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2021 Deep Sleepers (ADP 400+)


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Who are some of your deep sleepers (ADP of over 400)

Many of these are saves dart throws.  

ADP 400-500
 
Cal Quantrill
JR Crawford (SB)
Jonathan Hernandez - whispers of 100 innings
Myles Straw (SB)
Josh Fleming - in Rays rotation
Blake Treinen - Jansen backup
Peter Fairbanks - closer in playoffs
JB Wendelken, Tyler Duffey, Emilio Pagan - possible saves
Luis Patino - potential
Elvis Andrus - UT role
Steven Brault - trade bait
Rougned Odor - hate him but can't quit him
Brendan Rodgers 
Kohei Arihara
 
500-600
Miguel Andujar - trade bait and reportedly changed his swing.
Adrian Morejon- Padres rotation is injury prone
Kyle Wright - NLCS aside, looked good down the stretch
Michael Taylor - changed swing and royals like to run
Nolan Jones - moved to OF.  midseason call up
Bryse Wilson - see Wright, except looked good in NLCS
Anthony Alford - (SB)
 
600 +
Brent Rooker
Connor Brogdon
Jessie Hahn
Jeff Hoffman - out of coors hell
Luis Campusano - super last round dart throw.  listed as UT in some leagues
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Some of my early targets:

-Chad Pinder, looks to finally be in position for everyday ABs in OAK. 28 yrs old and despite sporadic PT, he has improved his strikeout rate each of the past four seasons, although he has not been rewarded by any batting average improvement. He also performed better against RH pitching last year, and he had the highest gain in max exit velocity from 2019 to 2020 in the majors, besting Teoscar Hernandez. Being possibly eligible at 2B/3B/SS/OF will be useful too. You def need to squint some, but I could see him being a guy that goes from relative obscurity to All-Star this year.

-Cole Tucker, another guy that should likely find everyday ABs...former 1st Rd pick (still only just turned 24) with some great SB numbers in the minors. He has not been able to hit in the bigs yet, but always could coming up the ladder. Came up as a SS, and sounds like the manager is looking to move him back there after playing OF exclusively last year. I get this call is more 'leap of faith' variety, but regular work could really benefit him and help make him relevant in deep formats.

-Wilmer Flores, might take a bit to garner full time ABs, but maybe not with Longo/Belt around and DH being possible. Guy can just flat hit, even though he gets type cast as a 'lefty masher'...was able to sock 12 HRs last season in under 200 ABs and did so by altering his launch angle up almost 4 degrees.

Still sorting through my pitchers, but one I am really liking is Trevor Rogers:

6.11 ERA wasn't pretty last year, but thanks to increased fastball velocity and an improved slider that helped lead to a 30.0 K%, things are really looking up for him. He used to sit 90-93 mph with his high-spin fourseamer, but it averaged 94 mph while touching 96 mph last season. Rogers' slider improved from below-average to average, and his changeup, which drops off the table, has all the traits of a future plus offering. The 6-foot-6 southpaw's 3.49 xERA and 3.67 xFIP portend better results with normal luck, but he can also improve skills wise. His 10.0 BB% was the highest mark of his career, which is understandable for a 22-year-old jumping over Triple-A completely.

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Using NFBC ADP:

425 - Adley Rutschman: Maybe a surprise 2 week call up. Deep benches you can hold.

427 - Ross Stripling: If Pearson is held back, Stripling should be in the rotation.

473 - Miguel Cabrera: Not much upside but did have mini power resurgence last year. Plays every day.

480 - Khris Davis: Power in a great lineup.

554 - Ian Desmond: 20+ HR and throws in some steals, with Arenado gone should open up playing time.

627 - Brandon Workman: Recent rumors between him and Red Sox, where he'd likely be the closer.

 

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1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

627 - Brandon Workman: Recent rumors between him and Red Sox, where he'd likely be the closer.

Sox talking to Workman to possibly re-sign him back as their closer.  Adam Ottavino IS signed and is in the mix as well as Barnes still around.  I don't think Brasier will be the closer.

About JR Crawford above.  Dylan Moore may be a better option for steals and better hitter period in Seattle's middle infield.  Mariners said they are giving him a shot to become the everyday 2B this spring and he has multiple position eligibilities from last tear.

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10 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Sox talking to Workman to possibly re-sign him back as their closer.  Adam Ottavino IS signed and is in the mix as well as Barnes still around.  I don't think Brasier will be the closer.

About JR Crawford above.  Dylan Moore may be a better option for steals and better hitter period in Seattle's middle infield.  Mariners said they are giving him a shot to become the everyday 2B this spring and he has multiple position eligibilities from last tear.

