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Adalberto Mondesi 2021 Outlook


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10 minutes ago, Overlord said:

20%.

 

 

4 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

If we're being real, steals don't count for 20% of mondesi's value. He's being drafted almost entirely for that reason, and the roster construction around him is probably reliant on him bagging a bunch.

 

Math is hard, Overlord was right to correct me, and you too are correct in that his value makes up more than 20% of Mondesi's, it's close to 100%.

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Longehagen was in rare form last week on fangraphs discussing fantasy baseball, and I definitiley agree with his point here. Mondesi is a prime example of why standard 5x5 is something I personally  do not enjoy anymore.   Having steals count for 25% of your hitters value is insane to me.   I don't enjoy owning bad players because they are good in fantasy, whether its a steals guy or a poop reliever who is getting saves at the moment.  I don't find that fun because like when someone like Mondesi eventually gets replaced (this year, next year, whenever), how can I be upset at a bad hitter losing his spot in a lineup?  Guy is projected to have under a 700 OPS and he's a second rounder. OK. 

Phillip Jeffries: Eric, if all things work out for Corbin Carroll does he have the profile of a future fantasy stud or a better real-life guy? Do you see him stealing a lot of bases at the major league level, potentially getting a ton of hits and runs with a great average (if he “hits” as a prospect)?

 

 
12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t play fantasy and so am terrible at answering questions like this. I will say that I find it odd that fantasy baseball has stayed the same even though actual baseball has changed. If I were playing fantasy I’d want whatever defines a good actual baseball player and what defines a good fantasy player to be as close to one another as possible and instead those two have grown farther apart, and that’s kind of a problem when most of my readers seem to care about fantasy while I write about actual stuff.

I couldn’t care less if fantasy baseball resembled real life baseball. Same with football. 

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8 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Math is hard, Overlord was right to correct me, and you too are correct in that his value makes up more than 20% of Mondesi's, it's close to 100%.

Actually more than 100% of his value comes from SB, because from the other categories he gets minus values, except from Runs, which is close to a 0 value.

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4 hours ago, JCD said:

Actually more than 100% of his value comes from SB, because from the other categories he gets minus values, except from Runs, which is close to a 0 value.

How does he get minus value in HR and RBI? His career 162-game average is 17 HR and 72 RBI. 

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6 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

How does he get minus value in HR and RBI? His career 162-game average is 17 HR and 72 RBI. 

Player's value comes from their production compared to other player's production in a given league. Im in leagues where we have 300 players overall, and Mondesi's HR, RBI and AVG/OBP values are in the negative there.
I used players 2019+2020 prodution extrapolated for 162 games for eval.
That gave Mondesi 15 HRs and 83 RBIs with 67 SBs for 162 games. In his case it is not too difficult to check my numbers, as in 2019 he missed 59 games due to injury, and played 59 in 2020.
15 Hrs and 83 RBI's in a full season in that player universe won't cut it. Without SBs he would not be a top 300 player.

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25 minutes ago, JCD said:

Player's value comes from their production compared to other player's production in a given league. Im in leagues where we have 300 players overall, and Mondesi's HR, RBI and AVG/OBP values are in the negative there.
I used players 2019+2020 prodution extrapolated for 162 games for eval.
That gave Mondesi 15 HRs and 83 RBIs with 67 SBs for 162 games. In his case it is not too difficult to check my numbers, as in 2019 he missed 59 games due to injury, and played 59 in 2020.
15 Hrs and 83 RBI's in a full season in that player universe won't cut it. Without SBs he would not be a top 300 player.

300 players is a small league. Even still, I find it strange to say that without SBs, he wouldn’t be a top 300 player. Why even think of it like that? Without his HR, Alonso wouldn’t even be a top 500 player...but he does hit HR. Just like Mondesi does steal bases. And the fact that he can steal 50 bases AND hit 15 HR simply drives up his value. So in Mondesi’s case, I’d argue that his HRs are a plus value because they are added to a SB total that will likely lead the league if he stays healthy. But then, I refuse to look at cats in isolation like you’re talking about. 

