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Los Angeles Dodgers 2021 Outlook


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2021 Projected Payroll of $244M

SP - Kershaw, Bauer, Buehler are set.  Price is #4 assuming he doesn't opt out again.  Assume Urias is #5 to start the season.  Gonsolin and May at #6 and #7.  That is amazing depth.

RP - Jansen, Treinen, lead a solid bullpen

C - Will Smith with Barnes as backup.  Ruiz in minors

1B - Muncy with Bellinger able to back him up there

2B - Taylor, but could also be Lux depending how he looks in spring.  Would Dodgers want to use Taylor as super utility?

SS - Seager 

3B - Rios or FA

With Bauer signing and payroll, assume they are out on Turner.  Any other pieces they might still bring in?

Looking like favorites to repeat again with that lineup and SP depth.

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33 minutes ago, OaksterDan said:

Buncha no-names at OF I guess

Bellinger, Betts, Pollock, Taylor...Lux at 2b. I still think they sign Turner to a two year deal with some  kind of option for a 3rd year from both sides.

Edited by FantasyGeek2018
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Dodgers have become bad for baseball. Anyone saying that's not the case, is obviously a Dodger fan. And to be fair, I don't blame Dodger fans. It's really easy to be a Dodgers fan. 

With the Dodgers latest transaction with Trevor Bauer, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion now that the MLB is going to have to vote to start utilizing a salary cap moving forward.

When you've got multiple teams, whose payrolls are under $40M, and then you look and see teams like the Dodgers and the Yankees, teams that can't seem to win a championship without having to "buy a championship" by constantly trading and signing for big-name stars, it's a problem.

The competitive balance of this league has become horrible. ESPN actually said it best last night...It's gotten so bad, that if you're watching a 3-game series between some teams, there's teams now that you just expect they're going to lose 0-3.

The Dodgers couldn't get over the hump for years and years, (decades), and what did they do? Bought their championship by trading for Mookie Betts. Now they go out and sign arguably the best pitcher, or at least Top-3 best pitchers in the league.

The Dodgers and the Lakers are pretty much one in the same. Gotta "bring someone in" in order to win. If something isn't even remotely perfect, "we gotta trade for someone". 

LAD honestly have no excuses to lose this year. This team is so incredibly stacked, it shouldn't even be close. I'd venture half their team could get injured, and they would still have a better roster than 1/2 the teams in the league.

Betts, Bellinger, Seager, Pollock, Lux, Taylor, Smith, Muncy, and possibly Turner..Followed now with Bauer, Beuhler, Kershaw, Urias, Price, Knebel, Kahnle, Graterol.

If the Dodgers have succeeded at anything this year, it's becoming "the most hated team in baseball".

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Having that mega team to hate is always good for sports.

The baseball welfare teams are a problem though. When you take in more money in luxury tax payouts than you put out in the product, time for new ownership.

Edited by colorado2013
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The crazy part is this team could be even better than they are on paper.

Will Smith could very well become the #1 C in 2021. Lux is still a future star. Urias, Gonsolin, and May have only scratched the surface of their potential

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How is wanting to put out a winning product bad for baseball?  I agree with colorado2013 that teams collecting money from other teams and then putting out a laughable on the field product is much more of a problem.  If you put a product on the field that wins and people want to see, you will make money in baseball.  Even if you don't put out a winner you're probably still making gobs of money.  I think its good for the fans and owners when you bring in a player that can help you win championships. 

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I’d say this team has a shot to set the record for wins in a season, but the Dodgers rest their stars so often and coddle their starting pitchers so much with short outings and phantom IL stints that they probably won’t get too close. Maybe Walker Buehler will be built up to handle 5 innings by the All Star break.

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4 hours ago, CORTEz said:

Dodgers have become bad for baseball. Anyone saying that's not the case, is obviously a Dodger fan. And to be fair, I don't blame Dodger fans. It's really easy to be a Dodgers fan. 

With the Dodgers latest transaction with Trevor Bauer, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion now that the MLB is going to have to vote to start utilizing a salary cap moving forward.

When you've got multiple teams, whose payrolls are under $40M, and then you look and see teams like the Dodgers and the Yankees, teams that can't seem to win a championship without having to "buy a championship" by constantly trading and signing for big-name stars, it's a problem.

