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AJ Brown 2021 Outlook


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1 hour ago, SuperJoint said:

A very interesting dynamic resulting from the trade is how Jones will mesh with a fellow alpha. Through the years several 'y' receivers have thrived as Julio's "caddy" - Ridley being only the latest. Here you have two guys that have been the 'x' throughout their careers, but both are athletically capable of doing the more precise routes, short yardage stuff that 'y's and 'z's typically do. 

If they hit AJ on slants/quick release plays more often (as we were crying for all year in the 2020 AJB thread) Brown could have his most productive year yet. I think defenses are going to try to zone up as much as possible within 10 YFS and no WR breaks tackles on house calls like AJB.

The Titans should still try to find a semi-respectable WR3 for this to work properly because you have to pencil in Jones missing at least 5-6 games. They are going to be very careful with him to keep him available for December imo.

Reynolds, AJB, Firsker, and Henry will be the biggest benefit of the trade. 

 

We lined Corey Davis up in Y a lot after AJB basically **** on him as a rookie. AJB is at home at every position. 

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1 hour ago, cashvillesent said:

 

Why?

Because this is what the fantasy community does. "OMG, this guy missed some games. He's soft and injury prone. He's definitely going to get hurt and miss games again."

Never mind the fact that every single NFL player with an actual career gets hurt and misses games at some point. "Injury prone" is a completely meaningless term. Jones could absolutely play 17 games this season. He could also suffer a season ending injury in week 2. That's the NFL.

Stop factoring injuries into your fantasy evaluation. Unless we're talking about CJ Prosise or something, where the guy literally can't get through a string of practices without getting hurt. 

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6 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

.

The Titans should still try to find a semi-respectable WR3 for this to work properly because you have to pencil in Jones missing at least 5-6 games. They are going to be very careful with him to keep him available for December imo.

Factor in 5+ missed games for a guy that’s missed 5+ games twice in his 10 year career.

Alright...

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10 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

 They are going to be very careful with him to keep him available for December imo.

this ain't the NBA ... no "load management" allowed - each game is crucial to them setting up potential home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  if he rolls outta bed, he plays. 

REPEAT: THIS IS NOT THE NBA

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

this ain't the NBA ... no "load management" allowed - each game is crucial to them setting up potential home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  if he rolls outta bed, he plays. 

REPEAT: THIS IS NOT THE NBA


nailed it again. Titans could really use home field advantage throughout the playoffs if they wanna make a super bowl. Vrabel knows this well.

 

All hands on deck.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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Question for those worried about Julio hurting AJ Brown: How bad was Julio for Calvin Ridley’s production last year? 
 

If you thought AJB was efficient before, wait till he’s got every team’s second best cornerback trying to cover him. 

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12 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


nailed it again. Titans could really use home field advantage throughout the playoffs if they wanna make a super bowl. Vrabel knows this well.

 

All hands on deck.

i love how they decided to push the chips into the middle of the table ... serves notice to a very stacked AFC that the organization realizes the window is wide open for them - they were a viable contender prior to, now you gotta consider them the favorite. 

i really believe KC takes a step back this year, and will be challenged by the Chargers for the division. 

the Bison and Ravens look to be most formidable ... then you have squads like the Dolts, Stillers, Fish, Brownies - all who could surprise with the right breaks. 

(well, scratch the Stillers kinda - Tomlin's a knob)

oh, and the Hoodie lurks. always. 

like i said, the most stacked i can remember it being - and them Titans just pushed "all in!"

AFC 'chip game in Tennessee would make all the difference - hey, flip side is NO EXCUSES this year ... there will be pressure, but i believe they will rise above it. 

banner effin' year incoming. 

🤴

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

i love how they decided to push the chips into the middle of the table ... serves notice to a very stacked AFC that the organization realizes the window is wide open for them - they were a viable contender prior to, now you gotta consider them the favorite. 

i really believe KC takes a step back this year, and will be challenged by the Chargers for the division. 

the Bison and Ravens look to be most formidable ... then you have squads like the Dolts, Stillers, Fish, Brownies - all who could surprise with the right breaks. 

(well, scratch the Stillers kinda - Tomlin's a knob)

oh, and the Hoodie lurks. always. 

like i said, the most stacked i can remember it being - and them Titans just pushed "all in!"

