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Keston Hiura 2021 Outlook


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????    Story's first 670 PAs: .253/.328/.503  .352 wOBA  32.5 K  9.2 BB    38 HRs 10 SB Hiura's career 670 PAs: .253/.330/.476  .340 wOBA  32.8 K  7.0 BB  33 HRs 13 SB. Story was a whi

As I suspected they used the short minor stint to make some tweaks.    

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8 hours ago, BradMaddox said:

Any word on call up?

Not any time soon with these strikeouts piling up. He’s destined to fail again until he shows tangible improvements.

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Posted (edited)

3-4 with a homerun double and strikeout tonight

Edit to add: his double was inches away from a home run and his single had an EV of 101mph

Edited by stay_woke
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5 minutes ago, BradMaddox said:

He’s coming up soon. I’m pretty sure the Brewers aren’t waiting for a Vogelbach comeback story 

Reference?

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He's more than likely going to be the prototypical AAAA player until he has better contact skills and get get the K rate to a more reasonable number.  Clearly he has raw skills and tons of ability.  You just can't K at such a rate and be fantasy relevant.  Few guys do it.  I think they should leave him down to work on that, but I can see where a hot streak gets him right back up to the show.

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15 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

He's more than likely going to be the prototypical AAAA player until he has better contact skills and get get the K rate to a more reasonable number.  Clearly he has raw skills and tons of ability.  You just can't K at such a rate and be fantasy relevant.  Few guys do it.  I think they should leave him down to work on that, but I can see where a hot streak gets him right back up to the show.

^ THIS

Fantasy owners are hanging onto a good streak in 2019 & extrapolating that into a season\-long highly useful fantasy asset vs. the truth behind the curtains on the player himself;

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I have watched a lot of brewers games this season and I feel like people under estimate just how bad he was.  I don't care about EV or home runs. He looked like he was swinging with his eyes closed. I am not expecting him up til July. 

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, umphrey said:

I have watched a lot of brewers games this season and I feel like people under estimate just how bad he was.  I don't care about EV or home runs. He looked like he was swinging with his eyes closed. I am not expecting him up til July. 

Personally, I don't think many are underestimating out how bad he looked. He performed terribly.

2 hours ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

^ THIS

Fantasy owners are hanging onto a good streak in 2019

He has prospect pedigree. 9th overall pick in 2017. Some evaluators considered him to be the best hitter in the draft.  Fangraphs put a 60 on his future hit tool in early 2019 and 50 current (in 2019).  This year in the majors, he was like a 20 or 30. If fantasy owners are hanging onto 2019, they are the ones who weren't aware of him until 2019.

I kinda think he figures it out eventually. That being said, not confident it's this year, but I do think he'll be back up at some point (potentially soon) and be better than he was earlier (not that high of a bar).

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Guy gives me the same vibe as Brett Lawrie, anybody remember him?  Big prospect, came out firing for about a 1/4 season with a 950 ops, and then just never hit again and was out of the league 5 years later.   

Also a similar profile in terms of to Hiura in that neither was very good at taking BB, and struck out too much.  It's why one of the most important things to look at for young hitters is their BB% and overall BB/K ratio.  While it may not "count" in your fantasy league if you are doing 5x5 leagues as actual stats, it gives a very good indication just how good a players approach is and odds of big league success.  Not saying there aren't exceptions(Javier Baez is probably the biggest one recently), but a majority of the top tier MLB hitters can take walks. 

In 169 games, Hirua has struck out 224 times vs 47 BBs.  Even in his big rookie season- 25bb and 107ks.  It's just not a good approach, and it makes the odds much greater that a prospect may end up failing long-term if they can't significantly improve. 

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, absknicks said:

brock thinks everyone will figure it out. He still thinks Andrew Benintendi is destined for stardom.

in fairness, most of them do. There have certainly been some misses. I thought AB was a good buy low after his first down year, I was wrong. Never said he was destined for stardrom.  Gausman did. I tend not to write off guys who I was high on quickly.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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3 minutes ago, meh2 said:

9 for his last 13 with 2 home runs and 2 steals. You have my full attention now.

 

Could he be.... wait for it.... figuring it out?

Nice to see, even in AAA, hopefully he's more focused to mash when he gets called up, although I don't blame him considering what's been on his mind.

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1 minute ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He was still striking out 34% of the time in AAA. If he can somehow get that number down into the 20-25% range, look out.

Something tells me he's just swinging a hot bat in AAA and hasn't made the necessary adjustments to cut down the K rate. With that being said a wait and see approach will most likely land Hiura on one of your opponent's teams. 

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It's interesting, i see Rodgers, Hiura, and France all available in some of my leagues.  There's a case for each of them being the one to bet on but there's not a sure thing here.  I too share the concern about Hiura's k rate---he has had MLB success and it seems like he's past the awful start to 2021, but I worry there's a low-BA, medium power guy here who isn't really that valuable.

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If you have an extra spot at the end of your bench, he’s a guy to grab to see if he can start hot.  As discussed, his mother’s health issues weighed on him heavily, maybe he’s ready to rake now that he was able to spend some time with her before starting his AAA rehab and subsequent hot streak there. If he shows the same K issues, throw back to the waiver pile, but his potential upside is certainly tempting. 

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11 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He was still striking out 34% of the time in AAA. If he can somehow get that number down into the 20-25% range, look out.

he struck out 31% of the time in 2019 and he OPSed 930.  i mean Aaron judge has been a 30% k guy his whole career....guys strike out now and can still be wildly successful

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6 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

he struck out 31% of the time in 2019 and he OPSed 930.  i mean Aaron judge has been a 30% k guy his whole career....guys strike out now and can still be wildly successful

Aaron judge also has a career .392 obp

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