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4 hours ago, JCD said:

Player's value comes from their production compared to other player's production in a given league. Im in leagues where we have 300 players overall, and Mondesi's HR, RBI and AVG/OBP values are in the negative there.
I used players 2019+2020 prodution extrapolated for 162 games for eval.
That gave Mondesi 15 HRs and 83 RBIs with 67 SBs for 162 games. In his case it is not too difficult to check my numbers, as in 2019 he missed 59 games due to injury, and played 59 in 2020.
15 Hrs and 83 RBI's in a full season in that player universe won't cut it. Without SBs he would not be a top 300 player.

I’ll take the bait here. Your saying that in the player universe you created 15 hr and 83 rbi (forgetting all other stats) isn’t enough to be a top 300 player. 
You’re certain of this?  Because if that’s true we both know we can come up with several (if not a lot) of players that will only have 15 hr and 83 rbi in the top 300. 

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In the forum mock we're 89 picks in, and there's only 21 hitters left with 83 or more projected RBI's. So Mondesi's issue isn't the counting stats, it's that he may not hit/get on base enough to keep his place in the lineup, maybe even on the team. His manager doesn't have a SB category to fill so if he continues to hit considerably below the league average hitter then his glove better be elite or the playing time/lineup spot could disappear. I think there's a decent chance that once Witt has "worked on his defense" in the minors for a few weeks that Mondesi could be fighting with Nicky Lopez to see who loses their job. Lucky for him Lopez is pretty horrible. KC does like to run more than most teams, so he's probably got a little more leash there but I don't know how long a guy with a low avg, not taking walks, and striking out a ton can last in the upper part of a lineup. 

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1 hour ago, mavsfan23 said:

In the forum mock we're 89 picks in, and there's only 21 hitters left with 83 or more projected RBI's. So Mondesi's issue isn't the counting stats, it's that he may not hit/get on base enough to keep his place in the lineup, maybe even on the team. His manager doesn't have a SB category to fill so if he continues to hit considerably below the league average hitter then his glove better be elite or the playing time/lineup spot could disappear. I think there's a decent chance that once Witt has "worked on his defense" in the minors for a few weeks that Mondesi could be fighting with Nicky Lopez to see who loses their job. Lucky for him Lopez is pretty horrible. KC does like to run more than most teams, so he's probably got a little more leash there but I don't know how long a guy with a low avg, not taking walks, and striking out a ton can last in the upper part of a lineup. 

I’m sorry but the odds of Mondesi losing his job are slim to none.  Mondesi plays absolutely stud defense which should keep him in the lineup at a minimum.  There have been reports that the royals want to EXTEND Mondesi, which isn’t something you would do with someone in any danger of losing his job.  Furthermore, there are rumors that Witt might move to 2B when he’s promoted or even OF- they recently asked him to practice outfield in the minors to increase his flexibility, which signals to me he ain’t taking over Mondesi’s spot.

Mondesi has a lot of risk, but playing time isn’t one of them 

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1 hour ago, mavsfan23 said:

In the forum mock we're 89 picks in, and there's only 21 hitters left with 83 or more projected RBI's. So Mondesi's issue isn't the counting stats, it's that he may not hit/get on base enough to keep his place in the lineup, maybe even on the team. His manager doesn't have a SB category to fill so if he continues to hit considerably below the league average hitter then his glove better be elite or the playing time/lineup spot could disappear. I think there's a decent chance that once Witt has "worked on his defense" in the minors for a few weeks that Mondesi could be fighting with Nicky Lopez to see who loses their job. Lucky for him Lopez is pretty horrible. KC does like to run more than most teams, so he's probably got a little more leash there but I don't know how long a guy with a low avg, not taking walks, and striking out a ton can last in the upper part of a lineup. 

Respectfully, as a Royals fan I’d say there is virtually no chance Mondesi loses his job to Nicky Lopez. Mondesi has been worth 2.8 fWAR in 75 games in 2018, 2.4 fWAR in 102 games in 2019, and 1.4 fWAR in 59 games last season. Management loves Mondesi and he plays terrific defense so if he slumps he’ll still be in the lineup. Lopez, meanwhile, hasn’t shown anything (he’s been downright awful) and is about to lose the 2b battle to Hansen Alberto. Mondesi is going to get extended soon and they’re planning on him being their starting shortstop for several years to come. Yes he has his flaws, but he is a dynamic, young player that plays a plus shortstop and is hyper aggressive on the base paths putting a ton of pressure on opposing defenses.

