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41 minutes ago, BMcP said:

PFF ranked him 14th overall in both 2018 and 2019 and he broke the franchise records for both passing yardage and completions in ‘19 - he’s been much better (even excluding 2017) than “way below average.”

He was decent in 11 games in 2018, but that's not a huge sample size again. He was bad in 2019, PFF grade be damned. He only threw 72% of his passes on target (down to 70% in 2021). His completion percentage has been barely over 60% the majority of his career, dipping below that mark in 2021. He's just not an accurate thrower of the football, at all. That's not a good trait as a QB.  

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Well, if you're the Bears, you'd give up many to move up ONE spot and NOT draft Patrick Mahomes. 

The question with guys like Wentz and Goff should not be "how much will you give for him" but rather "how much does the team getting rid have to throw in as compensation for their terrible contracts?"

Indy Star's Jim Ayello reports the Colts received a "pretty firm not available" from the Raiders when checking in on Derek Carr.

Before they traded for Carson Wentz, the Colts called the Raiders about Carr, who has been in the midst of trade discussions for seasons. While both are theoretically on the trade block, it's clear that the Raiders want to trade Marcus Mariota, not Carr this offseason. Analytically, Carr was a top-12 passer last season and has cap hits of just $22.1 million and $19.9 million over the next two years. A team will have to blow the Raiders away with an offer for Carr to be dealt.

Feb 18, 2021, 3:50 PM ET
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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

He was decent in 11 games in 2018, but that's not a huge sample size again. He was bad in 2019, PFF grade be damned. He only threw 72% of his passes on target (down to 70% in 2021). His completion percentage has been barely over 60% the majority of his career, dipping below that mark in 2021. He's just not an accurate thrower of the football, at all. That's not a good trait as a QB.  

I can’t argue that point - for the most part, accuracy has been his most glaring weakness (although he tends to be more accurate on the move).  He ranked 12th in accuracy in 2017 - Reich and Ballard are clearly hoping a reunion with Reich will result in improvement in this area.

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Goff gets shipped out with an extra first going the other way to get rid of him.  Goff has won 3 playoff games.  Wentz has zero playoff wins, got shipped out for probably a 2022 1st rounder as long as he doesn't get hurt, and I see tons of Colts fans not only happy but also insisting this was highway robbery.

 

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45 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Goff gets shipped out with an extra first going the other way to get rid of him.  Goff has won 3 playoff games.  Wentz has zero playoff wins, got shipped out for probably a 2022 1st rounder as long as he doesn't get hurt, and I see tons of Colts fans not only happy but also insisting this was highway robbery

I think it was a fair trade for the Colts and a reasonable calculated risk for them to take, certainly not highway robbery.  I personally think Wentz is going to underperform in Indy like he did last year in Philly but probably won't completely bomb.  Somewhere between Tyrod Taylor and Derek Carr for 2021 performance is my guess.  Probably will be a sideways move for the Colts from Rivers, although Wentz has better running ability will add about 200 rush yards over Rivers.  If Wentz fixes his mechanics and has an all-pro season I'll be the first to eat my words, but I see the Colts leaning on Taylor and the ground game and using Wentz like Tannehill with well under 500 attempts, but he won't get the bunches of long bombs like Tanny gets to heave to A.J. Brown that gives Tanny a lot more value for fantasy. 

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44 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I hope they let Wentz throw deep - his deep-ball accuracy was one of his consistent strong-suits prior to 2020.

Yeah, if you're an "advanced stats" guy you can see his performance in the 2017 timeframe was top 5 or so in yards/attempt and adjusted net yards/attempt, which is where Tannehill is in 2020. Wentz fell off the cliff in both those in 2020 and ranked 35th or so.  Without a wideout as good as A.J. Brown on the Colts that's why I said Wentz likely tops out as 2020 Rivers plus 200-300 rushing yards.  Wentz will be in the same situation as JimmyG in SF with a bunch of raw upside guys as WR weapons, Deebo and Aiyuk are barely distinguishable from Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell.  JimmyG has Kittle and Wentz has the better OL so those net out. But I bet Wentz's stats will be capped the same way JimmyG's are.    

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/passing.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/passing.htm

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3 minutes ago, jumper said:

Yeah, if you're an "advanced stats" guy you can see his performance in the 2017 timeframe was top 5 or so in yards/attempt and adjusted net yards/attempt, which is where Tannehill is in 2020. Wentz fell off the cliff in both those in 2020 and ranked 35th or so.  Without a wideout as good as A.J. Brown on the Colts that's why I said Wentz likely tops out as 2020 Rivers plus 200-300 rushing yards.  Wentz will be in the same situation as JimmyG in SF with a bunch of raw upside guys as WR weapons, Deebo and Aiyuk are barely distinguishable from Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell.  JimmyG has Kittle and Wentz has the better OL so those net out. But I bet Wentz's stats will be capped the same way JimmyG's are.    

