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7 teams from the Central made the postseason last year in the 60 game sprint. Those 7 teams went 2-14 and none of them got past the opening round. Bieber was beat like he stole something when he faced a non central team for the first and only time last year. He still will get to face many central teams but will have to face other divisions too. I still might have him as my SP3 but I will likely own zero shares and go with a bat once DeGrom and Cole are off the board.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/28/2021 at 4:02 PM, turner46 said:

7 teams from the Central made the postseason last year in the 60 game sprint. Those 7 teams went 2-14 and none of them got past the opening round. Bieber was beat like he stole something when he faced a non central team for the first and only time last year. He still will get to face many central teams but will have to face other divisions too. I still might have him as my SP3 but I will likely own zero shares and go with a bat once DeGrom and Cole are off the board.

In 2019 at the age of 24 he had a 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.9 SO9, and league leading 1.7 BB9 and league leader in CG and SO. He had a 3.32 FIP and 14% swinging strikes... So don't come at my boy like he's some mirage after bringing home hardware last year, he proved he was legit in 19.

Okay so when he got to face central teams all year he had a 1.63 ERA with an 0.87 whip and 14 so9... Yes he is not going to repeat a 1.63 ERA this year lol, but he's still an Ace and his repitoire runs deeper than the grand canyon.

Kershaw sucks in the playoffs every year but was one of the best regular season guys on history year after year.

He's so good he will be the most famous Bieber in 3 years time.

Edited by StevieStats
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17 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

In 2019 at the age of 24 he had a 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.9 SO9, and league leading 1.7 BB9 and league leader in CG and SO. He had a 3.32 FIP and 14% swinging strikes... So don't come at my boy like he's some mirage after bringing home hardware last year, he proved he was legit in 19.

Okay so when he got to face central teams all year he had a 1.63 ERA with an 0.87 whip and 14 so9... Yes he is not going to repeat a 1.63 ERA this year lol, but he's still an Ace and his repitoire runs deeper than the grand canyon.

Kershaw sucks in the playoffs every year but was one of the best regular season guys on history year after year.

He's so good he will be the most famous Bieber in 3 years time.

 

I did say I still might have him as my sp3 but due to the small sample I still stand by my statement that if DeGrom and Cole are off the board I will draft a bat in late round 1, early round 2.

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1 hour ago, turner46 said:

 

I did say I still might have him as my sp3 but due to the small sample I still stand by my statement that if DeGrom and Cole are off the board I will draft a bat in late round 1, early round 2.

I don’t have much separation between the big 3 and will continue to happily draft Bieber in the 9-11th slots of the first round. I’m not really a big fan of the “pocket aces” strategy as I tend to like to stock up on big bats early in drafts, but I like doing it this year with Bieber in the first and then Bauer (not usually available), Darvish, or Giolito in the 2nd. I have a pretty big gap between those guys and the next tier (Buehler, Nola, etc) so if none of those 3 are there, I load up on bats.

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Kinda think Bieber has a lot more bust potential than his ADP suggests.  He was phenomenal last year but was noticeably worse down the stretch, and he faced a super easy schedule. He also doesn’t have as much “power” stuff as Cole or Degrom.  Plus for those in W leagues the Indians are going to be awful next year 

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On 2/28/2021 at 4:02 PM, turner46 said:

7 teams from the Central made the postseason last year in the 60 game sprint. Those 7 teams went 2-14 and none of them got past the opening round. Bieber was beat like he stole something when he faced a non central team for the first and only time last year. He still will get to face many central teams but will have to face other divisions too. I still might have him as my SP3 but I will likely own zero shares and go with a bat once DeGrom and Cole are off the board.

Hmmm..you may wanna take a look at his 2019 season, last year was no joke 🤣

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5 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Kinda think Bieber has a lot more bust potential than his ADP suggests.

I've always felt this has been true of basically every SP projected as a top 15-25 pick for my entire fantasy baseball career.

What's the baseline "going to miss meaningful time this season due to an injury" risk for an SP, regardless of how healthy they look?  At least something like 10-15%,  right?  By my way of thinking that means the third round is about the earliest I can look at an SP. 

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4 hours ago, Overlord said:

I've always felt this has been true of basically every SP projected as a top 15-25 pick for my entire fantasy baseball career.

What's the baseline "going to miss meaningful time this season due to an injury" risk for an SP, regardless of how healthy they look?  At least something like 10-15%,  right?  By my way of thinking that means the third round is about the earliest I can look at an SP. 

Not to hijack the Bieber thread, but this is why I like pitchers like Cole and Castillo because I'm less concerned about health than, well, like 90% of others lol

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 3/10/2021 at 10:46 AM, StevieStats said:

In 2019 at the age of 24 he had a 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.9 SO9, and league leading 1.7 BB9 and league leader in CG and SO. He had a 3.32 FIP and 14% swinging strikes... So don't come at my boy like he's some mirage after bringing home hardware last year, he proved he was legit in 19.

Okay so when he got to face central teams all year he had a 1.63 ERA with an 0.87 whip and 14 so9... Yes he is not going to repeat a 1.63 ERA this year lol, but he's still an Ace and his repitoire runs deeper than the grand canyon.

Kershaw sucks in the playoffs every year but was one of the best regular season guys on history year after year.

He's so good he will be the most famous Bieber in 3 years time.