*year, not tear.  And yeah he is higher ranked BUT he is someone people in casual leagues may not know much about as yet.  He could slip a little through the cracks.

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Sox talking to Workman to possibly re-sign him back as their closer.  Adam Ottavino IS signed and is in the mix as well as Barnes still around.  I don't think Brasier will be the closer.

About JR Crawford above.  Dylan Moore may be a better option for steals and better hitter period in Seattle's middle infield.  Mariners said they are giving him a shot to become the everyday 2B this spring and he has multiple position eligibilities from last tear.

Moore is gong really early.  like pick 112.  that's too early for me and I like dylan moore

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quick hits. most of these guys will not be that relevant, but that's the call of the questions...for deep leagues and watching...

ronald guzman - dominican winter league mvp, might get traded or might otherwise beat out lowe/calhoun

chad pinder - opportunity with semien and others leaving, has flashed power before

rio ruiz - probably sucks but also has opportunity with baltimore having no other 3B coming up. has power and has had good streaks.

cj cron/renato nunez - see if they sign anywhere to get regular PT, power bats

jacoby jones - quietly good last year

michael lorenzen - strong mid 90s heat, sub 3 era in starts last year, will start this year, good ks and bbs too

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  • 1 month later...

Good time to bring this back around, given the ST samples, injuries and affects on early season PT, etc.

One real deep pitcher I am targeting is STL RP John Gant, he appears to have secured the #4 spot in the rotation.

He has always been just a solid pitcher, but seems to have made various gains in stuff in the last year or so.

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I already gave my deep saves sleepers in the closer thread so I won't choose any relievers, but my favorites with an NFBC ADP > 400 filtered over the last 2 weeks are:

Trevor Rogers (406) - he's getting a lot of hype on Twitter and I'm a believer. I think he puts together a solid year and becomes a top 30 SP in next year's drafts.

Robbie Grossman (439) - kind of a boring pick, but I think he flirts with a 20/20 season at the top of the Tigers order. Better in OBP leagues.

Chris Archer (481) - it's the only fitting end to the now infamous Pittsburgh/Tampa deal that Archer gets signed by Tampa and becomes a solid asset for them.

Anthony DeSclafani (498) - he's made changes to his slider and pitch mix and looks great this spring. He'll be pitching in front of a better defense in a more pitcher friendly park. He got a bunch of swings and misses against a Padres lineup full of regulars two nights ago.

Josh Rojas (510) - looks to have secured a full time job and a prime spot in the order for now and he's been crushing the ball this spring.

Austin Slater (576) - the man, the myth, the legend

Randy Dobnak (584) - looks to be in the bullpen to begin the season, but he should be first in line of one of the top 5 go down

Logan Webb (619) - always liked his potential, seems to be putting things together this spring

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On 2/2/2021 at 1:04 PM, Sidearmer said:

554 - Ian Desmond: 20+ HR and throws in some steals, with Arenado gone should open up playing time.

I know this was done almost two months ago, but Desmond opted-out for now...

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On 2/2/2021 at 10:53 AM, kidtwentytwo said:

Who are some of your deep sleepers (ADP of over 400)

Many of these are saves dart throws.  

ADP 400-500
 
Cal Quantrill
JR Crawford (SB)
Jonathan Hernandez - whispers of 100 innings
Myles Straw (SB)
Josh Fleming - in Rays rotation
Blake Treinen - Jansen backup
Peter Fairbanks - closer in playoffs
JB Wendelken, Tyler Duffey, Emilio Pagan - possible saves
Luis Patino - potential
Elvis Andrus - UT role
Steven Brault - trade bait
Rougned Odor - hate him but can't quit him
Brendan Rodgers 
Kohei Arihara
 
500-600
Miguel Andujar - trade bait and reportedly changed his swing.
Adrian Morejon- Padres rotation is injury prone
Kyle Wright - NLCS aside, looked good down the stretch
Michael Taylor - changed swing and royals like to run
Nolan Jones - moved to OF.  midseason call up
Bryse Wilson - see Wright, except looked good in NLCS
Anthony Alford - (SB)
 
600 +
Brent Rooker
Connor Brogdon
Jessie Hahn
Jeff Hoffman - out of coors hell
Luis Campusano - super last round dart throw.  listed as UT in some leagues

Been about two months ago.  many of these became my most owned players

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Chris Flexen looks to be locked into #3 spot in SEA rotation. Shout out to @fawkes_mulder Had a heck of a good start a day ago too.

