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Joe Musgrove 2021 Outlook


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Joe Musgrove has a new home and it's a good one.

He somewhat broke out in a shortened 2020 with a 3.86 era and a 12.48 k/9, albeit in only 39.2 IP. He did have the highest bb/9 of his career (3.63) but likely because of his change in pitch mix. He lowered his FB usage, which isn't a great offering, and started relying more on his breaking pitches. The spin rates on both his slider and curveball increased making them even better than they already were.

What are everyones thoughts on Musgrove this season? Does he build on a solid 2020 or will be go back to being a 4+ era 8 k/9 guy?

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24 minutes ago, Shamrocks said:

the only worry for me is that hes a 6th starter/LR type given the SD depth

I highly doubt they traded for a long reliever. I think he'll be the no 4 guy and morejon will fill that 6th starter/LR role.

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yeah but if things arent going great thats a place I suspect they would look to switch up. Pretty cheap trade overall, but my concern with Paddack or Musgrove is that they are likely to get a quick hook if they have a rough stretcg

 

with that said, I love the guys 2021 outlook even with Pittsburgh and hoping for a 3.5 ERA with 9-10K/9

Edited by Shamrocks
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What I love about this guy and what was eluded to in the OP, was Musgrove's move away from his sinker (a pitch that was relied upon under the old regime in Pitt) and a heavier reliance on his breaking stuff.  His curve and slider were used about 45% of the time in '20 which was great considering their elite K numbers.  He now has two out pitches.  Some SP only have two pitches period.  As for his 4 seamer he has good spin on it and while the velocity isn't elite he locates it up in the zone for strikes.  However, the pitch seems to be more of one he throws early in the count than one he uses to punch guys out.  I think Musgrove would benefit from developing his Cutter (Darvish has a great one), as his fastball in general over the last two years has been walloped, to the tune of a .312 BA and a Slg around .525.  He did have a bit of luck with his LOB% and I project that to come down some, although I think the defense behind him is improved so that could lower his BABIP.

I love him landing with the Padres and I think he will thrive in Petco.  I agree with the above projections and see him with a 3.70 ERA with about a 9.5 k/9, with room for growth in both stats.  I do think the increased walk rate is here to stay but I think it will go down from the 3.63 BB/9 it was in '20 as he starts to become more comfortable with his new pitch mix.  I love his ADP of 141, sandwiched between Sandy Alcantara and Patrick Corbin. Needless to say, I like him better than both those guys.

Edited by damana
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4 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

Hi ADP is a bit high for me. While the changes look legit, it was still over a super short sample size. There isn't particularly high upside either.

What SP's do you like around that ADP that you would take over Musgrove? 

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1 hour ago, chucky said:

You can likely grab an Aaron Civale, 4 rounds later. 

Civale is a good pitcher to take a chance on later in the draft, But I don't think he has the k upside or ratio upside of Musgrove at this point in his career.  Cleveland does groom pitchers well, so I may eat my words, but right now I'm taking a chance on Musgrove and his new pitch mix at 141.  The OP said the upside wasn't there and I disagree.  I think Musgrove has the most upside in that area and showed it in a SSS in '20.  There are clear indicators that he was doing something different and the numbers reflected it. 

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On 1/27/2021 at 5:47 PM, Shamrocks said:

the only worry for me is that hes a 6th starter/LR type given the SD depth

 

Joe Musgrove is nothing like a RP/6th starter type. I guess some people just don't watch the guys they comment on.

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11 hours ago, kwolf68 said:

 

Joe Musgrove is nothing like a RP/6th starter type. I guess some people just don't watch the guys they comment on.

No thats cool, i did watch a few of his starts and i like the changes he made, but 8 starts last year and he threw 6 innings twice, yeah the K rate spiked which is great but ERA/FIP around 4 and WHIP 1.2 in his career we are pretty much saying two september starts equals a massive change in what to expect from him. Something Im missing in the underlying stats?

