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Trevor Bauer 2021 Outlook


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24 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Let's say these accusations are painting a completely accurate picture. If that is the case, how might this impact his 2021 fantasy season? Might the Dodgers suspend him? The MLB? Or would it all just be something in the background that could affect him mentally, but otherwise be something that will play out in the offseason?

 

 

Worst case scenario he is arrested, probably is out on bail, but is then suspended. 

**Also, there are some levels of "roughness" that cannot be consented to ...

Edited by Overlord
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He already is a circus act.  I doubt it will affect his performance.   I happen to love him.  He will be fine.

Have a feeling she will be paid hush money.

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1 minute ago, B&F said:

 

Have a feeling she will be paid hush money.

The demand letter has probably already been sent. 

I suspect Bauer will fire his agent in the immediate future.  He has just received a lesson in why you go max years/max dollars as a big time free agent and a competent agent would have told him that.

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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Raise your hand if your not surprised in the slightest 

I’ll raise mine - never seemed like sometrhing he would would do

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

suspect Bauer will fire his agent in the immediate future.  He has just received a lesson in why you go max years/max dollars as a big time free agent and a competent agent would have told him that.

This doesn't make much sense. You really think the agent wouldn't recommend going for more years? I mean, the agent himself would make way more guaranteed money that way. That had to be a 100% Bauer decision. 

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Feels like something that will either result in a settlement or be dragged out in court for awhile. I doubt (hope?) that there’s anything actionable to be done in the meantime re: fantasy value. 

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So he only “choked out” and “slapped in the face” this woman at her own behest - a couple of months ago.  I feel sure this will end well.

 

Look forward to his ASG appearance.

Edited by BMcP
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5 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

Let's say these accusations are painting a completely accurate picture. If that is the case, how might this impact his 2021 fantasy season? Might the Dodgers suspend him? The MLB? Or would it all just be something in the background that could affect him mentally, but otherwise be something that will play out in the offseason?

 

 

Goes to court - mlb waits until the case is settled but Dodgers may suspend him until the court case is settled which is the big fantasy risk imo  

Doesnt go to court - mlb suspends him 10-30 games for “conduct not consistent with mlb policy” Definitely a suspension but the length is based on how accurate the accusations are. 

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6 hours ago, Overlord said:

Trevor Bauer seems like he would be bright enough to record all encounters and obtain documented vigorous consent (which should be standard for any man of means, along with a vasectomy if you don't want kids) so I suspect that this won't go anywhere.

But if he didn't and this turns into a he said/she said, well, this will get ugly.

He also seems like the kind of guy to fight it.  I don't think there will be any settlements or whatever.

I'm not a fan of Bauer as a person, the Dodgers are my least favorite team and I don't have any shares of Bauer, So I'd be quite fine with him being nailed if guilty. But this sounds like it will blow over.

Lawyers can be slippery, but either his lawyer is just blatantly fabricating things, or there is considerable exculpatory evidence. 

Never been a big believer even from a fantasy POV, but this could be a crazy buy low opportunity due to all the sticky stuff.  Even if he's not a real ace, he gets Ks, eats innings and plays for a great team and should get Ws.

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8 minutes ago, GamblorLA said:

He also seems like the kind of guy to fight it.  I don't think there will be any settlements or whatever.

I'm not a fan of Bauer as a person, the Dodgers are my least favorite team and I don't have any shares of Bauer, So I'd be quite fine with him being nailed if guilty. But this sounds like it will blow over.

Lawyers can be slippery, but either his lawyer is just blatantly fabricating things, or there is considerable exculpatory evidence. 

Never been a big believer even from a fantasy POV, but this could be a crazy buy low opportunity due to all the sticky stuff.  Even if he's not a real ace, he gets Ks, eats innings and plays for a great team and should get Ws.

Exculpatory or inculpatory, the evidence will indicate his willingness to choke and slap a woman.  Let’s see how Manfred and Theo deal with this one.

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I am interested to see if Bauer will fight this.  He is a different cat and might not do what really is best and pay her off to have her go away.

 

 

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13 hours ago, cs3 said:

This doesn't make much sense. You really think the agent wouldn't recommend going for more years? I mean, the agent himself would make way more guaranteed money that way. That had to be a 100% Bauer decision. 

Herself.  Sorry, not to nitpick, but Bauer is (very publicly) represented by Rachel Luba.

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13 hours ago, cs3 said:

This doesn't make much sense. You really think the agent wouldn't recommend going for more years? I mean, the agent himself would make way more guaranteed money that way. That had to be a 100% Bauer decision. 

The agent might be trying to make a name for themselves, might have underestimated risk factors, or might simply have poor client control.  

Agents aren't infallible.  Look at the disastrous Albies contract or the poor decision-making of umpteen players who turned down qualifying offers (Ian Desmond, Craig Kimbrel, and Keuchel collectively lost tens of millions).

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1 minute ago, Overlord said:

The agent might be trying to make a name for themselves, might have underestimated risk factors, or might simply have poor client control.  

Agents aren't infallible.  Look at the disastrous Albies contract or the poor decision-making of umpteen players who turned down qualifying offers (Ian Desmond, Craig Kimbrel, and Keuchel collectively lost tens of millions).

  Making a name for herself?  What does that even mean?  How would taking a short term contract over a long term one really help the agent to the point where she'd want to do it. Obviously Bauer wanted to play for a contending team with a good reputation, like the Dodgers, the Dodgers were only willing to give him this type of deal.  Bauer knew the risks and took it.   This wasn't some brilliant idea from the agent that he reluctantly chose to hop on board with.

You're right in citing all the examples you did.  Every decision is always a risk.  Sometimes they work out sometimes they don't.  For every person with a high paying job that makes a great decision for their client, there is some high paid  GM on the other side who made the wrong decision. That's how it generally works. 

That being said Bauer is halfway through year 1 of a deal that is 3 years on with an opt out or two. I wouldn't be quick to say he's made the wrong financial decision.  Either way this guy has pocket over 60 million after this year with like 66 million left guaranteed if he opts in.  Whether the money he makes after this deal makes up for the larger guarantee before it is up for debate, but I think he'll be ok either way.

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9 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

  Making a name for herself?  What does that even mean?

In reputation-based, highly competitive industry it can be difficult to rise above the pack or differentiate the services you offer.

Being seen as professionally creative or even just receiving press discussion of unusually constructed contracts could very easily be seem as beneficial.

Edited by Overlord
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49 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

Herself.  Sorry, not to nitpick, but Bauer is (very publicly) represented by Rachel Luba.

Isn’t his agent Jon Fetterolf?

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24 minutes ago, Overlord said:

In reputation-based, highly competitive industry it can be difficult to rise above the pack or differentiate the services you offer.

Being seen as professionally creative or even just receiving press discussion of unusually constructed contracts could very easily be seem as beneficial.

I guess you explained that pretty well. I disagree that's what happened here, but that does make some sense.  Well before he signed with the Dodgers he was someone who wanted to take 1 year deals. Source: [ https://www.redlegnation.com/2020/04/08/reds-pitcher-trevor-bauer-on-why-hes-only-signing-1-year-deals/]

Taking a 3 year deal with multiple chances to opt out is basically a safer way of doing this.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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What are the odds that he pitches Sunday? It's kind of a tough spot for the league since it's very serious allegations, but also tough to suspend every player that's accused of any wrong doing. Away game too, so if he does make the start he won't have a very fun time doing it. Wasn't loved by opposing fans to begin with. 

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