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Mike Evans 2021 Outlook


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What the heck do we make of Evans? I honestly feel like you could argue anything from WR1 to WR3. He's as likely as any WR to lead the league in TDs (other than maybe Adams), but he could go 1/20 in any given week. The team should be largely the same, so I feel like there should be more clarity here... but it looks muddy to me. 

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14 hours ago, ajs723 said:

What the heck do we make of Evans? I honestly feel like you could argue anything from WR1 to WR3. He's as likely as any WR to lead the league in TDs (other than maybe Adams), but he could go 1/20 in any given week. The team should be largely the same, so I feel like there should be more clarity here... but it looks muddy to me. 

I'll probably treat him as a low 2 with upside.   Depending on what happens with Godwin and Brown. 

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Just now, K197040 said:

I'll probably treat him as a low 2 with upside.   Depending on what happens with Godwin and Brown. 

maybe that's too low.   maybe mid 2.    Would need some clarity on the other WR though.

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14 minutes ago, K197040 said:

maybe that's too low.   maybe mid 2.    Would need some clarity on the other WR though.

I expect Godwin and Brown to be back. I don't know if it would be better or worse for Evans if those guys leave. Like I said, muddy. 

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21 hours ago, ajs723 said:

What the heck do we make of Evans? I honestly feel like you could argue anything from WR1 to WR3. He's as likely as any WR to lead the league in TDs (other than maybe Adams), but he could go 1/20 in any given week. The team should be largely the same, so I feel like there should be more clarity here... but it looks muddy to me. 

I don't see any reason to think he would return anything much more than he did this year.

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15 minutes ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

I don't see any reason to think he would return anything much more than he did this year.

He was WR11 this year. And WR10 after week 1, when he was limited. So that's not exactly a knock.

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On 2/11/2021 at 9:56 PM, ajs723 said:

He was WR11 this year. And WR10 after week 1, when he was limited. So that's not exactly a knock.

I wasn't saying it a knock.  I was just saying as I think it's fair to expect similar numbers that he did this year.  It's interesting that you took it as a knock though because I think the overall mindset is that Evans was a disappointment this year.  

Looking at ADP numbers from before the season it looks like he was going as WR8 so a WR10/11 isn't that far away from returning fair value. 

I think he can safely be drafted in that WR8-11 range.  I don't think he will drop too far below or get too much higher than that.  Pretty stable floor/ceiling. 

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I like him a lot - right now. I'd like him a lot more if Brown moves on. 

His singular issue over career has been injuries - he has a nice little durability streak going on right now. 

I'd take him as ideally a WR2 in redraft - and as a WR1 if desperate.

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11 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

I like him a lot - right now. I'd like him a lot more if Brown moves on. 

His singular issue over career has been injuries - he has a nice little durability streak going on right now. 

I'd take him as ideally a WR2 in redraft - and as a WR1 if desperate.

He's never really had injury issues. He's played in 15 or 16 games every year but 2019, when he missed a total of 3 games. 

The issue right now is volume. 

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A line of 76/1180/9 is his career average through 7 seasons. I expect him to finish within 5 catches (between 71-81) and 100 yards (between 1080-1280) of these averages. The only one that can vary wildly with him are TDs. He’s Brady’s favorite end zone target and is virtually impossible to cover one on one in goalline fade situations. Can’t really double team him either with all of the other weapons at Brady’s disposal. He’s a low end WR1 with a pretty safe floor but lacks the ceiling of the tippy top WRs since he has no chance to catch 100 passes or gain 1500 yards. Easy mid to late second round pick for me due to the safety of his floor.

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Let's be honest here, anyone who owned him in 2020 felt fortunate anytime he caught 5 balls in any given week.  The TD production was the best thing he gave you, and even still you feared rolling him out there if you had an alternative wr with a good matchup.

Only at the end of the season did I feel supremely confident, as I knew the impact of his 1000 yard record and Brady would not want to be the one who ended it for him.

2021 it looks like Brady is back.  I don't see how Godwin can turn down the money that will be thrown at him, so I expect him to leave.  No one wants AB more than Brady, so I see him being back.  Gronk is back.  Miller and Johnson will team up to replace Godwin.  So 1000 yards seems safe yet again, although I don't see them giving Evans as many short goal line TDs.  Say he gets 'only' 10.  I'll treat him like a WR2 in draft season due to the terrible weeks he will give a 1 catch game, just like he did in the Super Bowl.  But he'll have as safe a floor as he ever had without Godwin.

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12 hours ago, JAG said:

Let's be honest here, anyone who owned him in 2020 felt fortunate anytime he caught 5 balls in any given week.  The TD production was the best thing he gave you, and even still you feared rolling him out there if you had an alternative wr with a good matchup.

Only at the end of the season did I feel supremely confident, as I knew the impact of his 1000 yard record and Brady would not want to be the one who ended it for him.

2021 it looks like Brady is back.  I don't see how Godwin can turn down the money that will be thrown at him, so I expect him to leave.  No one wants AB more than Brady, so I see him being back.  Gronk is back.  Miller and Johnson will team up to replace Godwin.  So 1000 yards seems safe yet again, although I don't see them giving Evans as many short goal line TDs.  Say he gets 'only' 10.  I'll treat him like a WR2 in draft season due to the terrible weeks he will give a 1 catch game, just like he did in the Super Bowl.  But he'll have as safe a floor as he ever had without Godwin.

Franchise Tag 

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1 hour ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

Franchise Tag 

They need to free up money to resign Barrett or to find a pass rusher to replace him if he leaves.  Godwin's tag would cost around 20M, which seems too rich at a luxury position where they already have big money on their books.  They could have other holes like if L. David leaves too.  IDK what they could get in the draft, but that pass rusher will be tough to find at 32.  I think that takes priority over a WR.

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1 hour ago, JAG said:

They need to free up money to resign Barrett or to find a pass rusher to replace him if he leaves.  Godwin's tag would cost around 20M, which seems too rich at a luxury position where they already have big money on their books.  They could have other holes like if L. David leaves too.  IDK what they could get in the draft, but that pass rusher will be tough to find at 32.  I think that takes priority over a WR.

 

This, I think Godwin is gone

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Fantasy aside. I just watched the NFL Films "Turning Point" video on Super Bow Lenny.  And even though he only had one catch so far he was talking to the coaches to keep giving Lenny the ball and let him feast. I know a lot of Elite WR that would be pissed with only one ball so far, even though it's the super bowl.

Including his comments about taking a cut to get other people signed, he's a team first player and I love it. Maybe not ideal for fantasy, but he's a great guy.

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