True, but I was mainly referring to 2018 and 2019, when he ranked within the top-10 passers in the league on deep balls - another fact that largely goes unmentioned by those claiming he’s beyond hope.

I think it’s too soon to tell what the Colts offense looks like this year - just too many unknowns still.  But I definitely expect him to substantially outperform end-of-the-road Rivers - Ballard and Reich are highly incentivized to prove that their faith in Wentz as their new franchise QB for the foreseeable future was well founded.

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6 minutes ago, BMcP said:

True, but I was mainly referring to 2018 and 2019, when he ranked within the top-10 passers in the league on deep balls - another fact that largely goes unmentioned by those claiming he’s beyond hope.

I think it’s too soon to tell what the Colts offense looks like this year - just too many unknowns still.  But I definitely expect him to substantially outperform end-of-the-road Rivers - Ballard and Reich are highly incentivized to prove that their faith in Wentz as their new franchise QB for the foreseeable future was well founded.

So with the incentivized Ballard and Reich, that puts Wentz's ceiling higher than Rivers and into the Derek Carr to Kirk Cousins range?  Again, where exactly is the extra performance going to come from, especially with the Colts losing T.Y. Hilton and most of their TEs to likely FA departures?  That's like 1,500 receiving yards right there. Wentz's weapons for 2021 are currently Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, Zach Pascal, TE Jack Doyle and RBs Taylor and Hines.  Even if we say Pittman and Campbell both have huge 2nd year leaps (yeah I know 3rd year for Campbell but he missed last year on IR), and Pascal and Doyle have peak career years, that's still a lot of yards to make up much less improve on Rivers.  Where's the extra performance coming from to allow Wentz to improve on Rivers - are the Colts also going to sign ARob and Hunter Henry?

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1 minute ago, jumper said:

So with the incentivized Ballard and Reich, that puts Wentz's ceiling higher than Rivers and into the Derek Carr to Kirk Cousins range?  Again, where exactly is the extra performance going to come from, especially with the Colts losing T.Y. Hilton and most of their TEs to likely FA departures?  That's like 1,500 receiving yards right there. Wentz's weapons for 2021 are currently Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, Zach Pascal, TE Jack Doyle and RBs Taylor and Hines.  Even if we say Pittman and Campbell both have huge 2nd year leaps (yeah I know 3rd year for Campbell but he missed last year on IR), and Pascal and Doyle have peak career years, that's still a lot of yards to make up much less improve on Rivers.  Where's the extra performance coming from to allow Wentz to improve on Rivers - are the Colts also going to sign ARob and Hunter Henry?

They certainly could sign both A-Rob and Henry - they still have tons of projected cap space to work with if they choose.  Or they could re-sign one or both of Pascal and Hilton - or they could look to replenish via the draft.  One thing is certain: they didn’t make this trade with the thought of just treading water for the next couple of years.  And they didn’t have to sacrifice very much in the way of draft capital, which makes the task of adding to their offense even easier.

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12 minutes ago, BMcP said:

They certainly could sign both A-Rob and Henry - they still have tons of projected cap space to work with if they choose.  Or they could re-sign one or both of Pascal and Hilton - or they could look to replenish via the draft.  One thing is certain: they didn’t make this trade with the thought of just treading water for the next couple of years.  And they didn’t have to sacrifice very much in the way of draft capital, which makes the task of adding to their offense even easier.

Colts have $50mm left capwise after Wentz.  Besides a new WR and TE they need to replace retiring starter OT Castonzo and both starting CBs.  If they can sign ARob great but that's a lot of needs and that cap space will go quick. If they wind up signing someone like Marvin Jones who's cheaper than ARob he's at best a 1 to 1 replacement for T.Y. 

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11 minutes ago, jumper said:

Colts have $50mm left capwise after Wentz.  Besides a new WR and TE they need to replace retiring starter OT Castonzo and both starting CBs.  If they can sign ARob great but that's a lot of needs and that cap space will go quick. If they wind up signing someone like Marvin Jones who's cheaper than ARob he's at best a 1 to 1 replacement for T.Y. 

