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Keston Hiura 2021 Outlook


Cesare13
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48 minutes ago, mudrummer said:

Y’all remember that time Trevor Story got demoted by the Rockies???

Ya'll remember earlier in the thread when I said it wasn't a direct comparison? Shouldn't need to be explained why SS get longer leashes in the majors over 1B.

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On 4/9/2021 at 11:24 AM, 89Topps said:

Goodness.  I hope it's an 8 team league.

Also funny you dropped him the day after he hit a 100 mph double and scored a run.

Hope you didn't hang on to this bum too long. I've been enjoying ample production from waiver wire batters since this post on April 9th.

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11 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Nah, but shallow leagues sure. I'm guessing we see him up in 1-2 months. 

That seems like a really long time for them to deal with vogelbach.

I’m heavily invested in hiura so I have to be optimistic, but you gotta remember his problem right now is timing and that’s it.  I would bet a lot that he comes back in 2-3 weeks and has ether drastically reduced or eliminated the leg kick he has been using.  I understand for redraft he’s pretty dead to the world, but even then he needs to be rostered he second he gets called up again.  In dynasty, hold tight and don’t let him go for nothing.

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15 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

That seems like a really long time for them to deal with vogelbach.

I’m heavily invested in hiura so I have to be optimistic, but you gotta remember his problem right now is timing and that’s it.  I would bet a lot that he comes back in 2-3 weeks and has ether drastically reduced or eliminated the leg kick he has been using.  I understand for redraft he’s pretty dead to the world, but even then he needs to be rostered he second he gets called up again.  In dynasty, hold tight and don’t let him go for nothing.

Thing is they don’t have to necessarily keep Vogelbach at 1B, they can move Shaw there or sign someone. 
 

My fear with Hiura is that it isn’t a timing issue - it’s a hole in his swing. Sure that can be fixed as well but it isn’t always and it’s a lot harder to figure out than timing. He has never shown the ability to handle elite velocity high in the zone. And any success in AAA could easily be a mirage because there isn’t a lot of consistent elite velocity high in the zone in AAA so I could see him being successful getting called up and going straight back to struggling. 
 

There is an economic term for being heavily invested in something and unwilling to sell at a loss - “sunk cost fallacy.” There is a lot of that in the thread. I get it, it sucks to have a player bust when you hoped he would take the next step forward. But at this point I would take .50 or even .30 on the dollar. 
 

I am a full sell low on Hiura. 

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2 hours ago, AdamPA1006 said:

Hope you didn't hang on to this bum too long. I've been enjoying ample production from waiver wire batters since this post on April 9th.

Not everyone’s league is shallow enough for that. 

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59 minutes ago, mudrummer said:

Thing is they don’t have to necessarily keep Vogelbach at 1B, they can move Shaw there or sign someone. 
 

My fear with Hiura is that it isn’t a timing issue - it’s a hole in his swing. Sure that can be fixed as well but it isn’t always and it’s a lot harder to figure out than timing. He has never shown the ability to handle elite velocity high in the zone. And any success in AAA could easily be a mirage because there isn’t a lot of consistent elite velocity high in the zone in AAA so I could see him being successful getting called up and going straight back to struggling. 
 

There is an economic term for being heavily invested in something and unwilling to sell at a loss - “sunk cost fallacy.” There is a lot of that in the thread. I get it, it sucks to have a player bust when you hoped he would take the next step forward. But at this point I would take .50 or even .30 on the dollar. 
 

I am a full sell low on Hiura. 

Do you have any data to back up, “...there isn’t a lot of consistent, elite velocity high in the zone in AAA...” or is this just an educated guess? 

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3 hours ago, AdamPA1006 said:

Hope you didn't hang on to this bum too long. I've been enjoying ample production from waiver wire batters since this post on April 9th.

Ha, yea. I was wrong on this one. Still think one week is way too short to make a drop like that. You’ll be wrong more often than right.

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14 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

Ha, yea. I was wrong on this one. Still think one week is way too short to make a drop like that. You’ll be wrong more often than right.