The competitive balance of this league has become horrible. ESPN actually said it best last night...It's gotten so bad, that if you're watching a 3-game series between some teams, there's teams now that you just expect they're going to lose 0-3.

The Dodgers couldn't get over the hump for years and years, (decades), and what did they do? Bought their championship by trading for Mookie Betts. Now they go out and sign arguably the best pitcher, or at least Top-3 best pitchers in the league.

The Dodgers and the Lakers are pretty much one in the same. Gotta "bring someone in" in order to win. If something isn't even remotely perfect, "we gotta trade for someone". 

LAD honestly have no excuses to lose this year. This team is so incredibly stacked, it shouldn't even be close. I'd venture half their team could get injured, and they would still have a better roster than 1/2 the teams in the league.

Betts, Bellinger, Seager, Pollock, Lux, Taylor, Smith, Muncy, and possibly Turner..Followed now with Bauer, Beuhler, Kershaw, Urias, Price, Knebel, Kahnle, Graterol.

If the Dodgers have succeeded at anything this year, it's becoming "the most hated team in baseball".

Why not implement a salary floor so that all the slapdick teams dragging everything down might put a competitive team on the field?

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There should be both a floor and a cap, but the floor is absolutely the higher priority. As a baseball fan, I'm far more troubled by what the Pirates are doing than I am by what the Dodgers are doing. As a fantasy baseball player, I'm more annoyed with the Dodgers because they just pushed May out of their rotation!

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19 hours ago, CORTEz said:

Dodgers have become bad for baseball. Anyone saying that's not the case, is obviously a Dodger fan. And to be fair, I don't blame Dodger fans. It's really easy to be a Dodgers fan. 

With the Dodgers latest transaction with Trevor Bauer, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion now that the MLB is going to have to vote to start utilizing a salary cap moving forward.

When you've got multiple teams, whose payrolls are under $40M, and then you look and see teams like the Dodgers and the Yankees, teams that can't seem to win a championship without having to "buy a championship" by constantly trading and signing for big-name stars, it's a problem.

The competitive balance of this league has become horrible. ESPN actually said it best last night...It's gotten so bad, that if you're watching a 3-game series between some teams, there's teams now that you just expect they're going to lose 0-3.

The Dodgers couldn't get over the hump for years and years, (decades), and what did they do? Bought their championship by trading for Mookie Betts. Now they go out and sign arguably the best pitcher, or at least Top-3 best pitchers in the league.

The Dodgers and the Lakers are pretty much one in the same. Gotta "bring someone in" in order to win. If something isn't even remotely perfect, "we gotta trade for someone". 

LAD honestly have no excuses to lose this year. This team is so incredibly stacked, it shouldn't even be close. I'd venture half their team could get injured, and they would still have a better roster than 1/2 the teams in the league.

Betts, Bellinger, Seager, Pollock, Lux, Taylor, Smith, Muncy, and possibly Turner..Followed now with Bauer, Beuhler, Kershaw, Urias, Price, Knebel, Kahnle, Graterol.

If the Dodgers have succeeded at anything this year, it's becoming "the most hated team in baseball".

Lol.....  I’m a Giants, I despise the Dodgers, and you’re a fool!  Welcome to America!

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34 minutes ago, OaksterDan said:

The teams under $40 million total payroll are the problem, not the Dodgers.  Best thing for baseball is teams trying to win.  

Maybe it's time to qualify for the top division like in the Premier League over in Europe.  Put the best teams in one division.  

Some baseball teams just don't care about competing.  

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On 2/6/2021 at 5:11 PM, SnellMyFinger said:

Why not implement a salary floor so that all the slapdick teams dragging everything down might put a competitive team on the field?

 

Baseball needs both a cap and a floor.  If only one or the other though, a cap is more fair and makes more sense because some teams just have the ability to spend more than others. By only implementing a floor, you're still allowing the richer teams to spend as much as they want while other teams may not be able to match that.

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2 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

Baseball needs both a cap and a floor.  If only one or the other though, a cap is more fair and makes more sense because some teams just have the ability to spend more than others. By only implementing a floor, you're still allowing the richer teams to spend as much as they want while other teams may not be able to match that.

