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Shohei Ohtani 2021 Outlook


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12 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

How is that you do not understand the concept of comparing the production of two players? You don't get to supplement Acuna's production with anyone. Your roster spot was spent on Acuna. 

You have ONE roster spot to fill on your team. From that roster spot you have 162 games worth of production as a hitter or 30 plus starts as a pitcher. Those are your ONLY two options (when ignoring relief pitching). There is no substitution here, you are looking solely at that ONE roster spot. There is no bench. There is no free agency. If you rostered Acuna your value for that ONE spot is his 162 game totals as a hitter. If you rostered Ohtani his value for that ONE spot are his totals as a pitcher plus whatever offensive number he puts up on the days he does not pitch, which is going to total 162 games of production.

In your example, where for some reason you get supplement Acuna's production with pitching stats from another player on days that Ohtani starts, which is totally bizarre, you are leaving out the part where the team with Ohtani would get to start a hitter in his place on the days that Ohtani pitches. So any value added by using a bench player or the waiver wire is negated.   

 

Yes, your roster spot is spent on Acuna.  Yours is with Ohtani.  But you can't just ignore bench and free agency as if they don't exist lmao

Like, yes, if there was no bench or free agency, then what you would say is true!  Like, imagine a world with no bench or free agency, and we only got to draft one player.  Yeah, then you would get Ohtani's batting AND hitting production, and I would get only Acuna's batting production, so you could combine the values.  In this world (that doesn't exist), you just compare Ohtani batting +ohtani pitching to Acuna batting. 

But in actual fantasy baseball, there is an entire waiver wire that you can add for no cost.  The value of ANY player is [their production]-[the production of a waiver wire replacement.]  We just don't care about that normally because everyone is on the same playing field so we just ignore the second part of the equation. 

You are close to getting it. "In your example, where for some reason you get supplement Acuna's production with pitching stats from another player on days that Ohtani starts, which is totally bizarre, you are leaving out the part where the team with Ohtani would get to start a hitter in his place on the days that Ohtani pitches. So any value added by using a bench player or the waiver wire is negated."

Follow your line of logic to it's natural conclusion.   The value isn't NEGATED, but rather you are identifying what Ohtani's value actually IS.  It's the ability to use Ohtani as a pitcher INSTEAD of using a waiver wire pitcher.  That's why I said earlier the advantage for an Ohtani owner is:

1.  Having a starter quality player that is equivalent to the worst version of Ohtani (ie pitcher) instead of the worst starter for the Acuna team    AND 

2. Having an additional bench spot on your team with the value of the Acuna teams worst starting player.

If you follow your line of reasoning that YOU wrote until all the starter spots are filled up, you will reach this conclusion.  It works with any number of starters.  Let's say 3 starters for pitching and 3 for hitting.   (And remember we are in a hypothetical world in which we only drafted Acuna and Ohtani and have to fill our the rest of our roster with waiver wire players).

On days in which Ohtani does not pitch, we have:

Acuna team:

Hitting:

1. Acuna

2. Waiver wire

3. Waiver wire

Pitching

1.  Waiver wire

2. Waiver wire

3. Waiver wire 

Ohtani team:

Hitting:

1. Ohtani

2. Waiver wire

3. Waiver wire

Pitching

1.  Waiver wire

2. Waiver wire

3. Waiver wire 

 

And now let's consider days in which Ohtani does pitch.  Let's even give the benefit of the doubt and say you can use Ohtani as a pitcher and batter at the same time (which you can't even on yahoo).

Acuna team:

Hitting:

1. Acuna

2. Waiver wire

3. Waiver wire

Pitching

1.  Waiver wire

2. Waiver wire

3. Waiver wire 

Ohtani team:

Hitting:

1. Ohtani

2. Waiver wire

3. Waiver wire

Pitching

1.  Ohtani

2. Waiver wire

3. Waiver wire 

So in days in which Ohtani does not pitch, both teams are having their hitters and filling out their pitchers with waiver wire starters.  But in days in which Ohtani DOES pitch, the Ohtani team gets to use Ohtani as one of their 3 pitchers while the Acuna team has to use 3 waiver wire starters.  Difference?  Ohtani-waiver wire, not just Ohtani

---

 

But again, this is a really oversimplified world.   For my literal last grasp attempt, I am going to literally display my team for one of my failed 12 team leagues, Ohtani is one player in fantrax, and I have Acuna.  I am going to show how my world would change if I had Ohtani instead of Acuna.  (FYI my league is a weekly league but we can assume for the argument it's daily because that's the premise of this conversation).

