was elite.  Problem is his price is now up there in tier 1/2 with the elites.  His 2020 short season stats are likely unsustainable but if he can hold onto most of those stats then he is worth the high price.   Wondering were the rotoworld community stands on Bauer this year?  

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1 hour ago, RyanksN said:

Surprised there is no recent talk regarding Bauer.  In years past I have been targeting him as a 3rd to 4th tier SP with upside.  In 2019 he disappointed but 2020 he was elite.  Problem is his price is now up there in tier 1/2 with the elites.  His 2020 short season stats are likely unsustainable but if he can hold onto most of those stats then he is worth the high price.   Wondering were the rotoworld community stands on Bauer this year?  

A sub 2 ERA?  No, probably not sustainable. His xFIP was 3.25.  The projection systems have him regressing a bit from that, mostly an ERA around 3.50. They also have his K rate back to his normal 10.6-10.7, rather than the 12.3 he posted last year.

Dude is a horse, so projecting him some 200 innings, he'll K around 240, with that 3.50 ERA.  That puts him right in that tier of SPs behind deGrom, Cole & Bieber.  Seems pretty fairly priced.

I don't think he reverts back to 2019 or pre 2018 Bauer. He's been pretty open about what he was doing last year and MLB doesn't seem interested in doing anything about it.

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2 hours ago, RyanksN said:

Wondering were the rotoworld community stands on Bauer this year?  

I don’t trust him really, as a previous post stated he’s only had to two ace years, and one of those was last year. He got his money.

Thats not to say I wouldn’t own him in any leagues. But I’m not paying face value for him.

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I'd have him 4th behind DeGrom, Cole, Bieber.  But tier 2..there really isn't much difference between those guys.  I have Bauer at the top of the tier since he's most likely to stay healthy (a risk with any pitcher I know), should get you good K's, and now with the Dodgers the wins should rack up (Bauer is also one of the safer bets to go 6+ IP every game).

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I just drafted and ended up with Bauer as my N#1 pitcher and honestly I had my intuition based sinking feeling.  The only solace I am taking is that the Dodgers usually know how to get the best from their pitchers and the run support should more than be there.

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He's a nutter, but should rack up plenty of QS and W's. For my format,  like him better than Cole or Bieber. If DeGrom is gone then Bauer it will be. 

Read he pitched with one eye closed during a spring training game a few weeks ago. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Elviplatinum said:

if you drafted this dude this year, I'm sorry to say, you over paid.  just just drafted a 4.00+ era pitcher in the 2nd round lol 🤣🤣🤦🏽‍♂️🤦🏽‍♂️

*1st Rd* pick for me, guess we will have to see how it play out!

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