I’d be shocked if Ballard doesn’t draft a LT in the first or second.  They probably look to bring back Rhodes, but they’ll let him walk if the price rises above their comfort zone.  They also have Tell coming back and they still have Moore and Ya-Sin, and Carrie is cheap and easily replaced.  (I’d argue they have a more urgent need at edge on defense.)

In any event, the Colts will have plenty of room to spare on upgrading the offense, no matter how they choose to go about it.  But Irsay himself offered up a clue as to what we should expect them to prioritize:

“I think we need another one or two big playmakers on offense, at tight end or wide receiver.  It’s amazing when you see 87 (Travis Kelce) and 10 (Tyreek Hill) in Kansas City, the things they do. It’s remarkable.”

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11 minutes ago, BMcP said:

In any event, the Colts will have plenty of room to spare on upgrading the offense, no matter how they choose to go about it.  But Irsay himself offered up a clue as to what we should expect them to prioritize:

“I think we need another one or two big playmakers on offense, at tight end or wide receiver.  It’s amazing when you see 87 (Travis Kelce) and 10 (Tyreek Hill) in Kansas City, the things they do. It’s remarkable.”

And yet they didn't go for a package deal with Wentz/Ertz.

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4 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I’d be shocked if Ballard doesn’t draft a LT in the first or second.  They probably look to bring back Rhodes, but they’ll let him walk if the price rises above their comfort zone.  They also have Tell coming back and they still have Moore and Ya-Sin, and Carrie is cheap and easily replaced.  (I’d argue they have a more urgent need at edge on defense.)

In any event, the Colts will have plenty of room to spare on upgrading the offense, no matter how they choose to go about it.  But Irsay himself offered up a clue as to what we should expect them to prioritize:

“I think we need another one or two big playmakers on offense, at tight end or wide receiver.  It’s amazing when you see 87 (Travis Kelce) and 10 (Tyreek Hill) in Kansas City, the things they do. It’s remarkable.”

One of the best back and forth discussions I've had on here, thanks.  I will certainly re-evaluate Wentz after the Colts have made their moves in free agency and draft.  As you said they could go a bunch of different ways in filling their varied needs, from a "stars and scrubs" approach where they make a big splash acquisition like ARob and stud LT, or they could pay up for a pass rusher, or whatever else.  I guess ideally they could trade for Ravens OT Orlando Brown (cap hit $1.1mm for 2021) and that would probably free up the dough to resign Rhodes and ARob, but that would probably cost the Colts their 1st rounder.  Maybe it's worth it to them.  Would probably give them the best bang for the buck in terms of both cap space and draft capital if they do that. 

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2 minutes ago, jumper said:

One of the best back and forth discussions I've had on here, thanks.  I will certainly re-evaluate Wentz after the Colts have made their moves in free agency and draft.  As you said they could go a bunch of different ways in filling their varied needs, from a "stars and scrubs" approach where they make a big splash acquisition like ARob and stud LT, or they could pay up for a pass rusher, or whatever else.  I guess ideally they could trade for Ravens OT Orlando Brown (cap hit $1.1mm for 2021) and that would probably free up the dough to resign Rhodes and ARob, but that would probably cost the Colts their 1st rounder.  Maybe it's worth it to them.  Would probably give them the best bang for the buck in terms of both cap space and draft capital if they do that. 

Thanks!  Likewise, I really enjoy reading your insights - keep them coming!

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Updating from original group in the first post. 

 

Dallas - Looks like Dak will be back. 

Indy - Wentz

Jacksonville - 99.9% will be Lawrence. 

Chicago 

New England

Washington

Denver

NY Jets

Detroit - Goff

*Houston 

*Niners 

*Miami - Probably Tua, unless they get Watson. 

** Pittsburgh - Still iffy, but guessing Big Ben plays one more year. 

** Atlanta - Looks like Ryan will be back

** Carolina 

** Rams - Stafford

 

This leaves 8 teams that still either have no one, or clearly want to upgrade QB. Other than Watson and maybe 2 or 3 immediate impact starters, there isn't much left. There are going to be 4 or 5 teams picking between the likes of Jimmy G, Bridgewater, Mariota, Darnold, Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor, Cam Newton, Drew Lock, Ryan Fitzpatrick, etc. 

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For fun. 

 

Chicago  - Bridgewater and a rookie

New England - Jimmy G. 

Washington - Mariota

Denver - Darnold and Lock

NY Jets - Trubisky and a rookie

Houston - Tyrod Taylor and a rookie

Niners - Fitzpatrick and a rookie

Carolina - Watson

Cam Newton left waiting for an opportunity. 

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7 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

For fun. 

 

Chicago  - Bridgewater and a rookie

New England - Jimmy G. 