Yeah.  May as well take a week or two and see how he's hitting in the minors if your league settings let you.  Best case, he fixes something huge that someone's noticed and comes back to be a contributor.  Worst case, you're diving through the dumpster in 2 weeks again for the same level of scraps.

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2 hours ago, BackyardBaseball said:

That seems like a really long time for them to deal with vogelbach.

I’m heavily invested in hiura so I have to be optimistic, but you gotta remember his problem right now is timing and that’s it.  I would bet a lot that he comes back in 2-3 weeks and has ether drastically reduced or eliminated the leg kick he has been using.  I understand for redraft he’s pretty dead to the world, but even then he needs to be rostered he second he gets called up again.  In dynasty, hold tight and don’t let him go for nothing.

Yeah I kinda just made up 1-2 months. i assume they want to see him have sustained success in AAA. He needs to rework something, and who knows if that can happen mid season.  Also for keeper and dynasty leagues, it's brutal because this might be his last year with 2b eligibility.  The offensive bar is going to be a lot higher at 1b next year. 

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 We don't know if he will or will not fix problems with his swing, but if the default assumption is no, is very cynical

Scouts can be wrong all the time, but he is absolute a priority investment for the brewers for his pedigree and previous signs of hitting the crap out of the ball. They will try harder then most other hitters to fix his problems because his upside is higher then most others in their system.

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1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:

Yeah.  May as well take a week or two and see how he's hitting in the minors if your league settings let you.  Best case, he fixes something huge that someone's noticed and comes back to be a contributor.  Worst case, you're diving through the dumpster in 2 weeks again for the same level of scraps.

Oh, I think he's droppable NOW.  I was responding to the guy who was taking a victory lap for having dropped him after the first week.  That's an example of good result, poor process.  Should have just not drafted him if that's the case.

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6 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

Oh, I think he's droppable NOW.  I was responding to the guy who was taking a victory lap for having dropped him after the first week.  That's an example of good result, poor process.  Should have just not drafted him if that's the case.

I've seen it in a lot of threads. Olson, Tucker, here.  Lot of people willing to say a guy they drafted and people were high on sucks after 1 month or even much less. We're not playing pandemic ball this year. 6 months is a long time. Unless the guys were later picks, I can't see the reason to give up on someone you liked a lot so early into the season.

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25 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I've seen it in a lot of threads. Olson, Tucker, here.  Lot of people willing to say a guy they drafted and people were high on sucks after 1 month or even much less. We're not playing pandemic ball this year. 6 months is a long time. Unless the guys were later picks, I can't see the reason to give up on someone you liked a lot so early into the season.

Mostly, I agree.  I'm still holding on to Happ, but he, at least still has decent statcast numbers and is mostly still playing.  I'd have a hard time holding on to a guy who isn't even on an MLB roster anymore.

Hiura was dropped in my league, twice, and has cleared waivers and is sitting in free agency.  Anything less than, maybe, a deep 14 teamer, and I don't know that I could see the justification for burning a live roster spot on him indefinitely. 

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2 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Do you have any data to back up, “...there isn’t a lot of consistent, elite velocity high in the zone in AAA...” or is this just an educated guess? 

Based on multiple podcast - specifically with Sporer / Pollock. Their theories are generally a few fold on this:

- Pitchers who can control the upper portion of the zone with velocity are typically elite and move more quickly to the MLB

- Umpires in the minor leagues may call high strikes less frequently and therefore a player who struggles in this portion of the zone can wait for pitches they like a bit better.

For what it's worth Hiura has the 3rd worst contact rate of any player with at least 650 PA's in the past decade (2011-2021). The two players worse than him are Joey Gallo and Keon Broxton. 

The list - worst contact rate, min 650 PA's, 2011-2021:

1. Joey Gallo (59.7%)

2. Keon Broxton (61.4%)

3. Keston Hiura (62.1%)

4. Jorge Alfaro (62.6%)

5. Miguel Sano (63.3%)

6. Junior Lake (63.3%)

7. Adalberto Mondesi (63.9%)

8. Chris Carter (64.6%)

9. Mike Zunino (65.5%)

10. Brandon Lowe (66%)

This is a list of flawed players, sure a few of them are still actively playing. Two are catchers with power - one of those Alfaro drastically improved his contact rate after his first MLB season and currently sits at 68%. Three are players with an elite skill (Gallo / Sano - Power, Mondesi - Speed/Defense).