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3 minutes ago, Shamrocks said:

No thats cool, i did watch a few of his starts and i like the changes he made, but 8 starts last year and he threw 6 innings twice, yeah the K rate spiked which is great but ERA/FIP around 4 and WHIP 1.2 in his career we are pretty much saying two september starts equals a massive change in what to expect from him. Something Im missing in the underlying stats?

Just go look at his statcast page from last year...everything that matters(except bb%) was 80th percentile or better.  Across the board results like that aren’t found on many pages.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/joe-musgrove-605397?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

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sure, he had 93 batted balls and under 40 IP. I have him in one league and im happy to but what a small sample size and I feel its really skewed from average to great based upon those two september starts. would love to see him continue it and it will be interesting to see how SDP plays it with their depth and young pitchers if someone struggles

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58 minutes ago, Shamrocks said:

sure, he had 93 batted balls and under 40 IP. I have him in one league and im happy to but what a small sample size and I feel its really skewed from average to great based upon those two september starts. would love to see him continue it and it will be interesting to see how SDP plays it with their depth and young pitchers if someone struggles

 Very sss but he had also caught a ton of attention as a sleeper going into last season because he had multiple pitches that graded out as elite.  There was a simple case that if he changed up his pitch mix he could make massive gains and sure enough he did and the results show it.  So it’s tough to say he was lucky and it’s tough to think he won’t continue to work off those same changes.  He’s also not being drafted in the top 100, he’s in the low 100s which is where you want to be targeting high upside guys(or at least I do) and clearly he does have some high upside while also lacking a rock bottom as he has been serviceable for most of his career.

 

here’s one of the articles from last year for you:

https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-joe-musgrove-could-be-better-if-he-so-chooses/

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Musgrove has big upside: huge Ks with very solid ratios, but small sample size and thus decent risk.  I think he's a bit of a polarizing pick but it really depends on what your staff looks like going into the hundreds in a draft.  If my SP floor is solid then I'm definitely down to take Musgrove and see if he can push me over the top.  On the other hand, if I've already incorporated a bit of risk in my staff then I may be more inclined to reach for a Greinke/McCullers/Morton.

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  • 2 weeks later...

A big part of his success was using his fastball less, new pitching coach in PIT with new philosophy.  He did well with it, but struggled a little with control which I would expect to improve with time.

What is the Padres approach to pitching and FB usage?  Will they let him stick with what worked?

Does the higher curveball and off-speed usage make him a higher injury risk?

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Very bullish on Musgrove this year. 

He made a delivery change that made his breaking stuff play up. And the new pirates regime actually gave him detailed scouting reports (assuming SDP as an analytically advanced team will do the same),

If he can be the guy he was after returning from his IL stint, that's an ace. An what encourages me is that he was pitching through a minor tricep issue and once he gave it rest, he came back and was absolutely unhittable.

BUY!!!

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On 2/1/2021 at 7:51 AM, BackyardBaseball said:

Just go look at his statcast page from last year...everything that matters(except bb%) was 80th percentile or better.  Across the board results like that aren’t found on many pages.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/joe-musgrove-605397?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Even more encouraging is that he has been an elite control-artist throughout his career. A lot of those walks came before his IL stint where he was pitching through tricep discomfort.

There's even more upside to what we saw last year as his walk rate normalizes and his sequencing gets better.

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  • 1 month later...
On 1/28/2021 at 10:52 PM, mehtavg2000 said:

He’s a talented starting pitcher that the Pirates traded away.  What’s not to love?

I agree.  I think his ADP is really underestimating the get-out-of-Pittsburgh effect.  Just look at the difference in Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow once they got out of Pittsburgh.  Obviously more run support outside of Pittsburgh helps your wins total, but the bigger effect is actually having someone competent that can teach you how to pitch and help you develop,   Musgrove sounds like a solid value at his 114 ADP.

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

I agree.  I think his ADP is really underestimating the get-out-of-Pittsburgh effect.  Just look at the difference in Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow once they got out of Pittsburgh.  Obviously more run support outside of Pittsburgh helps your wins total, but the bigger effect is actually having someone competent that can teach you how to pitch and help you develop,   Musgrove sounds like a solid value at his 114 ADP.

I was targeting him hard but missed out.  He’s in a great situation now.

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