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Jesse Winker 2021 Outlook


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Power breakout last year, as well as a 9.5% increase in K% but also a 5.4% increase in BB%. Contact rate plummeted to an uncharacteristic 74.4% from his typical 84ish%. Looks like he sold out for some power and could could also be chalked up to SSS. The big question is do the Reds platoon him? He has a career BA under .200 against lefties, but didn't hit them too porrly last year, still putting up a 140+ WRC (albeit in 41 PA). I wouldn't imagine they platoon him but they do seem to have 4 OFs for 3 spots with Castellanos, Senzel and Akiyama as the other 3. Aquino could even be tossed in as well. Has anyone heard anything about platooning Winker? If he locks down a starting spot, this could be the year he finally puts it all together.

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Jesse Winker 2021 Outlook
3 hours ago, Csiebert5 said:

Power breakout last year, as well as a 9.5% increase in K% but also a 5.4% increase in BB%. Contact rate plummeted to an uncharacteristic 74.4% from his typical 84ish%. Looks like he sold out for some power and could could also be chalked up to SSS. The big question is do the Reds platoon him? He has a career BA under .200 against lefties, but didn't hit them too porrly last year, still putting up a 140+ WRC (albeit in 41 PA). I wouldn't imagine they platoon him but they do seem to have 4 OFs for 3 spots with Castellanos, Senzel and Akiyama as the other 3. Aquino could even be tossed in as well. Has anyone heard anything about platooning Winker? If he locks down a starting spot, this could be the year he finally puts it all together.

 

Maybe not a strict platoon but he will definitely see the bench more than an every day starter, especially against LHP.

Small sample size is definitely an issue when evaluating him, even more so than most players because his numbers almost all came within a 2-3 week stretch during the truncated season. An ultra hot stretch like that sticks out a lot more when you are playing only 6 more weeks of games versus 20 more weeks.

If the power breakout is real, and he has in fact sacrificed some contact for power while also maintaining an elite walk percentage, he could be a 30 HR .380+ OBP monster that will erase any playing time concerns early on.

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  • 4 weeks later...

It sounds like the team clearly has Shogo as the 4th of after he didn't impress last year. Senzel is the clear CF now. I was surprised at his splits against lhp. I know it was only 41 ABs, but going from OPS in the 300-600s to 890 is a significant jump. 

All projection systems have him in like the low 400s for ABs. Is that really going to happen? Why wouldn't the reds give him a chance to start nearly every day? 

Other they do that, he could easily get to 30hr. 

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59 minutes ago, mtblock said:

It sounds like the team clearly has Shogo as the 4th of after he didn't impress last year. Senzel is the clear CF now. I was surprised at his splits against lhp. I know it was only 41 ABs, but going from OPS in the 300-600s to 890 is a significant jump. 

All projection systems have him in like the low 400s for ABs. Is that really going to happen? Why wouldn't the reds give him a chance to start nearly every day? 

Other they do that, he could easily get to 30hr. 

Projection probably has something to do with him not ever reaching 400 ABs in his career. The only projection (on Fangraphs) that has him for less than 450 is ZIPs. All other systems have him for 470+. He's not a symbol of health and has always sucked vs lefties so I would argue projection systems are being optimistic. He definitely has to prove more to warrant better projections. 

Note: I'm personally high on Winker, especially after how good he hit lefties last season. 

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I question if his power his sustainable, or if it was due to two outbursts in August. From August 9-29, he hit 10 of his 12 HRs. Maybe he'll be just be a streaky guy when it comes to HRs, but it just causes me to be skeptical. 

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6 hours ago, ty5592 said:

18 game hot streak

21/52 - .404, 10 hr, 16 rbi, 15 r

ROS

17/97 - .175, 2 hr, 7 rbi, 12 r

Don’t see myself owning any shares of him 

You can cherry pick these ho streaks for a majority of players.

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46 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

You can cherry pick these ho streaks for a majority of players.

I wouldn't mind a ho streak myself, as well, especially after this long Covid19 lockdown. 

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

I wouldn't mind a ho streak myself, as well, especially after this long Covid19 lockdown. 

Great way to pad stolen bases....

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hit leadoff against a lefty again today (Gore). Not sure if this is likely to carry over to the regular season or if the PT will be inconsistent again, but if he's hitting leadoff everyday he could be a great value. 

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On 3/13/2021 at 2:45 PM, jmcampbe11 said:

I'm done with Winker in shallow leagues. I don't think he's ever going to hit or play enough to be an asset. 

He's obviously much better in OBP, but he has amazing player discipline. Probably a boring player in shallow standard though, I get it.

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Somehow this dude has a career .280/.380/.480 line in 1038 MLB ABs...last year he also set career highs in exit velocity, raised his launch angle, and increased his ISO by a good margin. Yes his K's went up, but it's possible he's sacrificing AVG for more fly balls aka homers. i'm not really sure how he'd be stuck in a platoon unless his defense is god awful...seems like a perfect leadoff candidate. More of a OPS or OBP league play, but i think he's flying a bit under the radar to be honest. I wouldnt be surprised to see .270/.370/.500 with 25ish homers out of the leadoff spot.  

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1 hour ago, disasterisk said:

what platform are you using? It has been known for a few days now that he is sick. 

yeah but with what? I'm looking for the illness. I thought he would be back Monday but yet here we are

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10 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

yeah but with what? I'm looking for the illness. I thought he would be back Monday but yet here we are

Probably just a cold or food poisoning.

It feels magnified cause we're still in the first few weeks of the year.  If Winker was missing games for a random illness during Spring Training or winter ball in the Dominican Republic you wouldn't even be concerned.  

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On 3/13/2021 at 5:41 PM, Sidearmer said:

You can cherry pick these ho streaks for a majority of players.

There's some truth to that. But there's also a question of how to address that for 2020 stats. In a normal season, one hot streak will get diluted over the course of a season. But in 2020, it can dominate the stats. The question is whether Winker really made a leap forward or simply had a well timed streak.

It's hard to put much stock in 2020, as it's like taking the league leaders at the end of May in a "normal" season and assuming it would have been the same names in October.

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Jesse Winker was removed from Friday's game against the Diamondbacks due to calf cramps.

Winker had been absent from the Reds' lineup for nearly a week due to illness, and was lifted for a pinch-hitter in the sixth inning of his return after experiencing calf cramps. It's unclear exactly when the injury occurred, but he may have sustained the injury while scoring on a sacrifice fly in the fifth inning. It doesn't sound like a serious issue, but it wouldn't be surprising if he's given a few days off as a precautionary measure, especially this early in the season.

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