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Zac Gallen 2021 Outlook


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21 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

For context, Gallen and Syndergaard are both supposed to be back around roughly the same time. Just something to think about when drafting. I'm not saying if both players were healthy that Gallen wouldn't be drafted higher, just trying to put things in perspective. I've personally moved him down to the Luzardo range in my rankings. 

 

It's all speculation but I would think there is less variability about what Gallen will offer upon his return than Syndergaard. In other words I have more confidence Gallen is going to resemble his old self and resume production more quickly.

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What? He threw 147.2 IP in 2017 across 3 minor league levels, 133.1 IP in AA in 2018 and 171.1 IP in 2019 between AAA and MLB. Obviously 2020 was shortened but he didn’t miss a start. Likely head

Encouraging...for who exactly? Dr. James Andrews?

Some good news   https://twitter.com/NicoCiva1/status/1374082025615941634?s=08

I’d be much more optimistic on Gallen than Syndergard, who is expected to return in June. Gallen could be healed in mid April and begin ramping up to be ready in early May. Plus, he’s not coming off TJ. 

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4 hours ago, ryno1980 said:

I’d be much more optimistic on Gallen than Syndergard, who is expected to return in June. Gallen could be healed in mid April and begin ramping up to be ready in early May. Plus, he’s not coming off TJ. 

Mid April?  Early may?  That doesn't sound right.  Everything I've seen has been a month later than that as a best case. 

 

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4 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

Mid April?  Early may?  That doesn't sound right.  Everything I've seen has been a month later than that as a best case. 

 

I haven’t seen any timeline reported because they haven’t released anything on a timeline. But hairline fractures heal in a few weeks.
 

I’m guessing 3 weeks would be best-case scenario for it to heal and a few weeks to ramp up and make a start at Triple-A would bring him back mid-May. 
 

Not sure who said a month later than that. It’s not a common injury so not a lot of past injuries to compare it to.

Even if it’s 8 weeks, that’s sometime in the second half of May and not the month later best-case for Syndergaard and the other TJ comeback guys.

 

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10 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

he's fallen to the 11th round in online championships the past two days (20 drafts, 12 team 5x5 no IL).  Honestly, I thought it'd be more.  

If you're drafting in a league with an IL I think he's approaching bargain territory. He's still allowed to toss the ball! I think the fact he's not totally shut down is a significant indicator as to the severity of the injury and his ability to ramp back up.

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6 minutes ago, Mikewastaken said:

If you're drafting in a league with an IL I think he's approaching bargain territory. He's still allowed to toss the ball! I think the fact he's not totally shut down is a significant indicator as to the severity of the injury and his ability to ramp back up.

He was facing an innings limit already - I think you can’t count on him to go deep into games, no matter when he is able to return.

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3 hours ago, BMcP said:

He was facing an innings limit already - I think you can’t count on him to go deep into games, no matter when he is able to return.

Deep is a relative term these days. He went 6 or more in 9 of 12 starts in the shortened season. No he has another shortened season. He should be fairly reliable for six inning starts. 

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3 hours ago, BMcP said:

He was facing an innings limit already - I think you can’t count on him to go deep into games, no matter when he is able to return.

I don’t get it.  Wouldn’t the 8 weeks off mean he’s NOT pitching innings?  Can’t those innings be transferred to June, July, August?   I’m getting the sense that he was going to pitch 150, and it’s as if that’s gone down to 100, I just don’t understand why.

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22 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

Deep is a relative term these days. He went 6 or more in 9 of 12 starts in the shortened season. No he has another shortened season. He should be fairly reliable for six inning starts. 

He had more QSs in 2020 than my other top starters Scherzer and Ryu.  Picked him up in the 10th round and I love this guy. I hope his late start means he's pitching for the fantasy playoffs.  

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28 minutes ago, CardiacDO said:

He had more QSs in 2020 than my other top starters Scherzer and Ryu.  Picked him up in the 10th round and I love this guy. I hope his late start means he's pitching for the fantasy playoffs.  

You bring up a good point. Arizona won’t be in the playoff hunt. They could shut him down early, but now if he misses 6 weeks (or 6-8 starts), maybe they don’t feel the need to shut him down early and want to step him up toward 140 innings as they prepare for a bigger workload in 2022.