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12 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I’m sorry but the odds of Mondesi losing his job are slim to none.  Mondesi plays absolutely stud defense which should keep him in the lineup at a minimum.  There have been reports that the royals want to EXTEND Mondesi, which isn’t something you would do with someone in any danger of losing his job.  Furthermore, there are rumors that Witt might move to 2B when he’s promoted or even OF- they recently asked him to practice outfield in the minors to increase his flexibility, which signals to me he ain’t taking over Mondesi’s spot.

Mondesi has a lot of risk, but playing time isn’t one of them 

You beat me to it, but this x 100%.

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2 hours ago, Smallball said:

I’ll take the bait here. Your saying that in the player universe you created 15 hr and 83 rbi (forgetting all other stats) isn’t enough to be a top 300 player. 
You’re certain of this?  Because if that’s true we both know we can come up with several (if not a lot) of players that will only have 15 hr and 83 rbi in the top 300. 

No.
I said Mondesi's value in a default 5x5 12 team 25 manager = 300 players league, without Steals is negative, and won't make the cut.
As the subject of the debate was how much of his value comes from steals.
With other settings, like if you use CI and MI, it will be different.

I am certain. I have the data. As I said I used actual production for evaluation, for all the players.
Here is Miondesi's value in that default setting league with slightly more players than default yahoo.

1459625051_mondesi-67SB(2).jpg.a1a07c926a0acd719f4b563300cafcbe.jpg

Then I eliminated all his SBs, to be able to see how much of his value is tied to SBs. This shows his value if nothing else is changed and all other players retain their stolen bases.

671755036_mondesi-0SB(2).jpg.37d1839a3c822584027b4b1ce3a299ed.jpg

"clearly" (I hope because attachment max size is 50 kb) it can be seen that his value is gone. He is outside of the 300 to be selected.
And as a side effect, Marte, Bogaerts (visible), and all others in the pool with SBs gained value.

Then, I eliminated Stolen bases as a category all together, and I got Mondesi #264 (of which I have a screenshot too, but not allowed to attach more)
Taking into consideration that there is 5 pitching categories too, I elimintaed pitching, that left me with a selectable player pool of 168 players for this league. 14 batters/team.
Mondesi is at #132. That is his value in a league of this size without pitching and stolen bases as a category.

Edited by JCD
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13 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Respectfully, as a Royals fan I’d say there is virtually no chance Mondesi loses his job to Nicky Lopez. Mondesi has been worth 2.8 fWAR in 75 games in 2018, 2.4 fWAR in 102 games in 2019, and 1.4 fWAR in 59 games last season. Management loves Mondesi and he plays terrific defense so if he slumps he’ll still be in the lineup. Lopez, meanwhile, hasn’t shown anything (he’s been downright awful) and is about to lose the 2b battle to Hansen Alberto. Mondesi is going to get extended soon and they’re planning on him being their starting shortstop for several years to come. Yes he has his flaws, but he is a dynamic, young player that plays a plus shortstop and is hyper aggressive on the base paths putting a ton of pressure on opposing defenses.

I agree that it's not likely that he loses his job, and even less likely that it's to Lopez as we can all agree he's useless, but is there a player in the top 100 adp(maybe even 200) that has a higher chance of losing their job than him? I do think the lineup spot is in very dangerous territory though. He's got the lowest wOBA, OPS, wRC+, you name it, of anyone in the top 100 and those guys tend to fail a lot. Feels a lot like Jonathan Villar to me, who oddly enough has been a better hitter than Mondesi. 

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2 hours ago, JCD said:

No.
I said Mondesi's value in a default 5x5 12 team 25 manager = 300 players league, without Steals is negative, and won't make the cut.
As the subject of the debate was how much of his value comes from steals.
With other settings, like if you use CI and MI, it will be different.

I am certain. I have the data. As I said I used actual production for evaluation, for all the players.
Here is Miondesi's value in that default setting league with slightly more players than default yahoo.

1459625051_mondesi-67SB(2).jpg.a1a07c926a0acd719f4b563300cafcbe.jpg

Then I eliminated all his SBs, to be able to see how much of his value is tied to SBs. This shows his value if nothing else is changed and all other players retain their stolen bases.

