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Zac Gallen 2021 Outlook


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Industry experts seem to unilaterally agree that he's a "very good sp2" with the possible upside of an sp1.  He supposedly throws 4 above average pitches.  Looking at the stat cast data, his underlying are not eye popping,  to underwhelming.  Especially for velocity and spin.  A lot of projections have him as a higher 3s ERA type of guy.  He also plays in a very tough division with 2 elite lineups and Coors.   He was also traded for Jazz Chisholm rather recently.   Not things that I want from a high draft pick, but that's why we are all here...to get information.

 

Thoughts for this season?

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Some good news   https://twitter.com/NicoCiva1/status/1374082025615941634?s=08

He had a little rust, but in general it was a very solid debut for Gallen. You sort of have to watch him work to really appreciate what a tactician he is. He won't wow you with his FA readings bu

You’re entitled to be skeptical of Gallen but the kind of tone you take on one of the top young SPs is so surprising it’s almost refreshing.   1. So what he was once traded for Chisholm? Lot

While Gallen has been good over his 150 major league innings, split over '19 and '20, I think he is due for some regression.  His BABIP and LOB% are not supported by his minor league numbers and with a return to league average should raise his ERA considerably.  I do like his four pitch mix.  His Changeup gets elite WHIFFs and he mixes in his Curve and Cutter/slider well.  While he does strike guys out at a good clip, he also walks a good amount.  

When all this is considered, I think he is a risk at ADP 40.  While I think the Ks will be there, I think his other numbers come back down to earth.  There just isn't much room for profit at that ADP and I think there's a good chance that he regresses.   

Edited by damana
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This guy has reached the “overrated” tier for me.  He’s a good pitcher don’t get me wrong but a lot of people considering him to be a true ace and I’d like one more full season of production before I put him in that tier.  I’m also kinda concerned about his wacky delivery and his Health

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I have rostered him the last 2 seasons and he hasn't ever been overrated, at least back then.  He isn't overpowering or a strikeout king, rather a smaller pitcher who wears glasses and I felt those optics underrated him.  However an ADP of 40 is higher than I expected.  I would have thought 50-70, however he is very steady SP2 in my opinion who has good ERA & WHIP but won't get a ton of K or W.  I feel he is very consistent and hope he can continue doing well as he is only 25.  

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6 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

Industry experts seem to unilaterally agree that he's a "very good sp2" with the possible upside of an sp1.  He supposedly throws 4 above average pitches.  Looking at the stat cast data, his underlying are not eye popping,  to underwhelming.  Especially for velocity and spin.  A lot of projections have him as a higher 3s ERA type of guy.  He also plays in a very tough division with 2 elite lineups and Coors.   He was also traded for Jazz Chisholm rather recently.   Not things that I want from a high draft pick, but that's why we are all here...to get information.

 

Thoughts for this season?


You’re entitled to be skeptical of Gallen but the kind of tone you take on one of the top young SPs is so surprising it’s almost refreshing.

 

1. So what he was once traded for Chisholm? Lots of players who ended up successful in the majors were once traded for prospects that didn’t pan out

 

2. He doesn’t “supposedly” have 4 above average pitches. He throws 4 pitches that have double digit swinging strike percentages, with each of those swinging strike numbers being above average for the pitch type.

 

3. Statcast data is something I value for hitters. For SPs, I prefer to look at things like K%, BB%, FIP, SwStr%, etc. Statcast also doesn’t have metric for SPs that know how to properly sequence their pitches and set batters up.

 

4. He might play in a division with potent offenses but that has been the case in 2019 and 2020 and he’s handled it just fine. 

the proof is in the pudding - no other SP has put up 23 straight QSs in their first taste of big league action (i.e. he owns that MLB record). That doesn’t mean he’s the GOAT pitcher, but those kind of results don’t happen by luck. Dude has skills.


TLDR; don’t let the glasses and a lack of 99mph velocity fool you. Gallen has a deep repertoire of pitches that get swing and misses and he knows how to use them

Edited by UberRebel
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11 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

Industry experts seem to unilaterally agree that he's a "very good sp2" with the possible upside of an sp1.  He supposedly throws 4 above average pitches.  Looking at the stat cast data, his underlying are not eye popping,  to underwhelming.  Especially for velocity and spin.  A lot of projections have him as a higher 3s ERA type of guy.  He also plays in a very tough division with 2 elite lineups and Coors.   He was also traded for Jazz Chisholm rather recently.   Not things that I want from a high draft pick, but that's why we are all here...to get information.