So if you are a Hiura owner you have to ask what is a reasonable best case scenario - I guess this would be Mondesi with 1/6th of the speed - meaning lower AVG and no SB value? Even if that is the best case what is the percentile outcome there - 80-90%?

You also have to temper that with a reasonable worst case scenario of a Keon Broxton.  

Over 2015/2016 Broxton had 669 PA's in AA and AAA, he hit .277 with 18HR and 57SB. He had a lot of hype, debuted with the (possibly a skillset they like) in 2016 and was a helpful fantasy player with elite speed. .242AVG, 9HR, 23SB over 244 PA's. Over the remainder of his career in the MLB he hit under .200.

Hiura feels Broxtonesque to me. He has excelled against AA/AAA pitching but MLB pitchers found and exploited his weaknesses. Hiura has shown me nothing to suggest he is any different. I expect him to go down to AAA, do well, be called back up and struggle again. I would look to sell at call up. Unlike many players on the list above he doesn't possess an elite skill or shallow position which puts him in a more vulnerable spot. 

 

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1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

Oh, I think he's droppable NOW.  I was responding to the guy who was taking a victory lap for having dropped him after the first week.  That's an example of good result, poor process.  Should have just not drafted him if that's the case.

Yeah dropping a guy you drafted top 60 after a week and then having modest success with a waiver wire guy you hope will continue doesn't seem like a cause to bring out the marching band to me, but what do I know?

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8 minutes ago, mudrummer said:

Based on multiple podcast - specifically with Sporer / Pollock. Their theories are generally a few fold on this:

- Pitchers who can control the upper portion of the zone with velocity are typically elite and move more quickly to the MLB

- Umpires in the minor leagues may call high strikes less frequently and therefore a player who struggles in this portion of the zone can wait for pitches they like a bit better.

For what it's worth Hiura has the 3rd worst contact rate of any player with at least 650 PA's in the past decade (2011-2021). The two players worse than him are Joey Gallo and Keon Broxton. 

The list - worst contact rate, min 650 PA's, 2011-2021:

1. Joey Gallo (59.7%)

2. Keon Broxton (61.4%)

3. Keston Hiura (62.1%)

4. Jorge Alfaro (62.6%)

5. Miguel Sano (63.3%)

6. Junior Lake (63.3%)

7. Adalberto Mondesi (63.9%)

8. Chris Carter (64.6%)

9. Mike Zunino (65.5%)

10. Brandon Lowe (66%)

This is a list of flawed players, sure a few of them are still actively playing. Two are catchers with power - one of those Alfaro drastically improved his contact rate after his first MLB season and currently sits at 68%. Three are players with an elite skill (Gallo / Sano - Power, Mondesi - Speed/Defense).

So if you are a Hiura owner you have to ask what is a reasonable best case scenario - I guess this would be Mondesi with 1/6th of the speed - meaning lower AVG and no SB value? Even if that is the best case what is the percentile outcome there - 80-90%?

You also have to temper that with a reasonable worst case scenario of a Keon Broxton.  

Over 2015/2016 Broxton had 669 PA's in AA and AAA, he hit .277 with 18HR and 57SB. He had a lot of hype, debuted with the (possibly a skillset they like) in 2016 and was a helpful fantasy player with elite speed. .242AVG, 9HR, 23SB over 244 PA's. Over the remainder of his career in the MLB he hit under .200.

Hiura feels Broxtonesque to me. He has excelled against AA/AAA pitching but MLB pitchers found and exploited his weaknesses. Hiura has shown me nothing to suggest he is any different. I expect him to go down to AAA, do well, be called back up and struggle again. I would look to sell at call up. Unlike many players on the list above he doesn't possess an elite skill or shallow position which puts him in a more vulnerable spot. 