AFC 'chip game in Tennessee would make all the difference - hey, flip side is NO EXCUSES this year ... there will be pressure, but i believe they will rise above it. 

banner effin' year incoming. 

🤴

 

The defense has got to b a working defense.

 

Wont matter how good Tits offense gets... the defense was an embarrasement. 

 

Farley looks promising though. Titans need a lockdown CB. He might be it.

Edited by cashvillesent
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5 minutes ago, cashvillesent said:

The defense has got to b a working defense.

 

Wont matter how good Tits offense gets... the defense was an embarrasement. 

 

Farley looks promising though. Titans need a lockdown CB. He might be it.

faiir enuff, and this would be better served in the Titans thread proper, but ...

the reason i said the conference was stacked is because there is no legit powerhouse - all those trams have their share of weaknesses, as well - good teams, not great. 

all on preseason paper, of course ... but the addition of Julii does serve notice - all spec at this point, but i will be backing this one where it counts the most: 💲 my wallet 💲

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AJ will get fewer targets with Julio around.  But he will do as much, or more, with those targets.  Few if any double teams, maybe the 2nd best corner, safeties rolled to Jones' side.

I like him a lot in standard and TD-heavy leagues.  For full ppr where a nice safe 5-55-0 seems like the goal, go get Jarvis Landry or Greg Ward.

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24 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

AJ will get fewer targets with Julio around.  But he will do as much, or more, with those targets.  Few if any double teams, maybe the 2nd best corner, safeties rolled to Jones' side.

I like him a lot in standard and TD-heavy leagues.  For full ppr where a nice safe 5-55-0 seems like the goal, go get Jarvis Landry or Greg Ward.

AJ can go 3/70 and equal that, and also provides a ceiling those cats cannot touch. 

kinda flawed here, CPO Sharkey ... i'm not seeing this at all 🤔

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4 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Tennessee got Julio Jones?  Jones is tough to handle for opposing defenses.  He is almost as good as Cooper Kupp.

Kupp had way more fantasy points last season. Julio outscored Kupp by a whopping 4 points in 2019. I've actually been completely vindicated in saying Kupp over Jones the last two years. I would 1000% take Kupp over Jones again this year.

That said, Julio is probably the best WR of his generation and obviously was the superior WR in his prime, duh. 

But for fantasy, right now (and in the recent past), Kupp over Jones all day. 

 

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2 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

AJ can go 3/70 and equal that, and also provides a ceiling those cats cannot touch. 

kinda flawed here, CPO Sharkey ... i'm not seeing this at all 🤔

Sarcasm red flag should be added in to aid the reader.  Mah bad.

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Kupp had way more fantasy points last season. Julio outscored Kupp by a whopping 4 points in 2019. I've actually been completely vindicated in saying Kupp over Jones the last two years. I would 1000% take Kupp over Jones again this year.

That said, Julio is probably the best WR of his generation and obviously was the superior WR in his prime, duh. 

But for fantasy, right now (and in the recent past), Kupp over Jones all day. 

 

I knew you would take that bait.  But we are in the AJ Brown thread.  Do you think Cooper Kupp is better than AJ Brown, too?

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26 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Sarcasm red flag should be added in to aid the reader.  Mah bad.

oh ... nononononoNO

very well played, CPO ✌

that one's on me, chap - i am now perma-banning myself from this thread as punishment. 

looks like i am in horrific preseason form here - dreadful. 

we out this BISHop. 

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@pastorofmuppets2

No, good sir, the fault is mine.  My take on AJ Brown was straightforward, but then I switched gears to take a shot at my much-beloved full ppr brethren in the final paragraph.  Such an abrupt shift was too big of an ask even of our most sophisticated forumpersons.  

Mea Culpa.

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2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I knew you would take that bait.  But we are in the AJ Brown thread.  Do you think Cooper Kupp is better than AJ Brown, too?

As I said last year, I think in a full PPR league, it's close. 

Kupp is going to catch 25 more passes, but total yardage should be similar. I view both guys as elite TD scorers (I view last year as an outlier/result of Goff being embarrassingly bad), so it should be a matter of personal preference. Brown gets you more razzle dazzle, Kupp should be a little more consistent. I would expect both to finish with similar fantasy totals at the end of the year. 

