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Josh Bell 2021 Outlook


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Projected to hit 4th behind the trio of Turner/Schwarber/Soto, Bell will have plenty of RBI opportunities in front of him. I'm sure he will bounce back in DC from his miserable Covid-20 season but how much of a bounce back are we talking about? I don't believe he will ever come close to that 2019 season especially now that MLB is talking about deadening the baseballs this year. Even if they weren't talking about doing it 2019 will be an outlier for him. I think Roto Champ's projections are fair .257/.344/..468 25 HR, 85 RBI. I think he has a good chance at finishing in the mid 90's to low 100s but 85 is a nice RBI floor to hope for. If you can snag him as your CI you are doing excellent. 

Optimistic view: 

Victor Robles has a breakout year and forces himself into the 2 hole moving Schwarber into a more traditional 5 hole spot in the lineup for a man of his size. Runners will be on base all year and Schwarber's big bat will provide excellent lineup protection for Bell which will lead to more RBI opportunities and run scoring chances. He mashes Righties at a .290 clip and finds a way to bat .240-.250 against lefties like he did in 2017 and 2018. 

Pessimistic view:

He doesn't find his power stroke and at the same time he continues to bat around the mendoza line against lefties as a RHB and eventually gets moved down the order while batting .230-ish overall with mediocre power and his 2020 strikeout rate (140K pace) remains the same. 

  

 

Edited by tonycpsu
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Thread is too buried for the season he is about to have

He's had 1 good half season his whole career... And we are blaming COVID??? 😆 Look I'm optimistic with Bell especially out of PNC, but he literally had a good 1st half in 19 and done nothing else

I’m heavily invested. With Robles, Turner, and Soto hitting in front of him, he’s my pick to lead the NL in RBIs. I can’t seem to find where I read it but supposedly he changed his swing last year and

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He has stated that a big reason for his struggles was the fact that players were unable to watch video during games and in between at bats in '20.  It has already been confirmed that players will be able to access video in '21.  I really like him for a modest bounce back and like the Roto champ projection above as a good baseline.

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For a moment I thought my time machine worked and took me back to 2011! I would have told myself back then to pick Trevor Story and Bichette Jr..

Anyways, back to Bell, can't believe he was just drafted in 2011; it seems like he's been in the league forever. My biggest concern as @Cdub2k pointed out with Bell is the fact that Manfraud is at it again and want to manipulate the game by alter the baseball (again!). 

Bell's average home run distance in 2020 was 405 feet versus 411 in 2019. While the average distance was not a huge drop, his max home run distance was 474 feet in 2019, while in 2020, that number fell to 428 feet. 

Bell's EV dropped to 91.7 from a career high of 92.4 and somehow he had one of the lowest, if not the lowest LA of his carrier at 5.9. 

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Agreed that the roto champ projection is fair; I have a hard time thinking he will hit more than 25 HR.

 

Edited by AF25
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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Josh Bell 2021 Outlook
  • 1 month later...
1 minute ago, hard1 said:

Thread is too buried for the season he is about to have

I am shocked there isn't more talk about him given how great he's been in the Spring.  I know he royally sucked for a season and a half, but the ability didn't just all of a sudden vanish and he's in a great lineup spot.

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I’m heavily invested. With Robles, Turner, and Soto hitting in front of him, he’s my pick to lead the NL in RBIs. I can’t seem to find where I read it but supposedly he changed his swing last year and now has gone back to his previous swing from 2019. I think he’s going to be one of those guys everyone looks back on at the end of year and say “why didn’t we see this coming?”

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I don't know if this will become a thorn in the side for Bell owners but Ryan Zimmerman has been having a fantastic ST.  As a long time face of the franchise (along with Strasburg) they may give him more starts @ 1B than expected.

Bell hit .180 vs LHP last year

 

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9 minutes ago, jb_power said:

I don't know if this will become a thorn in the side for Bell owners but Ryan Zimmerman has been having a fantastic ST.  As a long time face of the franchise (along with Strasburg) they may give him more starts @ 1B than expected.

Bell hit .180 vs LHP last year

 

They didn't trade for Bell to not give him every chance to play everyday.  His struggles against LHP is real though, but playing time shouldn't be an issue.

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13 minutes ago, jb_power said:

I don't know if this will become a thorn in the side for Bell owners but Ryan Zimmerman has been having a fantastic ST.  As a long time face of the franchise (along with Strasburg) they may give him more starts @ 1B than expected.

Bell hit .180 vs LHP last year

 

I've had similar thoughts about Bell and Zimmerman has being tearing the cover off the ball this spring.  Plus Bell has burned me in the past.  

If Bell is  still there  late I would still take him with the lineup he is in now.

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I love this guy this year.  The change of scenery should do wonders for him.   He's only 28 and has played all his home games in that death for hitters park in Pittsburgh.  He was a top 30 prospect in baseball and hit over .300 at A+, AA, and AAA in the minors.  I could be wrong, but I think in DC he'll be  the guy we saw for the better part of 2019.. I made sure to draft him in my two 1B league.  

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7 minutes ago, hard1 said:

His spring was blistering it will come. Soto has missed time is not helping 

Will it ? If we’re banking one spring numbers we’re probably in trouble. 

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I know can't count spring numbers but the year before covid he killed it and had a breakout. Last year a wash spring set a reminder dude can mash. Better options I won't tell you to hold. But in my leagues waiver wire 1st baseman are trash.

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9 hours ago, hard1 said:

I know can't count spring numbers but the year before covid he killed it and had a breakout. Last year a wash spring set a reminder dude can mash. Better options I won't tell you to hold. But in my leagues waiver wire 1st baseman are trash.

Jesús Aguilar

Get him now

Edited by summersoff7
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Small Sample Size Theater presents; Josh Bell's Launch Angle

-.3

It looks like he's still hitting the ball fairly hard (94 EV & 111.4 Max EV), but just hammering everything straight into the dirt.  Unfortunately, this is in line with what was happening last year.

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5 hours ago, 89Topps said:

Small Sample Size Theater presents; Josh Bell's Launch Angle

-.3

It looks like he's still hitting the ball fairly hard (94 EV & 111.4 Max EV), but just hammering everything straight into the dirt.  Unfortunately, this is in line with what was happening last year.

That’s weird - I watch him regularly and it looks like he’s squaring up line drives, just right at fielders.

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