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Jonathan Taylor 2021 Outlook


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29 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I didn’t say Wentz’s backup is better than him, I said he might be. Given that Wentz was one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL last season, I don’t think that’s unreasonable. Wentz has barely learned this offensive system, never mind lead it.. Who is leading this offense now? Same guy who was leading it  before Wentz hurt his foot- Jonathan Taylor.

Unless JT is about to go prime AP, this is a 5-11 team with a bottom 5 worst offense. 

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55 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Are we sure Wentz can operate an NFL offense? Honestly Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garrapolo, hell even Cam Newton (all current or soon-to-be backups & potentially available) might all be better options for the Colts.

He had 3 straight seasons of above average QB play. Last year was bad, but before that he was pretty good. 

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What I was going to post before I read through this thread and just learned the news about Wentz:

  

On 7/2/2021 at 3:32 AM, USWAY said:

After the game, the press questioned Reich as to why he abondoned the run the second half with all of the success they seemed to be having. He said "I called run plays, and they were all checked out of at the line of scrimmage".  I'm pretty excited not to have to deal with that next year re: Rivers. I expect this team to be centered around the run game, and Wentz to trust Reich's play calling.

 

The word in Philly was that Wentz constantly checked out of running plays to make stupid pass attempts.


....


And now that Wentz is out of the mix, hey...you may have gotten an upgrade!

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4 hours ago, smeeze said:

Are we sure Wentz can operate an NFL offense? Honestly Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garrapolo, hell even Cam Newton (all current or soon-to-be backups & potentially available) might all be better options for the Colts.

Dalton is really bad. He did nothing last year with amazing wide receivers and Ezekiel Elliott. I doubt he'd be an upgrade over the backup Jacob Eason. 

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4 hours ago, smeeze said:

Are we sure Wentz can operate an NFL offense? Honestly Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garrapolo, hell even Cam Newton (all current or soon-to-be backups & potentially available) might all be better options for the Colts.

That said, I agree that there are better options out there for the Colts than Wentz (forgot to mention that part!).

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6 hours ago, timexsocialclub said:

Dalton is really bad. He did nothing last year with amazing wide receivers and Ezekiel Elliott. I doubt he'd be an upgrade over the backup Jacob Eason. 

Yep none of the options I mentioned are very inspiring. But neither is Carson Wentz. My point was that it’s a mistake to tie JT’s value with Wentz when equal or greater options are sitting out there.

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13 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I don’t get the freak out. Last year JT’s QB was a well-past-his-prime Philip Rivers in his last season in the NFL. JT still performed well enough to make him a 1st round fantasy draft pick. 
 

Replacing Rivers was Carson Wentz, one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL last season. Still, Taylor was being drafted in the 1st round. Wentz hurts his foot and suddenly people want no part of JT? Why? When did Carson Wentz become the key to JT’s success? For all we know, the Colts backup QB, whoever that is, might be better than Wentz. Plenty of RBs have thrived fantasy-wise with less than stellar QBs, including JT in 2020. Don’t overreact.

Its not really an indictment of JT just that I think its better to pivot to safer players. Now that Rodgers is back I'll take Jones and Adams over him, Hill, Kelce, Chubb and Ekeler for sure.

There's still the question of how his big workload will be and now another how question of bad this offense will be if Wentz misses time.

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2 hours ago, Evincar said:

Its not really an indictment of JT just that I think its better to pivot to safer players. Now that Rodgers is back I'll take Jones and Adams over him, Hill, Kelce, Chubb and Ekeler for sure.

There's still the question of how his big workload will be and now another how question of bad this offense will be if Wentz misses time.

I understand that in most cases losing the starting QB is bad for an offense in general. Though, in this particular case I’m honestly not so sure.

I never saw the Wentz acquisition as a plus for Taylor. If anything, I saw Wentz as a potential roadblock for Taylor. If Wentz looks like he did last year he’s going to bring JT down with him. And how long of a leash will Reich give Wentz? How many weeks will the Colts offense struggle because Wentz is being treated like a better QB than he actually is? 
 

I just wonder if JT would have more success with a QB who was content being a solid game manager, and not a project QB like Wentz with something to prove and coaches who may feel like they need to see what they have in him to the detriment of everyone around him. Just put a good game manger behind center, play great defense, and give Taylor a massive, feature back workload. Like, lead the league in touches kind of workload.

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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I think JT is a solid bet to not bust, I doubt he gets into the top 5, let alone top 3 on an offense that will average 20 points a game, if that. This offense looks to be pretty bad, at this point they don't have a QB on the roster that knows the offense, and we're a month out. Volume is great but  I don't expect continuity and sustained drives consistently. I don't see value here with his draft slot, the best he can do is match where he is being drafted.

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2 minutes ago, roadawg said:

I think JT is a solid bet to not bust, I doubt he gets into the top 5, let alone top 3 on an offense that will average 20 points a game, if that. This offense looks to be pretty bad, at this point they don't have a QB on the roster that knows the offense, and we're a month out. Volume is great but  I don't expect continuity and sustained drives consistently. I don't see value here with his draft slot, the best he can do is match where he is being drafted.

I think that’s a fair evaluation of the team, though I do see a path for Taylor to be a top 3-5 fantasy RB. Colts have a good defense and good offensive line. If they completely lean on JT, and give him all he can handle, he could league the lead in rushing, have a bunch of receptions, and score plenty of TDs even if the Colts average  20 points per game. JT seems like the kind of RB that is capable of carrying an offense, and I can see a scenario where the Colts actually win a lot of games that way, with just a game manager QB. 

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19 hours ago, Eazail said:

Ugh I was already avoiding Taylor in all my drafts now everybody will smfh. I always loved when he got taken over a guy I preferred 

i feel you.  Was hoping he would get taken high.  hopefully the colts will get a veteran qb

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I have a league drafting today and at this point I’m assuming Wentz misses at least 4 games. I love JT but I’m not going to sit here and act like the downgrade from Rivers last year to Eason isn’t going to be a huge drain in his value for the beginning part of the year.
Best case scenario (with or without Wentz until he proves himself) is to mimic a UW type situation where you have a dominant offensive line, solid defense and a QB who is able to take advantage of defenses for selling out against the run. Weeks 1-4 they play:

1: VS SEA. Solid rush defense who is already a pass funnel that did nothing to improve secondary, would probably slot in around RB12 in my hypothetical rankings for this matchup. 

2: VS LAR. Top defense in the NFL, would be a low end RB1 if he had Wentz or Rivers without them it’s hard to say he’s anything more than a TD dependent RB2, probably around RB20

3 and 4: @TEN and @MIA. Both middle of pack rush defenses and should be competitive games, probably would be around RB6-8 for both these games.

TLDR: Until I get word on a Wentz timeframe I think he’s going from my no doubt pick at 5 to a more conservative choice at the turn where I’m able to pair him with another RB.

 

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