Washington - Mariota

Denver - Darnold and Lock

NY Jets - Trubisky and a rookie

Houston - Tyrod Taylor and a rookie

Niners - Fitzpatrick and a rookie

Carolina - Watson

Cam Newton left waiting for an opportunity. 

 

Good list but I don't think anyone will bite on a trade for Mariotta when someone like FA Andy Dalton gives the same level of update without needing to give up anything to get.  WFT will probably resign Kyle Allen to be week 1 starter with Dalton signed to complete.

This list also leaves out NO since I presume Brees is retiring.  Jameis Winston is worth a try for them presuming he signs another cheap contract with them.  If not then I could see him bumping Tryod as the starter in HOU.  

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8 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

Good list but I don't think anyone will bite on a trade for Mariotta when someone like FA Andy Dalton gives the same level of update without needing to give up anything to get.  WFT will probably resign Kyle Allen to be week 1 starter with Dalton signed to complete.

This list also leaves out NO since I presume Brees is retiring.  Jameis Winston is worth a try for them presuming he signs another cheap contract with them.  If not then I could see him bumping Tryod as the starter in HOU.  

Dalton and Kyle Allen are nothing more than emergency QBs. I can't see a team with an elite defense and an improving offense going with no upside JAGs at QB. It may not be Mariota, but I think Washington brings in someone with a ceiling. 

I assume Hill and Jameis will be back in New Orleans. I'm no longer sure which of the two will be the starter though. 

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Where's there's smoke...

Jimmy Garoppolo's $51.1 million over the final two years of his contract is not guaranteed. 

The Athletic's Jeff Howe said if the Patriots acquired Garoppolo this offseason, they "could move on at any point. That would give them the freedom to still spend a high pick on a quarterback" in the upcoming NFL Draft. Howe added that "Garoppolo would be more valuable to the Patriots than anyone else, which is why I’d be surprised if the 49ers had many suitors." The Niners continue to insist the constantly-injured Garoppolo isn't available -- it's a transparent effort to gain leverage on the Patriots or another trade partner. Garoppolo, who started two games for the Pats in his three seasons with New England, would be familiar with the team's offense, giving him an edge on free agents signal callers. He would be a fantasy non-factor in the Patriots' skill-deficient offense. 

Source: The Athletic
Feb 19, 2021, 10:01 AM ET
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6 minutes ago, The G Man said:

Where's there's smoke...

Jimmy Garoppolo's $51.1 million over the final two years of his contract is not guaranteed. 

The Athletic's Jeff Howe said if the Patriots acquired Garoppolo this offseason, they "could move on at any point. That would give them the freedom to still spend a high pick on a quarterback" in the upcoming NFL Draft. Howe added that "Garoppolo would be more valuable to the Patriots than anyone else, which is why I’d be surprised if the 49ers had many suitors." The Niners continue to insist the constantly-injured Garoppolo isn't available -- it's a transparent effort to gain leverage on the Patriots or another trade partner. Garoppolo, who started two games for the Pats in his three seasons with New England, would be familiar with the team's offense, giving him an edge on free agents signal callers. He would be a fantasy non-factor in the Patriots' skill-deficient offense. 

Source: The Athletic
Feb 19, 2021, 10:01 AM ET

 

I think the Niners are going to be stuck with him for 2021 unless they let him go for a late day-3 pick.  Pats need an entire offensive rebuild and trading for JimmyG and his $26mm cap hit doesn't help that happen.  For the same money give me Fitz and ARob from free agency and you're in a better place in 2021 and going forward.  

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17 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

I think the Niners are going to be stuck with him for 2021 unless they let him go for a late day-3 pick.  Pats need an entire offensive rebuild and trading for JimmyG and his $26mm cap hit doesn't help that happen.  For the same money give me Fitz and ARob from free agency and you're in a better place in 2021 and going forward.  

They have a good O-line. If you believe Harris is hasn't reached his ceiling, they could have their RB too. Other than a QB, they need a couple of legit pass catchers. If, say, the Pats get Jimmy G, trade for Ertz, and sign a WR (AROb, Golladay, etc), that offense looks really good. I wouldn't call that an entire rebuild. 

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3 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 

 

 I wonder if there's a reason for this, or if it's just pure speculation. Interesting though. As a Watson fan, I don't hate it. 

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4 hours ago, ajs723 said:

 I wonder if there's a reason for this, or if it's just pure speculation. Interesting though. As a Watson fan, I don't hate it. 

As far as I know such odds are at least partially influenced by the betting, so they may be quite lopsided for various reasons.

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