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Adalberto Mondesi 2021 Outlook


89Topps
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Obviously, there's a ton to get into with Mondesi. His strengths and flaws are well known.  He can be a league winner, but the ADP doesn't leave much room for profit this year.

Wanted to start his thread as there's some discussion the Beni trade could move Mondesi down in the lineup to 7th or 8th. Could be big for fantasy implications.

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1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

Obviously, there's a ton to get into with Mondesi. His strengths and flaws are well known.  He can be a league winner, but the ADP doesn't leave much room for profit this year.

Wanted to start his thread as there's some discussion the Beni trade could move Mondesi down in the lineup to 7th or 8th. Could be big for fantasy implications.

If you are implying Benintendi could lead-off I don't think so.  He hates lead-off and when needed to do it in Boston it sent him into his mental nosedive that he never recovered from.  I would think they would want Mondesi at the top of the order since his speed is his calling card.  Yeah I know his OBP is not good but speed is his "thing".

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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The Royals aren't going anywhere this year anyways, might as well just stick Mondesi at 1 or 2 and see what happens.  Obvious if he's hitting terrible and it his confidence is struggling because of that they might drop him down.  But I wouldn't be too worried about them moving him down in the order.

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

If you are implying Benintendi could lead-off I don't think so.  He hates lead-off and when needed to do it in Boston it sent him into his mental nosedive that he never recovered from.  I would think they would want Mondesi at the top of the order since his speed is his calling card.  Yeah I know his OBP is not good but speed is his "thing".

Merrifield is typically their leadoff guy. Mondesi usually bats second.  If Beni ends up there, it could push Mondesi down to the bottom of the order.

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As a Royals fan I’d caution anyone who thinks it’s a given that Mondesi hits first or second. I don’t think the opening day lineup will be settled until mid to late March. I think there’s two likely options:

1. Whit Merrifield (RF)
2. Adalberto Mondesi (SS)
3. Salvador Perez (C)
4. Carlos Santana (1B)
5. Jorge Soler (DH)
6. Andrew Benintendi (LF)
7. Hunter Dozier (3B)
8. Michael A. Taylor (CF)
9. Nicky Lopez (2B)
 

Or,

1. Whit Merrifield (RF)
2. Andrew Benintendi (LF)
3. Salvador Perez (C)
4. Jorge Soler (DH)
5. Carlos Santana (1B)
6. Hunter Dozier (3B)
7. Adalberto Mondesi (SS)
8. Michael A. Taylor (CF)
9. Nicky Lopez (2B)

Personally, I think Mondesi is such a maniac on the basepaths that I think they’d be foolish to bat him down in the order so I’d much rather see the first lineup. 
Other notes: I think Hanser Alberto beats out Lopez for the starting 2b gig. This team is going to steal a lot of bases this year. They’re also going to score a lot more runs than last year and there will be fantasy relevant players up and down the lineup. With the moves they’ve been making this offseason, they’re expecting to be in contention, at least for a wild card spot. Whether that happens or not depends on their young pitching.

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Assuming semi-rational managing, I think it is a given he bats in the 2 spot. So long as he doesn't dig himself a massive hole like last year.

It just makes sense to have his speed near the top and allows the the moderately 'heavy' hitters in the heart of the lineup to see more fastballs.

Playing in his age 25 season, there is still much upside with him.

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Remember Benintendi has had poor performance followed by injury the last 2 years.  I seriously doubt he will bat second in the line-up unless he redeems his stock astronomically in spring training.  He was moved BACK in the line-up in 2019 as he tanked.  Mondesi should be the overwhelming favorite to bat in the front of the line-up over Benny going in.  It is Mondesi's to lose in other words.

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2 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Assuming semi-rational managing, I think it is a given he bats in the 2 spot. So long as he doesn't dig himself a massive hole like last year.

It just makes sense to have his speed near the top and allows the the moderately 'heavy' hitters in the heart of the lineup to see more fastballs.

Playing in his age 25 season, there is still much upside with him.

I don't know that rational managing puts him at the top of the lineup. A sub .300 OBP is pretty tough to justify at two, regardless of the speed.

