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Adalberto Mondesi 2021 Outlook


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Quit insulting 70 yr olds.

I’m sorry but the odds of Mondesi losing his job are slim to none.  Mondesi plays absolutely stud defense which should keep him in the lineup at a minimum.  There have been reports that the royals wan

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I feel like Mondesi's risk profile was pretty well-known, particularly for anyone who's been playing the game long enough to remember Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon.  Those guys had different profiles than Mondesi, but the same risk-reward calculus of overpaying for the steals and being in trouble if they're not producing them due to injury, suspension, or an inability to get on base is pretty well-established at this point.

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3 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

I feel like Mondesi's risk profile was pretty well-known, particularly for anyone who's been playing the game long enough to remember Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon.  Those guys had different profiles than Mondesi, but the same risk-reward calculus of overpaying for the steals and being in trouble if they're not producing them due to injury, suspension, or an inability to get on base is pretty well-established at this point.

As a Royals fan I’ve followed his career more closely than most players and each year prior to this year I’ve warned of his propensity for soft tissue injuries. Sadly I didn’t heed my own warnings and am now saddled with this mistake on several teams. At this point I’d sign up for half a season from him but I’m not sure we even get that this year.
 

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On 6/8/2021 at 8:32 PM, tonycpsu said:

I feel like Mondesi's risk profile was pretty well-known, particularly for anyone who's been playing the game long enough to remember Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon.  Those guys had different profiles than Mondesi, but the same risk-reward calculus of overpaying for the steals and being in trouble if they're not producing them due to injury, suspension, or an inability to get on base is pretty well-established at this point.

Sure, you can predict that some players will miss some games.
But there is no profile that predicts 3 month long injuries.
Everyone knew that if Eloy, Springer, Trout etc... gets injured he will be risky.
They won't produce as expected in any of the categories they are expected contribute to your team, as every single player produces the same in every category while on the DL.

Mondesi missed 47 games in 2019 due to disclocated shoulder, that you do not predict or expect. Plus he missed 11 games due to groin strain that can be expected.
Then Mondesi missed 1 game out of 60 in 2020 due to rest.
All in all he missed 11 games out of 222 "due to risk his profile".

Edited by JCD
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Yeah, what I was talking about there was not that Mondesi specifically had red flags re: injury, but that there is risk in putting all of your SB eggs in one basket. Dee Gordon wasn't a risky bet because we knew he'd get popped for PEDs -- of course we didn't -- he was a risky bet because if anything happened that kept him off the field, then you lost a large portion of your steals. It's a diversification argument, not about him being injury prone. 

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4 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Yeah, what I was talking about there was not that Mondesi specifically had red flags re: injury, but that there is risk in putting all of your SB eggs in one basket. Dee Gordon wasn't a risky bet because we knew he'd get popped for PEDs -- of course we didn't -- he was a risky bet because if anything happened that kept him off the field, then you lost a large portion of your steals. It's a diversification argument, not about him being injury prone. 

In my redraft where I own Mondesi, Im in a 3-way tie for 4th in SB, and with half a season to go, can get to 2nd place.
So I wouldn't think people with experience would count on Mondesi as their only source, more like the one to put them on top.
In a deep keeper keeping 10+, what can you do?
Probably you got him for nothing off FA anyway, so no crying allowed.

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If he could stay healthy just ONE FREAKIN' SEASON, I could easily see a 20 HR/50 SB year.

Of course, that'll be the year after I finally gave up and stopped drafting him.

Still, he does have sneaky power.

Edited by Wieties
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54 minutes ago, Wieties said:

If he could stay healthy just ONE FREAKIN' SEASON, I could easily see a 20 HR/50 SB year.

Of course, that'll be the year after I finally gave up and stopped drafting him.

Still, he does have sneaky power.

thats low balling

59 sb 163 game pace for career probably better than that last few season

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It doesn't matter.

He and Buxton have alot of ability but not the one that's the most vital - availability.

It's fun to dream on their skills but I just don't see either ever coming close to 162 games.

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