2 other situations I am speculating on early are the #5 spot in HOU, which looks like Luis Garcia, who has some v interesting stuff.

Also #5 spot in KC, which could possibly be Carlos Hernandez (70+ grade FA and developing secondaries)...he could well surprise imo. 24 yr old who went straight from A ball competition (in 2019) to alt site last year to bigs late in year. Command is very much in progress but these are the deep dives that can pay off.

Edited by ST. STEVEN
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On 3/26/2021 at 11:58 AM, meh2 said:

I already gave my deep saves sleepers in the closer thread so I won't choose any relievers, but my favorites with an NFBC ADP > 400 filtered over the last 2 weeks are:

Trevor Rogers (406) - he's getting a lot of hype on Twitter and I'm a believer. I think he puts together a solid year and becomes a top 30 SP in next year's drafts.

Robbie Grossman (439) - kind of a boring pick, but I think he flirts with a 20/20 season at the top of the Tigers order. Better in OBP leagues.

Chris Archer (481) - it's the only fitting end to the now infamous Pittsburgh/Tampa deal that Archer gets signed by Tampa and becomes a solid asset for them.

Anthony DeSclafani (498) - he's made changes to his slider and pitch mix and looks great this spring. He'll be pitching in front of a better defense in a more pitcher friendly park. He got a bunch of swings and misses against a Padres lineup full of regulars two nights ago.

Josh Rojas (510) - looks to have secured a full time job and a prime spot in the order for now and he's been crushing the ball this spring.

Austin Slater (576) - the man, the myth, the legend

Randy Dobnak (584) - looks to be in the bullpen to begin the season, but he should be first in line of one of the top 5 go down

Logan Webb (619) - always liked his potential, seems to be putting things together this spring

As far as Rojas goes..have not seen where he will be starting at and where will he hit in the order?

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Logan Allen had a little prospect hype a couple years ago and looks to have secured a rotation spot in Cleveland. He lost a bunch of weight and has had a great spring. Might be someone to monitor. 

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4 hours ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

As far as Rojas goes..have not seen where he will be starting at and where will he hit in the order?

I'm expecting he will be hitting 5th - 6th and starting at 2B to start the year.

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I like kike Hernandez who looks to be leading off for Boston.

I like Brousseau in Tampa who seems to hit no matter the situation. He’s been tabbed a left specialist but still had a wrc+ over 100 vs rhp. Could play himself into more and more time.

I like arrieta as a dead cat bounce. That whole Cubs rotation is interesting. Even Trevor Williams and alzolay as deep plays. All are looking good in spring, new mechanics and/or life to pitches.

longoria in SF maybe not dead, good stat cast last year. Crowded IF though.

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On 3/27/2021 at 6:55 PM, ST. STEVEN said:

Also #5 spot in KC, which could possibly be Carlos Hernandez (70+ grade FA and developing secondaries)...he could well surprise imo. 24 yr old who went straight from A ball competition (in 2019) to alt site last year to bigs late in year. Command is very much in progress but these are the deep dives that can pay off.

Not sure he quite deserves a thread yet, but did not see him mentioned in the barrage of action from yesterday. It appears he did win the #5 spot, just they will not need an actual 5th starter until April 14th. He came in yesterday following the debacle called Brad Keller, went 3 innings allowed 3 hits and 2 runs but was able to pick up the W and had 5K...I saw 5 pitches of 100+ MPH and an absolutely filthy sinker out of him. Also tossed 12 curves that had nice shape/horizontal action and complement his velo spectrum very well at 82/83 mph. Gave up a total of 0 barrels. This guy is one to keep an eye on in deep leagues.

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Another arm to keep an eye on is Nick Neidert from MIA. Former 2nd Rd pick of SEA (came over in Dee Gordon trade)...he has been mostly strong in minors, but largely ignored because even being young for his leagues, he was seen as more command over stuff. Seems like the stuff started to tick up at alt camp last summer, as well as this spring. He 'lost out' on his bid to get the #5 spot on the MIA staff, but that was to Trevor Rogers--who was simply unreal this ST. Neidert still went 2.84 ERA/1.11 WHIP and 15 strikeouts in his 12.2 Grapefruit League innings...now it appears that Sixto is looking at an extended absence, as well as E Hernandez who left injured last night. This is a guy to speculate on in deep/points leagues and def dynasty, MIA has had a tendency to get the most out of their arms lately, and it is obv a great home park to pitch in. 24 yrs old and eligible at RP right now.