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29 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I don’t get it.  Wouldn’t the 8 weeks off mean he’s NOT pitching innings?  Can’t those innings be transferred to June, July, August?   I’m getting the sense that he was going to pitch 150, and it’s as if that’s gone down to 100, I just don’t understand why.

Gallen himself said it would be “crazy” for him to even double his innings this year (140), so I doubt 150 was ever a realistic option.  It’s not as simple as saying, “Well, he’s only available for 2/3 of a season, let’s have him pitch 2/3 longer every start.”

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Like with a lot of guys this year, It’s more likely they sit him one week in July and skip a start in August than he makes 22 5-inning starts. In other words, for fantasy purpose, we will know we need to make other arrangements for guys. 
 

I think his per-start innings counts will look like 2020. 

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The guesses I've seen on the Twitterverse seem to be a 6 to 8 week time table.  With pitchers and arms, I always expect more than what the teams initially suggest.  Generally, teams err on the side of caution with arms.  Plus it's not just the time it takes to heal.  It's the time it takes to build up arm strength too.  A bullpen session, sim game, and 2-3 rehab starts can mean 2 to 3 weeks of build up without any setbacks.

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This is prob the best guess I have seen, though keep in mind her injury algorithm is ultra conservative imo:

Snippet from The Athletic--Virginia Zakas of Inside Injuries (4 days ago)

"Zac Gallen has been diagnosed with a hairline stress fracture of his right lateral forearm at the radial head. This means that there is a small fracture at the radial head, which is the knobby point at the elbow where the radius connects. Gallen is allowed to do a little bit of throwing while that bone heals, but it is going to need around eight weeks to fully heal. This is a very unique injury for a baseball player, so the team isn’t exactly sure what his recovery timeline will look like."

"Ideally, Gallen will only do light throwing over the next month and then slowly ramp up over the next four weeks. If he does too much too fast he will put stress on the bone that it can’t handle. It’s important to be cautious now so it can heal without causing a larger fracture that needs more time. Gallen is fortunate that the crack is small enough that he can still throw. It will allow a much shorter ramp up period once he is cleared to throw all of his pitches. Gallen said that his curveball was the pitch causing the most pain, so that will be the last pitch he works back in. He should target a return sometime in mid-to-late May."

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Gallen (forearm) threw a 39-pitch bullpen session Wednesday but did not throw any curveballs, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.

The Diamondbacks are hopeful that Gallen can next pitch in a simulated game in the next few days. The lack of curveballs is significant because that's the pitch on which he felt the pain in his forearm previously.

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60 pitch sim game today. Don’t think it’ll be June as some were suggesting. Betting on May 1 return pretty confidently barring a setback. 

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4 hours ago, ryno1980 said:

60 pitch sim game today. Don’t think it’ll be June as some were suggesting. Betting on May 1 return pretty confidently barring a setback. 

Assuming an early-to-mid May return, does anyone wager to guess when he hits his inning cap (barring any other time missed) — say early September, or late August?  The value lost could be very minimal considering he probably wasn’t going to make 30 starts anyways. 

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3 minutes ago, Wytchclt55 said:

80-pitch sim game was scheduled for yesterday.  Anyone with news on how it went?

Nick Piecoro only reported that he'd be throwing it, but nothing further yet. Probably get more info today. Watch his Twitter feed

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3 hours ago, Wytchclt55 said:

80-pitch sim game was scheduled for yesterday.  Anyone with news on how it went?

I thought roto world blurb said Wednesday, but I saw on twitter that it was gonna be today actually.

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Zac Gallen (forearm) tossed 67 pitches in a camp game Wednesday in Arizona.

MLB.com's Steve Gilbert notes that Gallen "threw at least one curveball in each of his innings" and reported no discomfort during or after the outing. The curve is what was giving him trouble this spring, after he suffered a hairline stress fracture in his right forearm when he mishit a ball in a batting cage. It sounds like the 25-year-old should definitely be ready to join the Diamondbacks' starting rotation before the end of April.

 
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AZ beat writers reporting:

 

Madison Bumgarner will start Monday. Tuesday's starter is TBA, but Torey Lovullo says "it's a possibility" that it could be Zac Gallen.

 

stay tuned 

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8 minutes ago, WTP333 said:

AZ beat writers reporting:

 

Madison Bumgarner will start Monday. Tuesday's starter is TBA, but Torey Lovullo says "it's a possibility" that it could be Zac Gallen.

 

stay tuned 

Yeah...not starting until he gets a few innings under his belt.

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