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2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I knew you would take that bait.  But we are in the AJ Brown thread.  Do you think Cooper Kupp is better than AJ Brown, too?

As I said last year, I think in a full PPR league, it's close. 

Kupp is going to catch 25 more passes, but total yardage should be similar. I view both guys as elite TD scorers (I view last year as an outlier/result of Goff being embarrassingly bad), so it should be a matter of personal preference. Brown gets you more razzle dazzle, Kupp should be a little more consistent. I would expect both to finish with similar fantasy totals at the end of the year. 

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4 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

For full ppr where a nice safe 5-55-0 seems like the goal, go get Jarvis Landry or Greg Ward.

3 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

AJ can go 3/70 and equal that, and also provides a ceiling those cats cannot touch

 

Lol?  In what world?

This is less about talking down AJ, and more about the disrespect for Landry.

AJ is young and could have definitely taken the next step, (may still) but Julio seems to cap his ceiling, on a yearly basis anyways.  Maybe on a weekly basis, if Julio is getting all the attention, AJ can beast out, similar to Lockett/Metcalf or Julio/Ridley in the past.

But in every single statistically category but one (TDs) Landry wipes the floor with AJB. (Granted 7 years vs 2, but that's all we have)

Landry's career low in receptions(72) is better than AJs career high(70).
Landry's career low in targets(101), is just 5 less than AJ's career high(106).
AJ has never broken 1100 yards, Landry has three times.
AJ has never had more yards, receptions, targets, or TDs than Landry in any single game.
AJ has never had more fantasy points than Landry in any single game or season so far.
AJ has missed 2 games last year, Landry has missed 1 game in his entire 7 year career.

They're very different WRs on the field, rather futile to even compare them in the real NFL, but in fantasy, points are points.  Maybe one day AJ can provide some type of statistical analysis that supports a higher ceiling, but thus far the only argument that anyone has for his ceiling is "Well he's bigger, taller, a much better TD threat, and a true #1 WR."  All valid, except that Julio kinda negates the last one, and that the other 3 can be said of 90% of WRs relative to Landry, who will never put together the career he has.  Tannenhill is better than Baker though and not even the Titans run as much as the Browns.  So in a conversation based on ceilings and floors of PPR leagues, the above shows why AJ's ceiling is not (yet) what Landry's is, and I don't think I need to waste time explaining that Landry's floor is significantly higher.  AJ has had six 1 catch games in his 2 years so far.  The first, last, and only time Landry ever caught a single ball, was the literal first game of his NFL career (he was a rookie/returner) in Week 1 of 2014.

In an attempt to stay on topic, AJ Brown's current ADP is mid 2nd.  Julio trade hasn't allowed this to settle yet, but 2nd round is insanity.  AJB would be a DND for me in the first 3 rounds.  In the 4th, I could see an argument being made, but it will be a fairly simple question, who would you rather invest a 4th round pick on, Julio or AJB?  Do you want a 1a/1b receiver on a team that runs as much as the Titans, that likely will be leading most of their games, and closing them out with Henry?  Or would you prefer to lean on Golladay garbage time on the Giants?  Amari in DAL?  If you're interested in 1a/1b scenarios, why not Lockett in the 5th? WR8, WR13, and WR16 the past 3 years.   Theilan if we call him 1b to Jefferson, WR7 last year, also in the 5th.  How confident are you that AJ Brown/Tannehill/Titans produce a better *fantasy* WR duo than SEA or MIN?  DAL, CAR, or PIT?  Where do you draw the line?

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Brown is going to be a pain in the a** to own this year.

He’s already been dependent on big plays which is fine if you account for most of your teams receiving yards but now he’s a big play dependent WR on a run first team while not being a clear cut #1 (More like 1A).

Not sure if this flat out slides him out of my WR1 rankings but it’s damn close. Probably in the 11-14 range now. 

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10 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Question for those worried about Julio hurting AJ Brown: How bad was Julio for Calvin Ridley’s production last year? 
 

If you thought AJB was efficient before, wait till he’s got every team’s second best cornerback trying to cover him. 

The falcons don't run the ball like the titans. The team stays about the same with Julio Jones in my opinion. Someone stats will take a hit....will it be Henry or brown.

 

 

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