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It is nothing more than speculation that Tatis might be out an extended period of time...most will pivot to Kim, but another possible option in -Tucupita Marcano- exists.

Just 21 yrs old, he went out and had a heck of a ST for Pads, basically forcing his way onto the team by batting .405 with a 1.098 OPS during Cactus League play.

Odd for a still very much developing prospect--and one that ranks anywhere from 5th-8th overall in a very stout Padres system.

Some snippets from pipeline:

Marcano batted .366/.450/.438 at the lower levels in his first full season, while striking out 16 times and walking 30. At Class A Fort Wayne in 2019, he continued to hit. Marcano is a slender and wiry middle-infield type, who still needs to fill out his 6-foot frame. As he does, the Padres are seeing him grow into a bit of pop. But his contact skills are the defining characteristic. Marcano's short left-handed stroke produces line drives all over the field. At times, his hand-eye coordination is almost too good, and he’d be better served being more selective within the strike zone, swinging at pitches he can do damage with. Still, Marcano can differentiate balls from strikes as well as anyone, and he complements his excellent plate approach with above-average speed.

Defensively, the Padres are convinced Marcano can remain at shortstop, and he's got the quick hands necessary to be a solid defender. His arm projects as merely average, and that could force a move to second base. But if his plate skills carry to the upper levels, Marcano could develop into a serious on-base threat as a bat-first middle infielder.

SD obv has options here, but I like Tucu as a deep dynasty grab with the possibility to pay dividends soon.

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I feel weird posting this guy everywhere (started his outlook thread) but I feel he needs a BIT more hype train drum for deep leagues. Phil Evans has started every game in pit, was hot in spring and hot in 2020 pre-injury. 

He has homered in back to back games and is hitting cleanup today. He seems to be the primary backup at the CI (playing with kebryan out), but has now started 2 straight games at corner outfield (where polanco and reynolds aren't the strongest contributors). Point being, he has a clear path to 400 ABs, in which steamer and zips seem to favor his pop in the 12-15 HR range. That's useful in the range of ADPs we are talking about (like my 12 team 25 man roster NL only). Unlike some other names on this thread though, he's more a "floor" sleeper than a ceiling sleeper. 

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21 minutes ago, cyberer said:

I feel weird posting this guy everywhere (started his outlook thread) but I feel he needs a BIT more hype train drum for deep leagues. Phil Evans has started every game in pit, was hot in spring and hot in 2020 pre-injury. 

He has homered in back to back games and is hitting cleanup today. He seems to be the primary backup at the CI (playing with kebryan out), but has now started 2 straight games at corner outfield (where polanco and reynolds aren't the strongest contributors). Point being, he has a clear path to 400 ABs, in which steamer and zips seem to favor his pop in the 12-15 HR range. That's useful in the range of ADPs we are talking about (like my 12 team 25 man roster NL only). Unlike some other names on this thread though, he's more a "floor" sleeper than a ceiling sleeper. 

It's kind of hard to say what his floor and ceiling are. He's pretty interesting and if he hits, the playing time will be there. Certainly should have been added in deep leagues by now.

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

It's kind of hard to say what his floor and ceiling are. He's pretty interesting and if he hits, the playing time will be there. Certainly should have been added in deep leagues by now.

Agreed. He's pretty much an enigma. I found a fangraphs mets prospects article that mentions him in 2012 (not exactly glowing):

12. Phillip Evans, 2B/SS: Evans had a chance to go in the first three rounds of the 2011 draft but he slid all the way to the 15th rounds. The Mets got him under contract with a $650,000 bonus. He falls into the “scrappy infielder” category and may top out as a big league utility player. Evans doesn’t have much speed or power, but he could hit for a respectable average and could become an above-average defender at second base, his eventual destination due to a lack of range at shortstop.

 

Looks like his power came on in 2018 in the minors and may have stuck around. 

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11 minutes ago, cyberer said:

Agreed. He's pretty much an enigma. I found a fangraphs mets prospects article that mentions him in 2012 (not exactly glowing):

12. Phillip Evans, 2B/SS: Evans had a chance to go in the first three rounds of the 2011 draft but he slid all the way to the 15th rounds. The Mets got him under contract with a $650,000 bonus. He falls into the “scrappy infielder” category and may top out as a big league utility player. Evans doesn’t have much speed or power, but he could hit for a respectable average and could become an above-average defender at second base, his eventual destination due to a lack of range at shortstop.

 

Looks like his power came on in 2018 in the minors and may have stuck around. 

In theory, with a broken 2020, we should see a lot more guys breaking out this year than in most years, because we missed what should have been some breakouts last year.

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