 

C- Sean Murphy

1b- Colin Moran

2b- Jonathan India

3B- Yoan Moncada

SS- Willy Adames

CI- Austin Riley

MI- Jed Lowrie

OF- Acuna

OF- Herrera

OF- Mccutchen

OF- Naquin

OF- Santander

OF- Springer

P- Castillo, Eflin, Hill, Kelly, Lynn, Skubal, Stripling, Garrett (lol), Pressly.  

Bench: Calendario, Seager, Ketel, Franmil, Carrasco, Civale, Flexen, Means

--

Okay, there is my team.  Now let's assume I had Ohtani instead of Acuna.   (And for the absolute sake of argument let's say Ohtani can play OF and also can play OF when he pitches, which isn't true in every platform ).     

 

Every day I plug in Ohtani into my batting slots, super happy, ladaladala.   But every 5 (6?) days, Ohtani pitches.  

P- Castillo, Eflin, Hill, Kelly, Lynn, Skubal, Stripling, Garrett (lol), Pressly.    I decide that for the rest of the season, I'm going to replace my worst pitcher here (Merill Kelly, who I just got off the wire), with Ohtani every single time Ohtani pitches!   So I do that every single time Ohtani pitches.   All my other pitchers stay the same.  My hitters stay the same.  But all I'm doing is replacing Merill Kelly with Ohtani every time he pitches.  If I had Acuna, I would be forced to keep Merill Kelly in there (waiver wire material).  But with Ohtani, I can replace Merill Kelly.

So now we fast forward to the end of the season.    If I had Acuna, sadly I have to use Acuna's batting stats and Merilll Kelly's pitching stats for the entire season.  But if I have Ohtani, I don't need Kelly on my team, and instead use Ohtani on the days Merilly Kelly pitches.   So what do we have at the end of the season:

Acuna team:    EXACT SAME TEAM in hitting and pitches but Acuna batting and Kelly pitching 

Ohtani team: EXACT SAME TEAM in hitting and pitching but Ohtani batting and Ohtani pitching.

Identical teams.  literally identical.  One had acuna, one had Ohtani.  The only difference at the end of the seeason?

Acuna batting +Kelly pitching   compared to Ohtani batting + Ohtani pitching.    Not Acuna batting compared to Ohtani batting+Ohtani pitching.  You need to add a waiver wire value to Acuna to have it be accurate.

"But, in this instance, why can't the Ohtani team use Kelly AND Ohtani in pitching?!?"  Well, you can, but that the second part of the equation of Ohtani's value.  It's allowing you to have an extra waiver wire player on your team for whatever purpose you deem neccessary.  Want to use it as a batter as a backup? Go ahead.  Want to use it as a pitcher to hold for a streaming matchup? go ahead.   The value of this is going to depend on your settings.  

As I said before, this is Ohtani's value:

1.  Having a starter quality player that is equivalent to the worst version of Ohtani (ie pitcher) instead of the worst starter for the Acuna team.  In this example, the Ohtani team has a starter equality player that is equivalent to Ohtani pitcher (Ohtani pitcher themselves in this case) instead of the worst starter for the Acuna team (who was Merilly Kelly)   AND 

2. Having an additional bench spot on your team with the value of the Acuna teams best bench player.  In this example Merilly Kelly is Acuna team's best bench player, and instead you get to use Merrill Kelly on the bench for your team.

 

 

 

 

 

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Doing these exercises has really made me think about how I'm giving two-way ohtani the benefit of the doubt, tbh.  Yes, you get that extra roster spot, but you also can't use Ohtani batter when he pitches, unlike when he's split up into two.  Really, this is how the value breakdown should be:

Two way Ohtani:

Having a starter quality player that is equivalent to the worst version of Ohtani (ie pitcher) instead of the worst starter for the Acuna team  + Having an additional bench spot on your team with the value of the Acuna teams worst starter - the value difference between Acuna's hitting and Ohtani's hitting- the value of ohtani's hitting on every day he pitches (because he can't hit and pitch at the same time).