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Remember Benintendi has had poor performance followed by injury the last 2 years.  I seriously doubt he will bat second in the line-up unless he redeems his stock astronomically in spring training.  He was moved BACK in the line-up in 2019 as he tanked.  Mondesi should be the overwhelming favorite to bat in the front of the line-up over Benny going in.  It is Mondesi's to lose in other words.

I don't know. Even in a pretty crappy 2019, his OBP was 50 points higher than Mondesi.

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5 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Assuming semi-rational managing, I think it is a given he bats in the 2 spot. So long as he doesn't dig himself a massive hole like last year.

It just makes sense to have his speed near the top and allows the the moderately 'heavy' hitters in the heart of the lineup to see more fastballs.

Playing in his age 25 season, there is still much upside with him.

Never assume semi-rational managing with the Royals. While they’re acceptance of analytics has been progressing, they’re still behind most clubs.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Just came across this article on Royals Review regarding a discussion about the Royals lineup: https://www.royalsreview.com/2021/2/23/22285095/what-should-the-royals-lineup-look-like-in-2021

It’s mostly just speculation and a discussion but there’s a link to an interview with the assistant GM suggesting Benintendi is going to be batting at or near the top of the order. My prediction is Mondesi starts the year batting 7th but moves up as the season goes on.

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  • 3 weeks later...

81 career wrc+, this is the biggest disparity between real life skill and fantasy value (5x5).

I think there is a non zero risk that he hits so poorly that he loses playing time, especially with a deadened ball turning some wall scrapers into outs.

If he gets full ABs though, he can still steal 60 despite a bad triple slash.

I will pass.

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18 minutes ago, el_Mantico said:

Last minute removal from yesterday's lineup, and not in today's lineup.  Can't find one KC beat person reporting on why.  Anybody heard or read anything?

Probably stress-related after finding out someone mortgaged a $5000.00 buy-in league on his performance.

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27 minutes ago, el_Mantico said:

Last minute removal from yesterday's lineup, and not in today's lineup.  Can't find one KC beat person reporting on why.  Anybody heard or read anything?

Sent down to Low A so Bobby Witt  Jr can teach him out to hit better.

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On 3/19/2021 at 5:27 PM, fawkes_mulder said:

81 career wrc+, this is the biggest disparity between real life skill and fantasy value (5x5).

I think there is a non zero risk that he hits so poorly that he loses playing time, especially with a deadened ball turning some wall scrapers into outs.

If he gets full ABs though, he can still steal 60 despite a bad triple slash.

I will pass.

Longehagen was in rare form last week on fangraphs discussing fantasy baseball, and I definitiley agree with his point here. Mondesi is a prime example of why standard 5x5 is something I personally  do not enjoy anymore.   Having steals count for 25% of your hitters value is insane to me.   I don't enjoy owning bad players because they are good in fantasy, whether its a steals guy or a poop reliever who is getting saves at the moment.  I don't find that fun because like when someone like Mondesi eventually gets replaced (this year, next year, whenever), how can I be upset at a bad hitter losing his spot in a lineup?  Guy is projected to have under a 700 OPS and he's a second rounder. OK. 

Phillip Jeffries: Eric, if all things work out for Corbin Carroll does he have the profile of a future fantasy stud or a better real-life guy? Do you see him stealing a lot of bases at the major league level, potentially getting a ton of hits and runs with a great average (if he “hits” as a prospect)?

 

 
12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t play fantasy and so am terrible at answering questions like this. I will say that I find it odd that fantasy baseball has stayed the same even though actual baseball has changed. If I were playing fantasy I’d want whatever defines a good actual baseball player and what defines a good fantasy player to be as close to one another as possible and instead those two have grown farther apart, and that’s kind of a problem when most of my readers seem to care about fantasy while I write about actual stuff.
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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Mondesi is a prime example of why standard 5x5 is something I personally  do not enjoy anymore.   Having steals count for 25% of your hitters value is insane to me.   

20%.

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4 minutes ago, Overlord said:

20%.

If we're being real, steals don't count for 20% of mondesi's value. He's being drafted almost entirely for that reason, and the roster construction around him is probably reliant on him bagging a bunch.

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