 

Thoughts for this season?

He will never be a statcast darling, but he is just one of those guys who has 4 pitches that are "good enough" and can command and sequence those pitchers at a PHD level. He also seems like someone you would assume is throwing 88 - 90 MPH, but his average FB is 93 MPH, its not like he doesn't have enough stuff to be elite. He's been dominant two seasons in a row and showed some improvement with his control last season (if you read my posts on him last year this was my sticking point that he would almost surely improve there).

His ADP of 40 may seem lofty at first glance, but that is more a demonstration of how SP values have been heightened this year than on Gallen individually. By NFBC data, if you look at the 3 pitchers taken ahead of him (Flaherty, Kershaw, Woodruff) and the 3 behind him (Maeda, Snell, Glasnow), his price seems very reasonable to me.

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15 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

His ADP of 40 may seem lofty at first glance, but that is more a demonstration of how SP values have been heightened this year than on Gallen individually. By NFBC data, if you look at the 3 pitchers taken ahead of him (Flaherty, Kershaw, Woodruff) and the 3 behind him (Maeda, Snell, Glasnow), his price seems very reasonable to me.

I take all those guys over Gallen.  I don't hate the guy but he's gotten lucky in two SSS seasons.  Maybe he can continue to have a 84% LOB and sub .270 BABIP, with a fairly high walk rate, but I'm going to let someone else take that chance.  Unless he slips I'm avoiding.

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I’ve also got him in the top 15 SP. If he can improve his command even more, as he’s gradually shown in his short career in the bigs, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish top 10. Not many pitchers in the game have 4 pitches they can throw as well as Gallen can. He may not have the most flashy stuff but this guy is a pitcher in the true sense of the word. He’s got the mental part of the game already which is rare in a young kid. Where and when to throw certain pitches doesn’t often come this early and that’s why you’re seeing the swing and miss stats even though he’s not blowing 95+ past hitters. 

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I'm not sure what's not to like here.  The guy killed the minors and is doing VERY WELL in MLB. 

He's had an era over 3 only one time...and it was 3.64, which is still pretty good!  His k/ip is always above average.  The only category he struggles in is wins...and his era is under 3 on average, so that only proves that he's been on some pretty bad teams.

If he's ever on a good team, he could easily win 17-22 games with his stuff.  Gallen is a winner.

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1 hour ago, 96GOAT said:

I'm not sure what's not to like here.  The guy killed the minors and is doing VERY WELL in MLB. 

He's had an era over 3 only one time...and it was 3.64, which is still pretty good!  His k/ip is always above average.  The only category he struggles in is wins...and his era is under 3 on average, so that only proves that he's been on some pretty bad teams.

If he's ever on a good team, he could easily win 17-22 games with his stuff.  Gallen is a winner.

I love the plAyer....I don’t like the price.

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I dunno.  He is not a really hard thrower so there might be less of a TJ risk.  The reliability counts for something.

He needs to stop throwing the cutter and stick to FB, CU, CH.

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For those mentioning that he walks a lot. Check his minor league numbers. Hes never had major issues with BB%. 1.62 per 9 his last year in minors. Improvements after his rookie year show him heading back to that level.

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6 hours ago, Csiebert5 said:

For those mentioning that he walks a lot. Check his minor league numbers. Hes never had major issues with BB%. 1.62 per 9 his last year in minors. Improvements after his rookie year show him heading back to that level.

It seems he has games where he just loses it.

2019 15 walks in 3 games vs 21 in 12 games 

2020 14 walks in 3 games vs 11 in 9 games 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

I really want to own him, but I likely won't at his current ADP.  If I go with hitters early and am pitching starved by around my 4th pick and he's still there, then maybe I'll consider him. I could definitely see him producing SP1 or SP2 numbers, but I think Gallen is that guy you kinda hope gets taken before you have to consider him before you're simply not sold that he's worth his adp..  

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/14/2021 at 4:51 PM, Fbaseballgod said:

This guy has reached the “overrated” tier for me.  He’s a good pitcher don’t get me wrong but a lot of people considering him to be a true ace and I’d like one more full season of production before I put him in that tier.  I’m also kinda concerned about his wacky delivery and his Health

Aaaand speaking of his health... right forearm soreness.

 

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3 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

"He's been getting treating for 10 days" is the strange part, especially if he did this while hitting. 

Must have kept the injury under wraps until having to officially scratch him from a start. Hopefully since it was swinging a damn bat of all thing it isn't like the typical forearm soreness -> elbow issues path.

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