I disagree with this.  The Rays (one of the more frugal teams in MLB) are worth over a billion dollars.  They consistently pull in revenue between 150-200 million a year.  The current ownership group bought the team for 200 million back in 2005 I believe.  They have made a handsome profit on their investment.  Stuart Sternburg, the primary shareholder is worth 800 million alone.  Crying poor in MLB is a farce, and if the Rays wanted to they could have signed some pretty good free agents.  Instead they go bargain hunting for names like Michael Wacha and Chris Archer, All the time collecting revenue from teams like the Yankees and Dodgers.  If anything was to be implemented a Floor makes a ton more sense to me just because it's not the teams spending money that are hurting MLB; it's the teams that are perpetually rebuilding and refuse to spend money when it's their window to win.

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3 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

Baseball needs both a cap and a floor.  If only one or the other though, a cap is more fair and makes more sense because some teams just have the ability to spend more than others. By only implementing a floor, you're still allowing the richer teams to spend as much as they want while other teams may not be able to match that.

 

Currently only 1 team is above the Luxury tax (the dodgers).  in 2019/2020 there were 3 teams each year in the luxury tax (the Dodgers weren't one of those teams in either years).

 

I'd probably argue the cap is fine and the floor needs to be raised significantly. 

 

I also think if they reversed the draft order for the non playoff teams it would get more competitive. Suck and dont have a high first round pick? Maybe you start signing players to get better.

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Absolutely needs a floor.

The problem isn't the top spenders like the Dodgers, the problem is the low spenders like the Pirates/Rays/Indians. Absolutely no reason they should have a 40mil payroll. Floor should be set at 100 mil, or 80 mill if I'm being generous.

Cap? Really doesn't matter. There's already a Luxury tax acting as a soft cap. It's a good thing if teams want to spend to try to win, that's healthy. 

 

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2 hours ago, damana said:

I disagree with this.  The Rays (one of the more frugal teams in MLB) are worth over a billion dollars.  They consistently pull in revenue between 150-200 million a year.  The current ownership group bought the team for 200 million back in 2005 I believe.  They have made a handsome profit on their investment.  Stuart Sternburg, the primary shareholder is worth 800 million alone.  Crying poor in MLB is a farce, and if the Rays wanted to they could have signed some pretty good free agents.  Instead they go bargain hunting for names like Michael Wacha and Chris Archer, All the time collecting revenue from teams like the Yankees and Dodgers.  If anything was to be implemented a Floor makes a ton more sense to me just because it's not the teams spending money that are hurting MLB; it's the teams that are perpetually rebuilding and refuse to spend money when it's their window to win.

The Rays bring in 200m a year according to you, the Dodges make 450m a year just off their TV contract. A month ago either the Rays or Marlins along with the Brewers didn't even have a television contract for the 2021 season. If they do now I  don't know.

 

The Dodgers are very good at running the luxury tax game. Also to support the huge salaries they have had the good fortune (or smarts/skill) in having a good farm system that has 0produced good players to be brought up. So you have a two edged sword in s farm system that produces giving a chance to sign FA that other teams can't afford. The Dodgers have also either traded or just let walk players that would end up costing them money (Ryu, Maeda, Pederson) as the farm system produced players to fill the gaps create. Turner seems gone this year unless he comes back at a reduced rate.

 

It will be interesting to see how long the Padres will continue to spend resources, both in capital and farm system players, the next couple of years if they don't close the gap between the Dodger results and their own

 

 

 

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It is clear that the Dodgers have a better revenue stream than most teams in baseball but the point is they use it to put a winning product on the field, which is the way it should be.  The Rays have the revenue to sign free agents they just choose to pick reclamation projects and mediocre players to fill their free agent needs.  Every off season there's talk of them landing a big bat.  They never do. 

You state the Dodgers TV contract.  Well IMO that's a result of supply and demand.  People in that region want to watch the Dodgers.  As a south Florida resident I can tell you that very few people care about the Marlins.  It's a shame but the Marlins have proven time and again that they would rather break their fans hearts than put a winning product on the field for any period of time.  And Miami is definitely not a small market.  The Rays do have a TV contract that pulls in about 100 million a year.  The Rays payroll for this year is 38 million dollars.  They just went to the World Series, Spend some freaking money to get back there.  Anyone who says they can't afford it is being naive.      

