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Tommy Edman 2021 Outlook


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I have always liked having a few versatile guys. My money league has Edman eligible at 2B, SS, 3B, and OF. My concern is his playing time. I've read some stuff suggesting he won't be starting full time this season. Obviously, adding Arenado cuts into the at-bats available, though maybe Edman slides in for Wong at second base.

Thoughts?

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Just now, Words said:

I have always liked having a few versatile guys. My money league has Edman eligible at 2B, SS, 3B, and OF. My concern is his playing time. I've read some stuff suggesting he won't be starting full time this season. Obviously, adding Arenado cuts into the at-bats available, though maybe Edman slides in for Wong at second base.

Thoughts?

I think he has a good chance to be the everyday 2B. I like his game a lot, and his multiple position eligibility is a game changer.

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53 minutes ago, Words said:

I have always liked having a few versatile guys. My money league has Edman eligible at 2B, SS, 3B, and OF. My concern is his playing time. I've read some stuff suggesting he won't be starting full time this season. Obviously, adding Arenado cuts into the at-bats available, though maybe Edman slides in for Wong at second base.

Thoughts?

Edman's versatility is a boon and he offers a nice amount of speed, coupled with a bit of power.  Had a rough year in '20 but his xBA was higher than his actual BA indicating a bit of bad luck.  His sprint speed is elite and I think if everything clicks he can give you a 15/20 season.  He's penciled into the leadoff spot and has some big bats behind him so I can see him topping 90 R with everyday playing time.  He doesn't walk a ton so his R and SB is capped unless he hits .300 again which I think is a long shot.  He's going at ADP 130 between MI options Moose and Villar.  The upside isn't huge but at that ADP I think there is definitely room for profit, especially for a guy that can fit almost anywhere on your roster.

 

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The shortstop eligibility is particularly enticing in my league. That's what sent me looking for info on his prospects for playing time. I am seeing lineup projections with him at 2B and batting first or second. 

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He should be locked into an every day role batting atop an elite lineup.

He really needs to run again to have value. He barely ran last season. So while he provides nice flexibility, he could be a drain on most categories. I probably will be avoiding this year, although I'd be open to him at a slight discount.

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I don't get the love for the guy.  2019 looks like a power outlier and SBs in his range aren't predictable.  Not sure how much he's going to steal in front of Goldy and Arenado.  Definitely 100 run upside but he could very well go 10-10.  He's Joey Wendle with a better lineup spot.

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18 minutes ago, Magoo said:

I don't get the love for the guy.  2019 looks like a power outlier and SBs in his range aren't predictable.  Not sure how much he's going to steal in front of Goldy and Arenado.  Definitely 100 run upside but he could very well go 10-10.  He's Joey Wendle with a better lineup spot.

You guys make a good point about him possibly not running as the Cards were 27th in the league in SB last year.  This would take a huge bite out of his value.  He does have a few pluses going for him in that regard, those being his success in the minors along with a high success rate and his elite sprint speed, ranking in the top 5% in the league in both '19 and '20.  

I can't say for sure if he will run or not.  You guys have definitely given me pause as I look at some of the other speedsters that can be had later.  The idea of 90+ runs from your MI is intriguing, but as stated in my previous post the runs could be capped due to his less than stellar K/BB rate.        

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I was onto Edman early as he was coming up through the Cards system, always felt like he was a guy that could outperform expectations--and he certainly did early on...then last year showed some holes in his game (truncated/odd season or not). His strike out rate shot up and the batted ball profile was not pretty--exit velo and barrel rates were both in the bottom 15% of the league. No doubt he has wheels, just not sure how much he will run with this team, esp being a table setter at the top of the order. I like the player, just don't see much value with where he is likely to be drafted.

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One other thing to keep in mind with Edman is that the Cardinals’ schedule was relentless last year with tons of doubleheaders and few days off, sparked by their 2-week COVID shutdown. Being young, they ran Edman out there game-in, game-out, harder than anyone. I don’t know if fatigue may have played a role in his performance dip, but it’s possible.

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4 hours ago, damana said:

You guys make a good point about him possibly not running as the Cards were 27th in the league in SB last year.  This would take a huge bite out of his value.  He does have a few pluses going for him in that regard, those being his success in the minors along with a high success rate and his elite sprint speed, ranking in the top 5% in the league in both '19 and '20.  

I can't say for sure if he will run or not.  You guys have definitely given me pause as I look at some of the other speedsters that can be had later.  The idea of 90+ runs from your MI is intriguing, but as stated in my previous post the runs could be capped due to his less than stellar K/BB rate.        

Look at his SB success rate in 2019 and tell me that’s not a crazy outlier. Meh SBA too.

Him and Joey Wendle have virtually the same skills yet Wendle is going 150+ picks later.* So you’re paying for a perceived better run production and ABs: Both predicated on a secure lineup spot AND lead off position.

*Caveat that the current high draft price is based on DCs which have no FAAB so multi-position guys get a big bump. Having said that, Wendle has nearly that same multi-position bump so that point stands relative to each other.

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13 minutes ago, Caelum said:

One other thing to keep in mind with Edman is that the Cardinals’ schedule was relentless last year with tons of doubleheaders and few days off, sparked by their 2-week COVID shutdown. Being young, they ran Edman out there game-in, game-out, harder than anyone. I don’t know if fatigue may have played a role in his performance dip, but it’s possible.

Agreed one could argue that whole team gets a pass to an extent. But he’s a young guy and didn’t get COVID so he has less of an excuse. 

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1 minute ago, KingJoffrey said:

He's silenced all critics of his running skills having picked up his 2nd SB today.  Looking comfortable at the top of a (perhaps surprisingly) potent batting order.

based on raw speed score this guy should steal 30+ given the opportunity. He's now leading off (i.e. opportunity). According to a news article I read today he's reached base in every game so far. Time to enjoy the ride. 

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I'm glad Sporer was hyping him up so much this offseason as a 'discount Albies'. Made sure to target him heavily. Good way to get a piece of that STL lineup, and the playing time concerns are gone this year. He's definitely capable of getting to the 20/20 echelon with an .800+ OPS

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