I agree with you that his 2019 numbers, where he put up 3rd round value, are a reasonable projection for Bieber, albeit with probably less wins this year considering how much Cleveland has slashed payroll.

The problem is Bieber is going in the top 10 now, following a year in which his numbers were artificially inflated by facing both Central divisions.  I also have the same probably even bigger concerns about Bauer and Darvish.

I have to agree with turner46 that if I can't get deGrom or Cole, I'm going to start off my draft with hitters in the first few rounds.  I don't think Bieber will be a total bust or anything, but I think you're likely paying a top 10 pick for 3rd or 4th round production this year.

Edited by FootballFan101
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10 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

I agree with you that his 2019 numbers, where he put up 3rd round value, are a reasonable projection for Bieber, albeit with probably less wins this year considering how much Cleveland has slashed payroll.

The problem is Bieber is going in the top 10 now, following a year in which his numbers were artificially inflated by facing both Central divisions.  I also have the same probably even bigger concerns about Bauer and Darvish.

I have to agree with turner46 that if I can't get deGrom or Cole, I'm going to start off my draft with hitters in the first few rounds.  I don't think Bieber will be a total bust or anything, but I think you're likely paying a top 10 pick for 3rd or 4th round production this year.

I never said his 1st full year in the league was his projection, I said that year in addition to last year proved he was legit. He's obviously gotten better since his first full year in the league, and his numbers were so incredibly insane last year he could be a full 1 run higher in ERA and still be at 2.63 😆... His spin rates have increased, including his FB spin rate jumping from 50th percentile to 79th percentile, that will stick regardless of what batter he is facing. His repertoire runs deep so he has more ability to adjust to hitters than the typical pitcher and if one of his breaking pitches isn't working one night he's got other options, better ability to avoid bad outings, theoretically. 

This is a maturing ace entering his prime, he's 26 this year. How much are you claiming his numbers were inflated? 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 14.2 SO9 leaves tons of room for adjustment and still be a first round pick... See the other big thing about Bieber is even when guys are making contact it is being put on the ground half the time... Strikeouts and ground balls is a difficult combination to find he's got a dreamy profile.

I would take him over Gerrit Cole this year.

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I may be slightly biased, but I'm with StevieStats for the most part.  I have no problem with where he's being taken/ranked.  Would I take him over Cole?  Who knows, but I think he's worth being put in the same tier as them.  No, he's not going to repeat last season for multiple reasons, but he's a proven reliable ace at this point and you don't do what he did last year by accident even if the competition was weak overall.

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Anything to see here? Was this also an issue in the spring?

 

All three runs came with the snow coming down in the first two innings. Bieber settled in nicely afterwards, though his velocity remained down about two mph from last year. Probably in part due to the cold weather, most of the pitchers working today were throwing a little less hard than usual. Hopefully it won't prove to be a lingering issue for the 2020 AL Cy Young winner.

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6 minutes ago, OrangeCrush said:

Anything to see here? Was this also an issue in the spring?

 

All three runs came with the snow coming down in the first two innings. Bieber settled in nicely afterwards, though his velocity remained down about two mph from last year. Probably in part due to the cold weather, most of the pitchers working today were throwing a little less hard than usual. Hopefully it won't prove to be a lingering issue for the 2020 AL Cy Young winner.

It will pick back up.  It’s cold brotha 

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On 3/28/2021 at 10:39 AM, StevieStats said:

I never said his 1st full year in the league was his projection, I said that year in addition to last year proved he was legit. He's obviously gotten better since his first full year in the league, and his numbers were so incredibly insane last year he could be a full 1 run higher in ERA and still be at 2.63 😆... His spin rates have increased, including his FB spin rate jumping from 50th percentile to 79th percentile, that will stick regardless of what batter he is facing. His repertoire runs deep so he has more ability to adjust to hitters than the typical pitcher and if one of his breaking pitches isn't working one night he's got other options, better ability to avoid bad outings, theoretically. 

This is a maturing ace entering his prime, he's 26 this year. How much are you claiming his numbers were inflated? 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 14.2 SO9 leaves tons of room for adjustment and still be a first round pick... See the other big thing about Bieber is even when guys are making contact it is being put on the ground half the time... Strikeouts and ground balls is a difficult combination to find he's got a dreamy profile.

I would take him over Gerrit Cole this year.

Bieber is obviously a good pitcher, but in standard leagues where wins are a category, I just can't see taking Bieber over Cole.  It's not Bieber's fault, but wins are going to be a big problem for Bieber given how much Cleveland has cut payroll.  Bieber pitched decently well in his first two starts, but even against the two worst teams in the division, Cleveland's pathetic offense hasn't been able to give him enough run support to win either game.  I would definitely take the under on over/under 12 wins for Bieber this year.

Edited by FootballFan101
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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

Bieber is obviously a good pitcher, but in standard leagues where wins are a category, I just can't see taking Bieber over Cole.  It's not Bieber's fault, but wins are going to be a big problem for Bieber given how much Cleveland has cut payroll.  Bieber pitched decently well in his first two starts, but even against the two worst teams in the division, Cleveland's pathetic offense hasn't been able to give him enough run support to win either game.  I would definitely take the under on over/under 12 wins for Bieber this year.

Sorry, I don't play 90s fantasy baseball in 2021... Wins are not a category on either of my leagues. 😆

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Imagine the reigning AL Cy Young winner striking out 12 batters in his first two starts, only for us to see so much griping in his 2021 outlook thread

 

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?!?!

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