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Miami has a population of 478,000 compared to Los Angeles at app. 4 million. Or for every person in Miami there is 8 people in Los Angeles. Of those 478,000 people how many were transplants and still follow the Yankees or the Red Sox? I live in MN and this year I have become wheelchair bound which I have found does not work well in snow and ice. By next winter I hope to move to Arizona but I will remain a Twins fan. 

No they aren't using the economic might to spend wantingly. Freidman was trained in Tampa Bay and built the Dodger model on careful spending and a strong farm system. The Dodgers rarely go over the luxury tax thus no penalties and giving them the advantage of being able to afford to keep adding players. They are good at the luxury tax game. When they have a FA, who isn't a Kershaw, they either trade him or just let him walk.

Of that 100million how much is earmarked for other expenses besides player salaries? What is the revenue stream not counting media rights?  

Last year going to the WS wasn't the economic boon that a ML club can usually expect. Covid really took care of that with games being played at a neutral site. Some of my better baseball memories are of being at the game when the Twins beat the Braves in the WS. The next year I was a rabid fan.

But overall I feel that baseball has enough problems the way things are. I also feel there won't be a 2022 season as both sides don't trust each other. Sad but both sides are going to kill baseball in my opinion

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14 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Currently only 1 team is above the Luxury tax (the dodgers).  in 2019/2020 there were 3 teams each year in the luxury tax (the Dodgers weren't one of those teams in either years).

 

I'd probably argue the cap is fine and the floor needs to be raised significantly. 

 

I also think if they reversed the draft order for the non playoff teams it would get more competitive. Suck and dont have a high first round pick? Maybe you start signing players to get better.

I don’t like that idea. You’re furthering parity with that by punishing teams that are trying but failing.

I think a cap and floor is the best way to go. Let’s say the Dodgers have more money to spend than Cleveland. Why should they be allowed to? Shouldn’t there be a level playing field?

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11 hours ago, Low and Away said:

Miami has a population of 478,000 compared to Los Angeles at app. 4 million. Or for every person in Miami there is 8 people in Los Angeles. Of those 478,000 people how many were transplants and still follow the Yankees or the Red Sox? I live in MN and this year I have become wheelchair bound which I have found does not work well in snow and ice. By next winter I hope to move to Arizona but I will remain a Twins fan. 

No they aren't using the economic might to spend wantingly. Freidman was trained in Tampa Bay and built the Dodger model on careful spending and a strong farm system. The Dodgers rarely go over the luxury tax thus no penalties and giving them the advantage of being able to afford to keep adding players. They are good at the luxury tax game. When they have a FA, who isn't a Kershaw, they either trade him or just let him walk.

Of that 100million how much is earmarked for other expenses besides player salaries? What is the revenue stream not counting media rights?  

Last year going to the WS wasn't the economic boon that a ML club can usually expect. Covid really took care of that with games being played at a neutral site. Some of my better baseball memories are of being at the game when the Twins beat the Braves in the WS. The next year I was a rabid fan.

But overall I feel that baseball has enough problems the way things are. I also feel there won't be a 2022 season as both sides don't trust each other. Sad but both sides are going to kill baseball in my opinion

I think those population numbers are a bit misleading as Dade county has 2.7 million people and Broward the adjacent county has another 2 million.  And yes LA county has a about twice as many people.  It is a larger market but the Marlins market is by no means small.  I have seen first hand that when the Marlins have a winning product on the field people here will support them.  The Marlins have traded away stars for peanuts and dismantled World Series teams too many times.  

I agree with you whole-heartedly about the Dodgers being good at playing the game.  I personally see no problem with that.  As for the Rays revenue stream I found that in 2018 their total payroll was 89.9 million.  Their total revenue for that year was 242 million.  Since then the Rays player payroll has decreased. 

No situation is going to be the perfect for every team and I agree that baseball has its share of problems.  But do you think that putting a hard cap on spending is really going to solve anything?  How is putting more money in the owners pocket instead of back into the game good for baseball?    

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I think a HARD ceiling cap with no loopholes would work.  No weak luxury tax ceiling where you can re-set it after going below if for one year and start over with the mega-spending for several years until it needs re-setting again.  Just a hard ceiling period without deferred payments and shuffling stuff around by lawyers and, like I said, a million loopholes.  Adjusted higher for everyone only with agreement of MLB owners and Players Association.  It will never happen since the players would go ballistic but it would be interesting to see what teams could do on a semi-level playing field. 

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