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Jameson Taillon 2021 Outlook


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Taillon hasn't pitched in over a year rehabbing TJ. He lands with the Yankees and looks to be a starter. Anyone buying into the comeback?  Can he produce SP2 numbers or will be a middling Sp4/5?

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1 hour ago, octapuss said:

Taillon hasn't pitched in over a year rehabbing TJ. He lands with the Yankees and looks to be a starter. Anyone buying into the comeback?  Can he produce SP2 numbers or will be a middling Sp4/5?

 

Goes to one of the toughest situations in the MLB. Coming off a major injury. Even when healthy, the upside is not that impressive with low strikeout numbers.

ADP of 229 in NFBC seems appropriate given the situation. For this year the best case scenario would be middling SP3 numbers in limited innings pitched. Will likely be trying for higher upside picks at this point in the draft (Ohtani (P), E Rodriguez, Kluber, Pearson - all of which have lower ADP).

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19 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Goes to one of the toughest situations in the MLB. Coming off a major injury. Even when healthy, the upside is not that impressive with low strikeout numbers.

ADP of 229 in NFBC seems appropriate given the situation. For this year the best case scenario would be middling SP3 numbers in limited innings pitched. Will likely be trying for higher upside picks at this point in the draft (Ohtani (P), E Rodriguez, Kluber, Pearson - all of which have lower ADP).

I’m not sure about him either.  He was a very solid pitcher his last two years of “health”.  I wouldn’t call his strikeout rate low though...he’s an above average K Starter at 8.5/9.  That isn’t Cole territory by any means but better than most.  He puts out good ks, good WHIP, solid ERA.  If he can handle Yankee stadium he should rack up wins.  He’s a worthy gamble.  

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2 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Goes to one of the toughest situations in the MLB. Coming off a major injury. Even when healthy, the upside is not that impressive with low strikeout numbers.

ADP of 229 in NFBC seems appropriate given the situation. For this year the best case scenario would be middling SP3 numbers in limited innings pitched. Will likely be trying for higher upside picks at this point in the draft (Ohtani (P), E Rodriguez, Kluber, Pearson - all of which have lower ADP).

I doubt his innings will be limited at all.  He had already rehabbed and pitched off the mound and all that good stuff and was ready to pitch in September but given Pirates already out and adding in the covid situation with him being a cancer survivor they decided to play it safe.  If MLB has it's way -- Players Association is considering this proposal as of now -- and Opening Day is pushed back nearly a month he should have his vaccination and be super well rested and stronger than a horse.

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8 hours ago, Smacdaddy said:

I’m not sure about him either.  He was a very solid pitcher his last two years of “health”.  I wouldn’t call his strikeout rate low though...he’s an above average K Starter at 8.5/9.  That isn’t Cole territory by any means but better than most.  He puts out good ks, good WHIP, solid ERA.  If he can handle Yankee stadium he should rack up wins.  He’s a worthy gamble.  

In today's fantasy landscape, 8.5 K/9 is average at best, and more likely below average. That is his upside. In a rotisserie league, each start he will likely hurt your standing in the strikeout category. Last year, an 8.5 K/9 was the 35th best among starters. Going back to 2019, same thing, 35th best. If you are guaranteed a lot of innings and a good ERA, then that changes the equation, but both of those are very questionable, and his park factors got much worse. Also factor in his 8.5 K/9 was in the NL when there was no DH. So there's reason to believe that number regresses rather than improves.

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On 1/31/2021 at 10:09 AM, octapuss said:

Taillon hasn't pitched in over a year rehabbing TJ. He lands with the Yankees and looks to be a starter. Anyone buying into the comeback?  Can he produce SP2 numbers or will be a middling Sp4/5?

SP5 in Yankees stadium unfortunately.

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18 hours ago, cdd10 said:

SP5 in Yankees stadium unfortunately.

As a Red Sox fan I can tell you that when most players don the Yankee pinstripes they always seem to perform way better than predicted.  Taillon is one tough kid after all he has been through.  He will do really well in the spotlight in NY.

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 2/7/2021 at 9:20 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

As a Red Sox fan I can tell you that when most players don the Yankee pinstripes they always seem to perform way better than predicted.  Taillon is one tough kid after all he has been through.  He will do really well in the spotlight in NY.

I hope so as a dynasty owner!

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  • 2 weeks later...

The injury history, lack of innings due to them, moving to YS in the AL East are significant negatives. 

Pitching for what should be a 90+ win team with a power lineup, 50% GB rate, and good stuff are the positives.

He's a guy I'm interested in, but to me he's entirely an upside play and not a guy I'm drafting with expectations.  I don't think you can draft this guy and expect 150 innings of ______.  If everything goes right I could see a quality SP3.  I can also see a guy you waive at some point due to poor performance or injury.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Could he go 5 innings tomorrow?

I haven't been following closely, but saw quotes about slow playing and decreased velocity.

Edited by itaos
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35 minutes ago, itaos said:

Could he go 5 innings tomorrow?

I haven't been following closely, but saw quotes about slow playing and decreased velocity.

If he can't get through 5 innings against the Os he might as well move to the bullpen

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35 minutes ago, itaos said:

Could he go 5 innings tomorrow?

I haven't been following closely, but saw quotes about slow playing and decreased velocity.

I've been eyeing him as well, for tomorrow's start v balt.  any NYers hear anything about how long they plan to leave him in for his first start of the season? on a pitch count?

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 4/19/2021 at 2:03 AM, pierceNKC said:

Just shaking off the rust lately or what?

First start he was excellent just made one mistake late. His breaking balls looked really good. 2nd start the Jays got to him in their minor league bandbox.

Supposedly a two start pitcher this week (ATL, @CLE) . I'm rolling him out there despite the tough first matchup.

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34 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

First start he was excellent just made one mistake late. His breaking balls looked really good. 2nd start the Jays got to him in their minor league bandbox.

Supposedly a two start pitcher this week (ATL, @CLE) . I'm rolling him out there despite the tough first matchup.

Is it that tough a matchup? Acuna’s banged up and the rest of the lineup is barely hitting (yesterday’s first inning barrage aside).

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Looked good again. The stuff and control seems to be there, throwing 94-95mph and the curveball's looking really nice. 

15/2 K/BB so far is an excellent sign. I see good things ahead for Jameson, I think people forget how good he was in 2018, I know 3 years is a long time ago now but his stuff looks back to me so I think he could be a top 30 SP again. Bad park will increase his ERA but the Yankees know how to unlock extra K's so I can see a career high K rate easily.

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