Split up ohtani:

Having a starter quality player that is equivalent to the worst version of Ohtani (ie pitcher) instead of the worst starter for the Acuna team  + having a bench upgrade over the Acuna team that is the value of [Acuna team's worst starter - Acuna team's worst bench player] - the value difference between Acuna's hitting and Ohtani's pitching

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4 minutes ago, bunnyzclan said:

Dafuq is going on here. Why are the arguments all over the place. Lmao

tl;dr I got prickly at being told I am "incapable of understanding" something and now am on a quest to prove that I am correct.  While two other guys are on quest to "prove" that the statement was justified 

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3 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

The brain power poured into this thread could have cured cancer.

Or at least serve as a dissertation in a Statistics course.

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17 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Or at least serve as a dissertation in a Statistics course.

I remember my statistics professor wearing a shirt to class that said: "Statistics is p-hat"

I immediately withdrew.

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9 minutes ago, sasnumberonefan said:

Another 115+ mph rocket tonight. Yawn. 

You mean the hardest hit homer in the majors so far this season?  Yes, yawn-worthy.

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Lots of interesting stuff going on, as there should be given Otani's uniqueness.  

As far as WAR goes, for MVP purposes I think we should pretty clearly use WAR based on actual outcomes.

The award in my mind, and I think most minds, is for the de facto MVP. Not for the hypothetical MVP, or the guy who would have been MVP without bad luck.

So, if Smith hits several wall scrapers and gets lucky on his home runs, that doesn't count against him because the home runs counted and helped his team.  They were valuable.  If Jones hit a bunch of rockets that just went foul, and was robbed of a couple homeruns by the outfielder, too bad, better luck next year.  

In this instance, Ohtani has done what he had to do to have a low ERA. Luck, skill, or both, he created the value. 

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Has anyone been attempting to sell Ohtani(hitter)? I cant help but think he's going to hit the IL at some point so I continuously attempt to field offers. What do we think his value is at this point? I got declined when I offered him for Freeman a couple weeks ago but I doubt id even consider that trade at this point. 

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53 minutes ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

Has anyone been attempting to sell Ohtani(hitter)? I cant help but think he's going to hit the IL at some point so I continuously attempt to field offers. What do we think his value is at this point? I got declined when I offered him for Freeman a couple weeks ago but I doubt id even consider that trade at this point. 

I'm enjoying the ride.

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Just looked it up and nobody has ever done 50 hrs and 20 steals before, so add that to the list.  

Obviously he's probably not going to do it, but if he stays healthy he should give it a decent run.

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3 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

Just looked it up and nobody has ever done 50 hrs and 20 steals before, so add that to the list.  

Obviously he's probably not going to do it, but if he stays healthy he should give it a decent run.

Why won't he do it? Because he's hitting 60?

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3 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

Just looked it up and nobody has ever done 50 hrs and 20 steals before, so add that to the list.  

Obviously he's probably not going to do it, but if he stays healthy he should give it a decent run.

Willie Mays

1955 24 NYG NL 152 670 580 123 185 18 13 51 127 24 4 79 60 .319 .400 .659 1.059 174 382 12 4 0 7 13 *8 AS,MVP-4
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4 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

Just looked it up and nobody has ever done 50 hrs and 20 steals before, so add that to the list.  

Obviously he's probably not going to do it, but if he stays healthy he should give it a decent run.

Yelich had a good shot at this in 2019 before his injury in early September.

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11 hours ago, The 7th Beatles said:

What a slacker on June 22nd 

 

Well he posted that at the exact right moment.

Another interesting WAR/MVP issue not just for Ohtani, but in general.  As much as a massive blow up like this screws you in roto, IRL it is just one game. How should it be measured, or regarded?

Are there certain pitchers who just punt a game occasionally, and are excellent the rest of the time?

Like, say 2 guys have 4.00 eras. One is just a decent SP day in and day out. The other is an ace who gets nuked once or twice a year.  is this a real pattern in the long term? If so, who is more valuable?

 

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