 

Thanks. Was curious if there was data to support. A lot of good stuff here, and don’t doubt this is a distinct possibility. I just think there are other potential outcomes as well. Especially considering Hiura has a 50/60FV hit tool, I think more leash is warranted here.

But to we’re also talking fantasy v. real baseball. Flawed players can absolutely be useful for fantasy. And to me worst case is more Odor than Broxton, who washed out of the league quickly.

Odor per 162- .236/.289/.726   28 HR/11 SB

Hiura per 162- .251/.327/.800 32 HR/12 SB

Odor isn’t that exciting, and hasn’t been a very good real life player, but he’s had some very solid fantasy seasons. And again to me I think that’s floor-ish. 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Thanks. Was curious if there was data to support. A lot of good stuff here, and don’t doubt this is a distinct possibility. I just think there are other potential outcomes as well. Especially considering Hiura has a 50/60FV hit tool, I think more leash is warranted here.

But to we’re also talking fantasy v. real baseball. Flawed players can absolutely be useful for fantasy. And to me worst case is more Odor than Broxton, who washed out of the league quickly.

Odor per 162- .236/.289/.726   28 HR/11 SB

Hiura per 162- .251/.327/.800 32 HR/12 SB

Odor isn’t that exciting, and hasn’t been a very good real life player, but he’s had some very solid fantasy seasons. And again to me I think that’s floor-ish. 

I made the Odor comp earlier as well and certainly agree. I would say that's probably a best case / most likely case. And Odor at this point in his career is a fringey deep league bench bat.

Also worth noting Odor's worst year contact rate 73% is 8% better than Hiura's best season. 

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1 hour ago, mudrummer said:

I made the Odor comp earlier as well and certainly agree. I would say that's probably a best case / most likely case. And Odor at this point in his career is a fringey deep league bench bat.

Also worth noting Odor's worst year contact rate 73% is 8% better than Hiura's best season. 

Odor hit tool accoladed are in part granted because flashed great barrel control in the minors. Hiura swing is what got scouts all over him. Odor's average quality on contact is why he ended up being a flop on top of not drawing many walks. There was a lot of weak hits, high hangtime balls between the HRs. Why he has a career .267 BABIP.

Hiura is low ball hitter that has gotten eaten alive by elevated fastballs. A young hitter over-confident in his swing. So the answer for him is an adjustment that allows him to handle elevated fastballs or gets better at laying off those pitches.  All the comps are just noise. He either makes the adjustment and breaks out big, or he keeps struggling.

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I really hate to drop him because of his potential, and then have someone else pick him up, sit him and wait.  Anyone here in a league where he was dropped? Was he picked up or left alone?  I know it’s league specific, but just tryin got get a read.  Personally, I’d keep him, but am getting massacred by injuries and can’t afford to.

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14 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I really hate to drop him because of his potential, and then have someone else pick him up, sit him and wait.  Anyone here in a league where he was dropped? Was he picked up or left alone?  I know it’s league specific, but just tryin got get a read.  Personally, I’d keep him, but am getting massacred by injuries and can’t afford to.

He was dropped in my 14 team, claimed, then dropped again. He’s currently in FA.

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9 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I really hate to drop him because of his potential, and then have someone else pick him up, sit him and wait.  Anyone here in a league where he was dropped? Was he picked up or left alone?  I know it’s league specific, but just tryin got get a read.  Personally, I’d keep him, but am getting massacred by injuries and can’t afford to.

In my competitive 12 team points league with CI, MI, 2 UTIL, 4 bench spots and 2 ILs (so somewhat short benches) he was dropped over a week ago by the best manager in the league and no one has picked him up. Im honestly surprised he's still owned in so many leagues, at this point you might as well just roster Wander Franco.

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8 hours ago, stay_woke said:

In my competitive 12 team points league with CI, MI, 2 UTIL, 4 bench spots and 2 ILs (so somewhat short benches) he was dropped over a week ago by the best manager in the league and no one has picked him up. Im honestly surprised he's still owned in so many leagues, at this point you might as well just roster Wander Franco.

Deep benches here with NA slots in a keeper league...so still owned. 

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