671755036_mondesi-0SB(2).jpg.37d1839a3c822584027b4b1ce3a299ed.jpg

"clearly" (I hope because attachment max size is 50 kb) it can be seen that his value is gone. He is outside of the 300 to be selected.
And as a side effect, Marte, Bogaerts (visible), and all others in the pool with SBs gained value.

Then, I eliminated Stolen bases as a category all together, and I got Mondesi #264 (of which I have a screenshot too, but not allowed to attach more)
Taking into consideration that there is 5 pitching categories too, I elimintaed pitching, that left me with a selectable player pool of 168 players for this league. 14 batters/team.
Mondesi is at #132. That is his value in a league of this size without pitching and stolen bases as a category.

Okay, so any valuation formula that removes steals and places a .260-90-15-83 hitter outside the top 300 players when his SBs are removed is stupid and needs to be junked, especially when it places said player outside the top 250 when all SBs are eliminated. Sorry, but I don’t know any other way to say it. Whatever formula does that is ridiculous, period. 

In 2019, with those numbers Mondesi would have tied for 171st in HR, 60th in RBI, 49th in R, and roughly 90th in BA. But those numbers would bounce him from the top 250 if no SBs are counted? Lol, okay. 

Edited by Flyman75
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4 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Okay, so any valuation formula that removes steals and places a .260-90-15-83 hitter outside the top 300 players when his SBs are removed is stupid and needs to be junked, especially when it places said player outside the top 250 when all SBs are eliminated. Sorry, but I don’t know any other way to say it. Whatever formula does that is ridiculous, period. 

In 2019, Mondesi would have tied for 171st in HR, 60th in RBI, 49 in R, and roughly 90th in BA. But those numbers would bounce him from the top 250 if no SBs are counted? Lol, okay. 

where are you getting those projected stats from?  none of the projection systems on fangraphs as the highest Bavg projection is .254 and the highest RBI is 76.  The runs projections go as low as 68 and as high as 90

 

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1 minute ago, jb_power said:

where are you getting those projected stats from?  none of the projection systems on fangraphs as the highest Bavg projection is .254 and the highest RBI is 76.  The runs projections go as low as 68 and as high as 90

 

pretty sure hes using mondesi last 162 games

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8 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Okay, so any valuation formula that removes steals and places a .260-90-15-83 hitter outside the top 300 players when his SBs are removed is stupid and needs to be junked, especially when it places said player outside the top 250 when all SBs are eliminated. Sorry, but I don’t know any other way to say it. Whatever formula does that is ridiculous, period. 

In 2019, with those numbers Mondesi would have tied for 171st in HR, 60th in RBI, 49th in R, and roughly 90th in BA. But those numbers would bounce him from the top 250 if no SBs are counted? Lol, okay. 

 

I really don't want to jump in on the Mondesi inter-squabble, but can it be assumed that every player in this model is given 162 games played and thus it boils down to his rate per game stats and not his totals? This is most famously done on Basketball Monster, where Kyrie Irving would be a top 5 player if you gave him 82 games played every year. If Mondesi takes 162 games to put up 260/90/17/83, and the player pool is divided into roughly 150 hitters/150 pitchers, I suppose it's possible he drops out of the top 300. I'm going to back out now, as I'm not particularly interested in this model debate sans SBs.

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8 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Okay, so any valuation formula that removes steals and places a .260-90-15-83 hitter outside the top 300 players when his SBs are removed is stupid and needs to be junked, especially when it places said player outside the top 250 when all SBs are eliminated. Sorry, but I don’t know any other way to say it. Whatever formula does that is ridiculous, period. 

As long as it's a z-score based formula and the cutoffs are right in terms of setting where replacement level is, then it's valid, and descriptive of the actual portion of the player's value that's accounted for by SBs.  In the extreme example where only one player in MLB gets all the stolen bases and everyone else gets none, that player's value is astronomical, because they alone can get you 10% of your team's standings points.  SBs aren't quite that narrowly concentrated, but it's close, and that narrow concentration raises the value of those players by more than one might think.

It's also true that removing the SB column entirely devalues Mondesi by increasing the value of the other 4 categories in which he's not as much of an outlier.  His 15 HR penalizes him even more.  We love those 15 HR because they come with league-leading steal numbers, but 15 with a .260 and good but not great R/RBI numbers is a borderline 4x4 player.

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^Just to bookend the comment above, the best correlation to the current NBA is #14 ranked Myles Turner. Without blocked shots, Myles Turner provides no value in practically any of the remaining 8 categories. This is a snapshot of Myles Turner from Basketball Monster's per game value. The only "z-score" or standard deviation in his favor is blocked shots.

 

(the bottom line)

983-E81-D2-7107-440-D-8-B46-673-FCE26-DA

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14 minutes ago, bbythepier said:

 

I really don't want to jump in on the Mondesi inter-squabble, but can it be assumed that every player in this model is given 162 games played and thus it boils down to his rate per game stats and not his totals? This is most famously done on Basketball Monster, where Kyrie Irving would be a top 5 player if you gave him 82 games played every year. If Mondesi takes 162 games to put up 260/90/17/83, and the player pool is divided into roughly 150 hitters/150 pitchers, I suppose it's possible he drops out of the top 300. I'm going to back out now, as I'm not particularly interested in this model debate sans SBs.

yes mondesi total rank last year punt steals is 218 overall

mondesi per game rank last year was 481. because of players with small sample sized that did well. 6/25 top per game players players played like 1--3 games.

https://baseballmonster.com/playerrankings.aspx

 

edit- mondesi sb value last year was as much as the #2 and #3 valued sb leaders combined

Edited by colepenhagen
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9 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

As long as it's a z-score based formula and the cutoffs are right in terms of setting where replacement level is, then it's valid, and descriptive of the actual portion of the player's value that's accounted for by SBs.  In the extreme example where only one player in MLB gets all the stolen bases and everyone else gets none, that player's value is astronomical, because they alone can get you 10% of your team's standings points.  SBs aren't quite that narrowly concentrated, but it's close, and that narrow concentration raises the value of those players by more than one might think.

It's also true that removing the SB column entirely devalues Mondesi by increasing the value of the other 4 categories in which he's not as much of an outlier.  His 15 HR penalizes him even more.  We love those 15 HR because they come with league-leading steal numbers, but 15 with a .260 and good but not great R/RBI numbers is a borderline 4x4 player.


Yes, it is z-score based, as Im convinced that players on the waiver wire are worth exactly nothing for any team in the league, But I still have them ranked using their original score, when all players are still gen pop.
And thank you for answering to that rant with great knowledge and understanding of math to provide confirmation.

Edited by JCD
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Ok so wait, Mondesi is valuable because he steals bases? Is that what I'm reading? 

 

On the ril', I loved how he finished last season on a tear. I think there's some non-SB upside.

Edited by 2ndCitySox
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On 3/23/2021 at 5:23 PM, jb_power said:

where are you getting those projected stats from?  none of the projection systems on fangraphs as the highest Bavg projection is .254 and the highest RBI is 76.  The runs projections go as low as 68 and as high as 90

 

Those were the numbers in JCD's projection screenshots. 

 

On 3/23/2021 at 5:31 PM, tonycpsu said:

As long as it's a z-score based formula and the cutoffs are right in terms of setting where replacement level is, then it's valid, and descriptive of the actual portion of the player's value that's accounted for by SBs.  In the extreme example where only one player in MLB gets all the stolen bases and everyone else gets none, that player's value is astronomical, because they alone can get you 10% of your team's standings points.  SBs aren't quite that narrowly concentrated, but it's close, and that narrow concentration raises the value of those players by more than one might think.

It's also true that removing the SB column entirely devalues Mondesi by increasing the value of the other 4 categories in which he's not as much of an outlier.  His 15 HR penalizes him even more.  We love those 15 HR because they come with league-leading steal numbers, but 15 with a .260 and good but not great R/RBI numbers is a borderline 4x4 player.

The bottom line for me is that the numbers JCD used would have put Mondesi in the top 90 (60th, 49th, and 90th) in three cats in the last full season MLB played, while the HRs would have put him at 170ish. The combo of those four in no way drops him out of the top 250 overall. I don't care what he formula is, it shouldn't happen. 

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